Phillips 66
PSX - NYSE - $180.26 ▲ +%1.01
-
Earnings Fri 24 Jul

Phillips opens the
books on Friday evening.

7 analysts' median target is $164[FMP target], stock is $180, -9.0% upside potential. After Q1 +0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +3.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
SELL Council 2/6 - Moonshot 30

B = MoonshotScore 30[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $43.3B[FMP est], EPS $5.61[FMP est]. 4 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$5.61 EPS Estimate Last year $2.47 - +136% YoY YoY
4 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 4 quarters

Q1 EPS +0% beat[FMP] but the stock +3.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Kevin Mitchell promised $582.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Kevin Mitchell capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

$17 billion Investor Focus

Debt Reduction Commitment

debt_reduction_commitment

We remain fully committed to a total debt balance of $17 billion by year-end 2027.

"We remain fully committed to a total debt balance of $17 billion by year-end 2027."

- Kevin Mitchell - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
80% Investor Focus

Cpchem Capacity

cpchem_capacity

As a reminder, 80% of CP Chem's capacity is on the U.S. Gulf Coast with competitive ethane feedstock.

"As a reminder, 80% of CP Chem's capacity is on the U.S. Gulf Coast with competitive ethane feedstock."

- Mark Lashier - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
- Investor Focus

Petrochemical Production Decline

petrochemical_production_decline

Reduced petrochemical production globally due to downtime and higher naphtha prices has reduced inventories and will also support margins.

"Finally, reduced petrochemical production globally due to downtime and higher naphtha prices has reduced inventories and will also support margins."

- Mark Lashier - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
- Investor Focus

Us Hydrocarbon Importance

us_hydrocarbon_importance

The importance of U.S. sourced hydrocarbons has increased due to a need for diversification and access to reliable supply.

"First, the importance of U.S. sourced hydrocarbons has increased due to a need for diversification and access to reliable supply."

- Mark Lashier - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
- Investor Focus

Commercial Organization Advantage

commercial_organization_advantage

Our business enhances our asset footprint by optimizing feedstocks, delivering products into the marketplace and capturing value.

"Our business enhances our asset footprint by optimizing feedstocks, delivering products into the marketplace and capturing value."

- Brian Mandell - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
- Investor Focus

Refining Downtime Impact

refining_downtime_impact

Unplanned downtime in global refining assets has reduced inventories and will support margins.

"Second, unplanned downtime in global refining assets has reduced inventories and will support margins."

- Mark Lashier - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 30 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth1.0Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+2.7%, below threshold)
Gross Margin1.0Q1: low margin (10.6%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (8.4%)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-2.8B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 64.4 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment5.0majority buy (50%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 2 bearish (Klarman, Munger), 2 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -9.0%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 64
Klarman value - target upside -9.0%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside -9.0%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
64.4 RSI 64.4 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+6.90 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$169 stock 6.9% above - short-term support
200d MA
$144 stock 25.5% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-87% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$164
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$180
Pre-earnings position
Support
$122
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$122-$164 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Phillips's last 8 quarters: 4 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.38 vs $1.72 est - +2.2%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.52 vs $2.14 est - -0.7%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.47 vs $2.15 est - -0.2%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.49 vs $-0.54 est - +3.3%

Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $0.49 vs $-0.54 est[FMP], +0% beat. D+1 movement: +3.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $5.44 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $0.49 vs $-0.54 beat[FMP], stock +3.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $582.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 8.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $5.61 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $5.61[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $164[FMP target]; high target $180[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $5.61 + CapEx < $582.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $5.61[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $582.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $180[FMP] and median $164[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $5.44 or CapEx >= $582.0M
Threshold: EPS < $5.44[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $180 below SMA200 $144[FMP], if rejection continues, $122[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 7 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$164
12-month median target price (-9.0% upside potential)
10
BUY
9
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$122
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$169 - 50-day MA (above, +6.9%)
$144 - 200-day MA (above, +25.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - PSX Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Friday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Friday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $5.61[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $582.0M"[Kevin Mitchell]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 24, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 25, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 7, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 24, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the PSX earnings preview cover?

This PSX (PSX) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in PSX earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.