--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/phm last_updated: 2026-05-09T13:35:10.194Z --- # PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T13:35:09.610Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $117.55 (▲ 0.62%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $22.4B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $95.20 – $144.50 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 28 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.39 (-21% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $4.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A+ (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $145 (+23.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 37/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## PulteGroup, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $4.0B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.39^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 37 = MoonshotScore 37^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Community Count Growth Guidance PulteGroup, Inc. expects year-over-year community count growth of 3% to 5% in each of the remaining months of 2026. > "Consistent with the guide we provided on our last earnings call, given land investments made in prior years, we expect year-over-year community count growth of 3% to 5% in each of the remaining months of 2026." > — James Ossowski, Executive Vice President and CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Land Investment Guidance PulteGroup, Inc. is projecting land acquisition and development spend of $5.4 billion in 2026. > "Given current market dynamics, and our expected 3% to 5% growth in community count, we are projecting land acquisition and development spend of $5.4 billion in 2026." > — James Ossowski, Executive Vice President and CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Gross Margin Outlook PulteGroup, Inc. maintains its guide for full year 2026 gross margin to be in the range of 24.5% to 25%, although likely toward the lower end of the range. > "As such, we maintain our guide for full year 2026 gross margin to be in the range of 24.5% to 25%, although likely toward the lower end of the range." > — James Ossowski, Executive Vice President and CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Full Year Closing Guidance PulteGroup, Inc. expects to close between 28,500 and 29,000 homes for full year 2026. > "This keeps us on track with our previous guidance on closings, in the range of 28,500 to 29,000 homes for full year 2026." > — James Ossowski, Executive Vice President and CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Share Repurchase Authorization PulteGroup, Inc.'s board authorized an additional $1.5 billion for share repurchases, bringing total availability to $2.1 billion. > "In a separate press release we issued this morning, we announced that our board authorized an additional $1.5 billion for share repurchases, which brings total availability to $2.1 billion." > — James Ossowski, Executive Vice President and CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Q1 Earnings Per Share PulteGroup, Inc. reported earnings of $1.79 per share in Q1 2026. > "PulteGroup, Inc.'s net income for the first quarter was $347 million, or $1.79 per share." > — James Ossowski, Executive Vice President and CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-22.6%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 2.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (24.1%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (12.9%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.0B, 5.3× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 43.4 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (56%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +23.4% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 43 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +23.4% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +23.4% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 43.4 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $122 — hisse %3.8 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $126 — hisse %6.4 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -21% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $3.03 | $2.95 | BEAT | -1.6% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.96 | $2.89 | BEAT | -2.5% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.58 | $2.81 | MISS | -1.7% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.79 | $1.80 | +-0.6% EPS | -2.4% | Q1 (April 23, 2026): EPS $1.79 vs $1.80 est^[FMP], +-0.6% beat. D+1 movement: -2.4%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.39 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.39^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $145^{[FMP target]}; high target $162^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.39 + CapEx < $25396** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.39^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $25396^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $118^[FMP] and median $145^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.32 or CapEx ≥ $25396** Threshold: EPS < $2.32^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $118 below SMA200 $126^[FMP], if rejection continues, $107^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.79 vs $1.80 beat^[FMP], stock -2.4% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $25396^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 12.9%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $145 (+23.4% upside vs current $118) - **High / Low:** $162 / $115 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 9 / 6 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 4 (last quarter), 47 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. q1_earnings_per_share **Claim:** PulteGroup, Inc. reported earnings of $1.79 per share in Q1 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "PulteGroup, Inc.'s net income for the first quarter was $347 million, or $1.79 per share." **Numbers:** $1.79, $347 ### 2. share_repurchase_authorization **Claim:** PulteGroup, Inc.'s board authorized an additional $1.5 billion for share repurchases, bringing total availability to $2.1 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "In a separate press release we issued this morning, we announced that our board authorized an additional $1.5 billion for share repurchases, which brings total availability to $2.1 billion." **Numbers:** $1.5, $2.1 ### 3. land_investment_guidance **Claim:** PulteGroup, Inc. is projecting land acquisition and development spend of $5.4 billion in 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "Given current market dynamics, and our expected 3% to 5% growth in community count, we are projecting land acquisition and development spend of $5.4 billion in 2026." **Numbers:** 3%, 5%, $5.4 ### 4. full_year_closing_guidance **Claim:** PulteGroup, Inc. expects to close between 28,500 and 29,000 homes for full year 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "This keeps us on track with our previous guidance on closings, in the range of 28,500 to 29,000 homes for full year 2026." **Numbers:** 28,500, 29,000, 2026 ### 5. community_count_growth_guidance **Claim:** PulteGroup, Inc. expects year-over-year community count growth of 3% to 5% in each of the remaining months of 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "Consistent with the guide we provided on our last earnings call, given land investments made in prior years, we expect year-over-year community count growth of 3% to 5% in each of the remaining months of 2026." **Numbers:** 3%, 5%, 2026 ### 6. gross_margin_outlook **Claim:** PulteGroup, Inc. maintains its guide for full year 2026 gross margin to be in the range of 24.5% to 25%, although likely toward the lower end of the range. **Evidence (transcript):** "As such, we maintain our guide for full year 2026 gross margin to be in the range of 24.5% to 25%, although likely toward the lower end of the range." **Numbers:** 24.5%, 25%, 2026 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*