--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/pgr last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:36:08.952Z --- # The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:36:07.740Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $199.31 (▼ -0.98%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $116.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $192.02 – $289.96 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 15 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $3.82 (-22% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $21.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $225 (+12.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 37/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## The Progressive Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $21.7B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $3.82^{[FMP est]}. 2 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 37 = MoonshotScore 37^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Policy Growth Progressive's policies in force grew by 12%, led by personal vehicles with almost 3.5 million more policies, equating to almost 5.5 million more vehicles insured by Progressive. > "Profitability across our businesses was excellent, and policy in force growth was also positive across all the businesses with personal vehicles leading at 12% or almost 3.5 million more policies than last year. That equates to almost 5.5 million more vehicles insured by Progressive versus year-end 2024." > — John Sauerland, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. Market Share Growth Progressive gained approximately 2 points of market share in the private passenger auto market through Q3 2025, reaching around 18.5% market share. > "When we look at statutory results for the private passenger auto market through the third quarter of 2025, we believe we picked up close to an additional 2 points of market share versus last year to move to around 18.5% market share." > — John Sauerland, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Variable Dividend Progressive rewarded its shareholders with a $13.50 per share variable dividend in January, largely reflecting robust capital generation in 2025. > "The combination of the strong capital position in which we entered 2025, robust income generation and increased operating leverage allowed for Progressive to reward our shareholders with a $13.50 per share variable dividend in January." > — John Sauerland, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. Operating Leverage Increase Progressive has received approval to move its operating leverage up to a maximum of 3.5:1 premiums to surplus at its insurance companies, potentially increasing return on equity. > "As we conveyed in our Form 10-Q for the third quarter of 2025, we have received approval from our regulators that oversee most of our operating entities to move our operating leverage up to a maximum of 3.5:1 premiums to surplus." > — John Sauerland, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 5. Comprehensive Income Progressive earned almost $13 billion in comprehensive income across its operating and investing units in 2025, equating to a comprehensive return on equity of 40%. > "We earned almost $13 billion in comprehensive income across our operating and investing units or a comprehensive return on equity of 40%." > — John Sauerland, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+0.8%, below threshold) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (37.7%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (16.1%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($3.0B, 25.2× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 46.1 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 3.0 | weak | majority sell/hold (29% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +12.9% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 46 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +12.9% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +12.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 46.1 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $203 — hisse %2.0 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $222 — hisse %10.3 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -23% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $4.88 | $4.48 | BEAT | +0.3% | | Q3 FY25 | $4.05 | $4.99 | MISS | -2.1% | | Q4 FY25 | $4.67 | $4.44 | BEAT | -2.1% | | Q1 FY26 | $4.96 | $4.85 | +2.3% EPS | +1.1% | Q4 (March 3, 2026): EPS $4.96 vs $4.85 est^[FMP], +2.3% beat. D+1 movement: +1.1%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $3.82 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $3.82^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $225^{[FMP target]}; high target $259^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $3.82 + CapEx < $121.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $3.82^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $121.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $199^[FMP] and median $225^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $3.71 or CapEx ≥ $121.0M** Threshold: EPS < $3.71^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $199 below SMA200 $222^[FMP], if rejection continues, $189^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $4.96 vs $4.85 beat^[FMP], stock +1.1% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $121.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin 16.1%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $225 (+12.9% upside vs current $199) - **High / Low:** $259 / $216 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 7 / 16 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 11 (last quarter), 90 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. market_share_growth **Claim:** Progressive gained approximately 2 points of market share in the private passenger auto market through Q3 2025, reaching around 18.5% market share. **Evidence (transcript):** "When we look at statutory results for the private passenger auto market through the third quarter of 2025, we believe we picked up close to an additional 2 points of market share versus last year to move to around 18.5% market share." **Numbers:** 2, 18.5% ### 2. comprehensive_income **Claim:** Progressive earned almost $13 billion in comprehensive income across its operating and investing units in 2025, equating to a comprehensive return on equity of 40%. **Evidence (transcript):** "We earned almost $13 billion in comprehensive income across our operating and investing units or a comprehensive return on equity of 40%." **Numbers:** $13 billion, 40% ### 3. policy_growth **Claim:** Progressive's policies in force grew by 12%, led by personal vehicles with almost 3.5 million more policies, equating to almost 5.5 million more vehicles insured by Progressive. **Evidence (transcript):** "Profitability across our businesses was excellent, and policy in force growth was also positive across all the businesses with personal vehicles leading at 12% or almost 3.5 million more policies than last year. That equates to almost 5.5 million more vehicles insured by Progressive versus year-end 2024." **Numbers:** 12%, 3.5 million, 5.5 million, 2024 ### 4. commercial_lines_profitability **Claim:** Commercial Lines had excellent profitability in contrast to what we believe was an underwriting loss for the Commercial Auto insurance industry. **Evidence (transcript):** "Commercial Lines also had an excellent profitability in contrast to what we believe was an underwriting loss for the Commercial Auto insurance industry." **Numbers:** — ### 5. operating_leverage_increase **Claim:** Progressive has received approval to move its operating leverage up to a maximum of 3.5:1 premiums to surplus at its insurance companies, potentially increasing return on equity. **Evidence (transcript):** "As we conveyed in our Form 10-Q for the third quarter of 2025, we have received approval from our regulators that oversee most of our operating entities to move our operating leverage up to a maximum of 3.5:1 premiums to surplus." **Numbers:** 3.5:1, 2025 ### 6. variable_dividend **Claim:** Progressive rewarded its shareholders with a $13.50 per share variable dividend in January, largely reflecting robust capital generation in 2025. **Evidence (transcript):** "The combination of the strong capital position in which we entered 2025, robust income generation and increased operating leverage allowed for Progressive to reward our shareholders with a $13.50 per share variable dividend in January." **Numbers:** $13.50, 2025 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*