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# Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T11:53:16.338Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $154.33 (▲ 0.51%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $30.4B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $138.82 – $177.66 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Wed 22 Jul | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $2.91 (+33% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $3.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 3/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $169 (+9.5% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 59/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Raymond James Financial, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$3.9B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$2.91</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 3 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 59

= MoonshotScore <strong>59</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (4 metrics)

### 1. Record Quarterly Revenues

Raymond James achieved record quarterly revenues of $3.86 billion, driven by a focus on its long-term strategy.

> "Continued focus on our long-term strategy drove record quarterly revenues of $3.86 billion, representing growth of 13% over the prior year quarter and 3% above the preceding quarter."
> — Paul Shoukry, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 2. Adviser Recruiting

Raymond James recruited financial advisers to our domestic independent contractor and employee channels, with trailing 12-month production totaling $141 million, nearly $21 billion of client assets at their previous firms.

> "We recruited financial advisers to our domestic independent contractor and employee channels, with trailing 12-month production totaling $141 million, nearly $21 billion of client assets at their previous firms."
> — Paul Shoukry, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 3. Private Client Group Assets

Raymond James' Private Client Group ended the quarter with $1.7 trillion of client assets under administration, down slightly compared to the preceding quarter, but representing year-over-year growth of 15%.

> "In the Private Client Group, we ended the quarter with $1.7 trillion of client assets under administration down slightly compared to the preceding quarter, but representing year-over-year growth of 15%."
> — Paul Shoukry, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 4. Domestic Net New Assets

In the fiscal second quarter, Raymond James' quarterly domestic net new assets were $23 billion, representing a 5.8% annualized growth rate.

> "In the fiscal second quarter, quarterly domestic net new assets were $23 billion, representing a 5.8% annualized growth rate."
> — Paul Shoukry, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 6.0 | medium | Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+12.6%) |
| Gross Margin | 9.0 | strong | Q2: very high margin (90.5%, software/cloud territory) |
| Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (17.2%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.1B, 23.4× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 52.0 balanced, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 4.0 | medium | mixed (43% buy) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +9.5% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 52 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +9.5% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +9.5% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Weak
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 52.0 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf
- **50d MA:** $150 — hisse %3.0 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $161 — hisse %4.1 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** +9%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY25 | $2.18 | $2.37 | MISS | +3.7% |
| Q4 FY25 | $3.11 | $2.83 | BEAT | -0.6% |
| Q1 FY26 | $2.86 | $2.83 | BEAT | -0.4% |
| Q2 FY26 | $2.83 | $2.76 | +2.5% EPS | -0.7% |

Q2 (April 22, 2026): EPS $2.83 vs $2.76 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +2.5% beat. D+1 movement: -0.7%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $2.91 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $2.91<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $169<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $172<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $2.91 + CapEx < $45.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.91<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $45.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $154<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $169<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $2.82 or CapEx ≥ $45.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $2.82<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $154 below SMA200 $161<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $137<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q2: EPS $2.83 vs $2.76 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock -0.7% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $45.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q2 op margin 17.2%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $169 (+9.5% upside vs current $154)
- **High / Low:** $172 / $166
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 6 / 8 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 6 (last quarter), 36 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. record_quarterly_revenues

**Claim:** Raymond James achieved record quarterly revenues of $3.86 billion, driven by a focus on its long-term strategy.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Continued focus on our long-term strategy drove record quarterly revenues of $3.86 billion, representing growth of 13% over the prior year quarter and 3% above the preceding quarter."

**Numbers:** $3.86 billion, 13%, 3%

### 2. private_client_group_assets

**Claim:** Raymond James' Private Client Group ended the quarter with $1.7 trillion of client assets under administration, down slightly compared to the preceding quarter, but representing year-over-year growth of 15%.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In the Private Client Group, we ended the quarter with $1.7 trillion of client assets under administration down slightly compared to the preceding quarter, but representing year-over-year growth of 15%."

**Numbers:** $1.7 trillion, 15%

### 3. domestic_net_new_assets

**Claim:** In the fiscal second quarter, Raymond James' quarterly domestic net new assets were $23 billion, representing a 5.8% annualized growth rate.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In the fiscal second quarter, quarterly domestic net new assets were $23 billion, representing a 5.8% annualized growth rate."

**Numbers:** $23 billion, 5.8%

### 4. adviser_recruiting

**Claim:** Raymond James recruited financial advisers to our domestic independent contractor and employee channels, with trailing 12-month production totaling $141 million, nearly $21 billion of client assets at their previous firms.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We recruited financial advisers to our domestic independent contractor and employee channels, with trailing 12-month production totaling $141 million, nearly $21 billion of client assets at their previous firms."

**Numbers:** $141 million, $21 billion

### 5. ai_operations_agent

**Claim:** Raymond James' proprietary AI operations agent provides curated natural language answers and guidance to operational questions, helping advisers deepen client relationships.

**Evidence (transcript):** "For example, our proprietary AI operations agent provides curated natural language answers and guidance to operational questions while intelligently evolving based on user activities and preferences."

**Numbers:** —


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*