--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/pm last_updated: 2026-05-09T17:37:14.836Z --- # Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T17:37:14.206Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $170.99 (▼ -0.07%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $266.5B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $142.11 – $191.30 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 22 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.06 (+8% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $10.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B- (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $190 (+11.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Philip Morris International Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $10.6B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.06^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B- · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 44 = MoonshotScore 44^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Iqos Growth IQOS delivered adjusted in-market sales growth of plus 10.9%, with strong momentum across markets including Europe and Japan. > "Within smoke-free International, IQOS delivered another strong quarter with adjusted in-market sales growth of plus 10.9%. This reflects very good and broad-based momentum across markets and regions, including Europe and Japan." > — Operator, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Veev Growth VEEV reinforced its position as the fastest-growing international brand in Europe, becoming the joint #1 closed pot brand in Europe. > "I am pleased to share that VEEV became the joint #1 close pot brand in Europe in Q4 '25, as estimated by Nielsen [indiscernible] across 19 markets, surpassing long-established players." > — Operator, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Zyn Growth ZYN grew by well over 50% excluding the more mature Nordic market. > "On this latter scope, where the greatest opportunity lies. We estimate offtake volumes grew by well over 50% and gaining share in a dynamic category." > — Operator, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Smoke Free Volume Growth PM reported a plus 9.1% year-over-year increase in smoke-free product shipments, in line with its full year target of high single-digit growth. > "Smoke-free shipments increased by a very good plus 9.1% versus prior year, in line with our full year target of high single-digit growth." > — Operator, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Combustible Pricing PM achieved strong pricing of plus 8.5% in combustible and now forecasts a full year variance of more than 6%. > "Very strong pricing of plus 8.5% was the key driver with notable contribution from Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico. While we expect some moderation notably in the second half of the year due to timing and comparison effect, we now forecast a full year variance of more than 6%." > — Operator, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+0.1%, below threshold) | | Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (68.1%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 4.0 | medium | op margin very strong (38.4%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.8B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 58.7 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | majority buy (69%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +11.1% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 59 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +11.1% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +11.1% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 58.7 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $166 — hisse %2.9 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $164 — hisse %4.2 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +6% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.91 | $1.86 | BEAT | -0.4% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.24 | $2.09 | BEAT | +3.2% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.70 | $1.70 | MISS | -0.5% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.96 | $1.86 | +5.4% EPS | +3.2% | Q1 (April 22, 2026): EPS $1.96 vs $1.86 est^[FMP], +5.4% beat. D+1 movement: +3.2%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.06 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.06^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $190^{[FMP target]}; high target $205^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.06 + CapEx < $353.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.06^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $353.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $171^[FMP] and median $190^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.00 or CapEx ≥ $353.0M** Threshold: EPS < $2.00^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $171 below SMA200 $164^[FMP], if rejection continues, $140^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.96 vs $1.86 beat^[FMP], stock +3.2% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $353.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 38.4%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $190 (+11.1% upside vs current $171) - **High / Low:** $205 / $168 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 11 / 5 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 4 (last quarter), 37 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. fy26_guidance_reiteration **Claim:** PM reconfirmed its previously provided outlook for 2026 revenue and earnings growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "Acknowledging this uncertainty and following a good start to the year in Q1, we are reconfirming the currency-neutral growth outlook we provided in February." **Numbers:** — ### 2. smoke-free_volume_growth **Claim:** PM reported a plus 9.1% year-over-year increase in smoke-free product shipments, in line with its full year target of high single-digit growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "Smoke-free shipments increased by a very good plus 9.1% versus prior year, in line with our full year target of high single-digit growth." **Numbers:** 9.1 ### 3. iqos_growth **Claim:** IQOS delivered adjusted in-market sales growth of plus 10.9%, with strong momentum across markets including Europe and Japan. **Evidence (transcript):** "Within smoke-free International, IQOS delivered another strong quarter with adjusted in-market sales growth of plus 10.9%. This reflects very good and broad-based momentum across markets and regions, including Europe and Japan." **Numbers:** 10.9 ### 4. zyn_growth **Claim:** ZYN grew by well over 50% excluding the more mature Nordic market. **Evidence (transcript):** "On this latter scope, where the greatest opportunity lies. We estimate offtake volumes grew by well over 50% and gaining share in a dynamic category." **Numbers:** 50 ### 5. veev_growth **Claim:** VEEV reinforced its position as the fastest-growing international brand in Europe, becoming the joint #1 closed pot brand in Europe. **Evidence (transcript):** "I am pleased to share that VEEV became the joint #1 close pot brand in Europe in Q4 '25, as estimated by Nielsen [indiscernible] across 19 markets, surpassing long-established players." **Numbers:** 1 ### 6. combustible_pricing **Claim:** PM achieved strong pricing of plus 8.5% in combustible and now forecasts a full year variance of more than 6%. **Evidence (transcript):** "Very strong pricing of plus 8.5% was the key driver with notable contribution from Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico. While we expect some moderation notably in the second half of the year due to timing and comparison effect, we now forecast a full year variance of more than 6%." **Numbers:** 8.5, 6 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*