--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/rl last_updated: 2026-05-09T13:54:18.795Z --- # Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-21 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T13:54:18.383Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $358.45 (▲ 1.39%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $21.7B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $258.13 – $393.41 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 21 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.49 (+10% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $1.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $424 (+18.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 67/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Ralph Lauren Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $1.8B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.49^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 67 = MoonshotScore 67^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Gross Margin Outlook Ralph Lauren expects gross margin to expand approximately 10 to 30 basis points for FY26, with growth in AUR, favorable cotton costs, and geographic mix more than offsetting pressure from tariffs. > "We now anticipate constant currency gross margin to expand about 10 to 30 basis points for the full year, with further growth in AUR, favorable cotton costs and geographic mix more than offsetting pressure from tariffs." > — Justin Picicci, Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Fy26 Revenue Guidance Ralph Lauren raised its FY26 revenue growth outlook to approximately 5% to 7% due to strong first-half performance. > "For fiscal '26, we now expect constant currency revenues to increase in a range of approximately 5% to 7%, up from low to mid-single digits previously." > — Justin Picicci, Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Dtc Growth Ralph Lauren delivered another strong quarter of comp growth across regions, with global comps increasing 13%, with double-digit growth in both digital sites and physical stores. > "Within DTC, which comprises the majority of our business, we delivered another strong quarter of comp growth across regions. Global comps increased 13%, above our expectations, with double-digit growth in both our digital sites and physical stores." > — Patrice Louvet, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. China Growth Ralph Lauren's sales in China increased by more than 30% this quarter, driven by a strong consumer response. > "China grew more than 30% in the quarter, ahead of our outlook with a strong consumer response to our brand building activities, including our Summer of Sports campaigns and amplification of our New York Fashion Show." > — Justin Picicci, Chief Financial Officer, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Marketing Expenses Ralph Lauren now expects marketing as a percentage of sales to be approximately 7.5% in fiscal '26, in line with its long-range plan. > "We now expect marketing as a percentage of sales to be approximately 7.5% in fiscal '26, in line with our long-range plan." > — Justin Picicci, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q3 vs Q4: fast growth (+41.8%) | | Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q3: very high margin (69.9%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (20.9%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.7B, 9.3× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 47.3 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (84%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +18.1% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 47 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +18.1% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +18.1% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 47.3 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $356 — hisse %0.6 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $340 — hisse %5.6 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +21% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q4 FY25 | $2.27 | $2.04 | BEAT | -1.2% | | Q1 FY26 | $3.77 | $3.51 | BEAT | +1.7% | | Q2 FY26 | $3.79 | $3.45 | BEAT | +3.1% | | Q3 FY26 | $6.22 | $5.80 | +7.2% EPS | +1.2% | Q2 (November 6, 2025): EPS $6.22 vs $5.80 est^[FMP], +7.2% beat. D+1 movement: +1.2%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.49 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.49^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $424^{[FMP target]}; high target $480^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.49 + CapEx < $75.6M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.49^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $75.6M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $358^[FMP] and median $424^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.42 or CapEx ≥ $75.6M** Threshold: EPS < $2.42^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $358 below SMA200 $340^[FMP], if rejection continues, $289^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $6.22 vs $5.80 beat^[FMP], stock +1.2% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q3 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $75.6M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 20.9%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $424 (+18.1% upside vs current $358) - **High / Low:** $480 / $400 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 16 / 2 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 1 (last quarter), 55 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. fy26_revenue_guidance **Claim:** Ralph Lauren raised its FY26 revenue growth outlook to approximately 5% to 7% due to strong first-half performance. **Evidence (transcript):** "For fiscal '26, we now expect constant currency revenues to increase in a range of approximately 5% to 7%, up from low to mid-single digits previously." **Numbers:** 5%, 7% ### 2. asia_growth **Claim:** Ralph Lauren raised its Asia revenue growth outlook to high single to low double digits for both the second half and the full year, driven by strong performance in Asia. **Evidence (transcript):** "And we now expect Asia to be up high single to low double digits for both the second half and the full year, up from high single digits previously." **Numbers:** — ### 3. china_growth **Claim:** Ralph Lauren's sales in China increased by more than 30% this quarter, driven by a strong consumer response. **Evidence (transcript):** "China grew more than 30% in the quarter, ahead of our outlook with a strong consumer response to our brand building activities, including our Summer of Sports campaigns and amplification of our New York Fashion Show." **Numbers:** 30% ### 4. dtc_growth **Claim:** Ralph Lauren delivered another strong quarter of comp growth across regions, with global comps increasing 13%, with double-digit growth in both digital sites and physical stores. **Evidence (transcript):** "Within DTC, which comprises the majority of our business, we delivered another strong quarter of comp growth across regions. Global comps increased 13%, above our expectations, with double-digit growth in both our digital sites and physical stores." **Numbers:** 13% ### 5. gross_margin_outlook **Claim:** Ralph Lauren expects gross margin to expand approximately 10 to 30 basis points for FY26, with growth in AUR, favorable cotton costs, and geographic mix more than offsetting pressure from tariffs. **Evidence (transcript):** "We now anticipate constant currency gross margin to expand about 10 to 30 basis points for the full year, with further growth in AUR, favorable cotton costs and geographic mix more than offsetting pressure from tariffs." **Numbers:** 10, 30 ### 6. marketing_expenses **Claim:** Ralph Lauren now expects marketing as a percentage of sales to be approximately 7.5% in fiscal '26, in line with its long-range plan. **Evidence (transcript):** "We now expect marketing as a percentage of sales to be approximately 7.5% in fiscal '26, in line with our long-range plan." **Numbers:** 7.5% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*