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last_updated: 2026-05-05T20:08:07.824Z
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# Phillips 66 (PSX) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T20:08:07.495Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $180.26 (▲ 1.01%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $72.3B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $104.83 – $190.61 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Fri 24 Jul | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $5.61 (+136% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $43.3B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 4/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $164 (-9.0% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 30/100 | derived |
| Council | 2/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived |

## Phillips 66 — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$43.3B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$5.61</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 4 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 30

= MoonshotScore <strong>30</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>2/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (6 metrics)

### 1. Debt Reduction Commitment

We remain fully committed to a total debt balance of $17 billion by year-end 2027.

> "We remain fully committed to a total debt balance of $17 billion by year-end 2027."
> — Kevin Mitchell, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Cpchem Capacity

As a reminder, 80% of CP Chem's capacity is on the U.S. Gulf Coast with competitive ethane feedstock.

> "As a reminder, 80% of CP Chem's capacity is on the U.S. Gulf Coast with competitive ethane feedstock."
> — Mark Lashier, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Petrochemical Production Decline

Reduced petrochemical production globally due to downtime and higher naphtha prices has reduced inventories and will also support margins.

> "Finally, reduced petrochemical production globally due to downtime and higher naphtha prices has reduced inventories and will also support margins."
> — Mark Lashier, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Us Hydrocarbon Importance

The importance of U.S. sourced hydrocarbons has increased due to a need for diversification and access to reliable supply.

> "First, the importance of U.S. sourced hydrocarbons has increased due to a need for diversification and access to reliable supply."
> — Mark Lashier, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Commercial Organization Advantage

Our business enhances our asset footprint by optimizing feedstocks, delivering products into the marketplace and capturing value.

> "Our business enhances our asset footprint by optimizing feedstocks, delivering products into the marketplace and capturing value."
> — Brian Mandell, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 6. Refining Downtime Impact

Unplanned downtime in global refining assets has reduced inventories and will support margins.

> "Second, unplanned downtime in global refining assets has reduced inventories and will support margins."
> — Mark Lashier, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 1.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+2.7%, below threshold) |
| Gross Margin | 1.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (10.6%, capital-intensive or commodity) |
| Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (8.4%) |
| Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-2.8B, external financing needed) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 64.4 positive momentum, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (50%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -9.0% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 64 |
| Klarman | bear | value · target upside -9.0% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 |
| Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -9.0% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Overvalued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Weak
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 64.4 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50d MA:** $169 — hisse %6.9 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $144 — hisse %25.5 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -87%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $2.38 | $1.72 | BEAT | +2.2% |
| Q3 FY25 | $2.52 | $2.14 | BEAT | -0.7% |
| Q4 FY25 | $2.47 | $2.15 | BEAT | -0.2% |
| Q1 FY26 | $0.49 | $-0.54 | +-190.3% EPS | +3.3% |

Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $0.49 vs $-0.54 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +0% beat. D+1 movement: +3.3%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $5.61 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $5.61<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $164<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $180<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $5.61 + CapEx < $582.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $5.61<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $582.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $180<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $164<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $5.44 or CapEx ≥ $582.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $5.44<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $180 below SMA200 $144<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $122<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $0.49 vs $-0.54 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +3.3% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $582.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q1 op margin 8.4%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $164 (-9.0% upside vs current $180)
- **High / Low:** $180 / $140
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 10 / 9 / 1
- **Analyst count:** 7 (last quarter), 57 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. us_hydrocarbon_importance

**Claim:** The importance of U.S. sourced hydrocarbons has increased due to a need for diversification and access to reliable supply.

**Evidence (transcript):** "First, the importance of U.S. sourced hydrocarbons has increased due to a need for diversification and access to reliable supply."

**Numbers:** —

### 2. refining_downtime_impact

**Claim:** Unplanned downtime in global refining assets has reduced inventories and will support margins.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Second, unplanned downtime in global refining assets has reduced inventories and will support margins."

**Numbers:** —

### 3. petrochemical_production_decline

**Claim:** Reduced petrochemical production globally due to downtime and higher naphtha prices has reduced inventories and will also support margins.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Finally, reduced petrochemical production globally due to downtime and higher naphtha prices has reduced inventories and will also support margins."

**Numbers:** —

### 4. cpchem_capacity

**Claim:** As a reminder, 80% of CP Chem's capacity is on the U.S. Gulf Coast with competitive ethane feedstock.

**Evidence (transcript):** "As a reminder, 80% of CP Chem's capacity is on the U.S. Gulf Coast with competitive ethane feedstock."

**Numbers:** 80%

### 5. commercial_organization_advantage

**Claim:** Our business enhances our asset footprint by optimizing feedstocks, delivering products into the marketplace and capturing value.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Our business enhances our asset footprint by optimizing feedstocks, delivering products into the marketplace and capturing value."

**Numbers:** —

### 6. debt_reduction_commitment

**Claim:** We remain fully committed to a total debt balance of $17 billion by year-end 2027.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We remain fully committed to a total debt balance of $17 billion by year-end 2027."

**Numbers:** $17 billion, 2027


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*