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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/rcl
last_updated: 2026-05-09T17:19:16.807Z
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# Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T17:19:16.371Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $275.24 (▼ -2.00%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $73.8B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $232.60 – $366.50 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Tue 4 Aug | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $3.99 (-9% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $4.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $350 (+27.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 46/100 | derived |
| Council | 4/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived |

## Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations

Q1 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$4.8B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$3.99</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 1 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 46

= MoonshotScore <strong>46</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>4/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (4 metrics)

### 1. Net Yield Guidance

Royal Caribbean adjusted its full year net yield expectations to grow 1.5% to 2.5% due to geopolitical events.

> "Due to the geopolitical events affecting itineraries in the Mediterranean and the West Coast of Mexico, we've adjusted our full year net yield expectations."
> — Jason Liberty, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 2. EPS Guidance

Royal Caribbean expects full year adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $17.10 to $17.50 for 2026.

> "Full year adjusted earnings per share is expected to grow double digits and be in the range of $17.10 to $17.50."
> — Jason Liberty, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Digital Booking Growth

Royal Caribbean's digital penetration of bookings has more than doubled since 2019, with most of that growth coming through our app.

> "Digital penetration of bookings has more than doubled over that period with most of that growth coming through our app."
> — Jason Liberty, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Fuel Cost Impact

Royal Caribbean anticipates that increased fuel costs will reduce 2026 earnings by roughly $0.62 per share.

> "While we are approximately 60% hedged for 2026, fuel prices at current spot levels are expected to increase costs by roughly $0.62 per share this year."
> — Jason Liberty, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-1.9%, contraction) |
| Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (49.5%) |
| Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (26.1%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.3B, 2.7× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 51.7 balanced, 50d below |
| News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (73%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +27.2% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 52 |
| Klarman | bull | value · target upside +27.2% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +27.2% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Undervalued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Strong
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 51.7 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf
- **50d MA:** $275 — hisse %0.1 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200d MA:** $298 — hisse %7.6 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** -27%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $4.38 | $4.09 | BEAT | -1.0% |
| Q3 FY25 | $5.75 | $5.69 | BEAT | -4.4% |
| Q4 FY25 | $2.80 | $2.80 | MISS | -6.2% |
| Q1 FY26 | $3.60 | $3.24 | +11.1% EPS | +0.7% |

Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $3.60 vs $3.24 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +11.1% beat. D+1 movement: +0.7%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q1 EPS > $3.99 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $3.99<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $350<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $425<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $3.99 + CapEx < $500.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $3.99<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q1 CapEx < $500.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $275<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $350<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $3.87 or CapEx ≥ $500.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $3.87<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $275 below SMA200 $298<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $253<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $3.60 vs $3.24 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +0.7% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $500.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q1 op margin 26.1%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $350 (+27.2% upside vs current $275)
- **High / Low:** $425 / $296
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 19 / 7 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 10 (last quarter), 81 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. revenue_growth

**Claim:** Royal Caribbean Group expects double-digit revenue growth driven by strong demand.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We expect to drive another year of double-digit revenue and earnings growth, supported by a strong book position fortified balance sheet and robust cash flow generation."

**Numbers:** —

### 2. net_yield_guidance

**Claim:** Royal Caribbean adjusted its full year net yield expectations to grow 1.5% to 2.5% due to geopolitical events.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Due to the geopolitical events affecting itineraries in the Mediterranean and the West Coast of Mexico, we've adjusted our full year net yield expectations."

**Numbers:** 1.5%, 2.5%

### 3. EPS_guidance

**Claim:** Royal Caribbean expects full year adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $17.10 to $17.50 for 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Full year adjusted earnings per share is expected to grow double digits and be in the range of $17.10 to $17.50."

**Numbers:** $17.10, $17.50

### 4. fuel_cost_impact

**Claim:** Royal Caribbean anticipates that increased fuel costs will reduce 2026 earnings by roughly $0.62 per share.

**Evidence (transcript):** "While we are approximately 60% hedged for 2026, fuel prices at current spot levels are expected to increase costs by roughly $0.62 per share this year."

**Numbers:** 60%, $0.62

### 5. digital_booking_growth

**Claim:** Royal Caribbean's digital penetration of bookings has more than doubled since 2019, with most of that growth coming through our app.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Digital penetration of bookings has more than doubled over that period with most of that growth coming through our app."

**Numbers:** 2019

### 6. pre-cruise_bookings

**Claim:** At Royal Caribbean, more than half of onboard revenue is booked before guests ever step on board.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Today, more than half of onboard revenue is booked before guests ever step on board with the vast majority of those purchases made digitally."

**Numbers:** —


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*