11 analysts' median target is $225[FMP target], stock is $199, +12.9% upside potential. After Q4 +2.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +1.1%.
B+ = MoonshotScore 37[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $21.7B[FMP est], EPS $3.82[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q4 EPS +2.3% beat[FMP] but the stock +1.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. John Sauerland promised $121.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[John Sauerland capex transcript].
Watchlist
Policy Growth
policy_growth
Progressive's policies in force grew by 12%, led by personal vehicles with almost 3.5 million more policies, equating to almost 5.5 million more vehicles insured by Progressive.
"Profitability across our businesses was excellent, and policy in force growth was also positive across all the businesses with personal vehicles leading at 12% or almost 3.5 million more policies than last year. That equates to almost 5.5 million more vehicles insured by Progressive versus year-end 2024."
- John Sauerland, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 3, 2026
Market Share Growth
market_share_growth
Progressive gained approximately 2 points of market share in the private passenger auto market through Q3 2025, reaching around 18.5% market share.
"When we look at statutory results for the private passenger auto market through the third quarter of 2025, we believe we picked up close to an additional 2 points of market share versus last year to move to around 18.5% market share."
- John Sauerland, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 3, 2026
Variable Dividend
variable_dividend
Progressive rewarded its shareholders with a $13.50 per share variable dividend in January, largely reflecting robust capital generation in 2025.
"The combination of the strong capital position in which we entered 2025, robust income generation and increased operating leverage allowed for Progressive to reward our shareholders with a $13.50 per share variable dividend in January."
- John Sauerland, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 3, 2026
Operating Leverage Increase
operating_leverage_increase
Progressive has received approval to move its operating leverage up to a maximum of 3.5:1 premiums to surplus at its insurance companies, potentially increasing return on equity.
"As we conveyed in our Form 10-Q for the third quarter of 2025, we have received approval from our regulators that oversee most of our operating entities to move our operating leverage up to a maximum of 3.5:1 premiums to surplus."
- John Sauerland, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 3, 2026
Comprehensive Income
comprehensive_income
Progressive earned almost $13 billion in comprehensive income across its operating and investing units in 2025, equating to a comprehensive return on equity of 40%.
"We earned almost $13 billion in comprehensive income across our operating and investing units or a comprehensive return on equity of 40%."
- John Sauerland, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 3, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q4 (March 3, 2026): EPS $4.96 vs $4.85 est[FMP], +2.3% beat. D+1 movement: +1.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q4: EPS $4.96 vs $4.85 beat[FMP], stock +1.1% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.
Q4 CapEx $121.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 16.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.82[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $121.0M"[John Sauerland]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This PGR (PGR) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.