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last_updated: 2026-05-09T17:30:37.583Z
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# Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-21 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q3 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T17:30:37.126Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $225.81 (▲ 0.59%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $73.0B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $124.49 – $231.16 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Thu 21 May | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $1.65 (+12% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $5.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $205 (-9.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 60/100 | derived |
| Council | 2/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived |

## Ross Stores, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$5.6B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$1.65</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 8 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 60

= MoonshotScore <strong>60</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>2/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (5 metrics)

### 1. Comp Sales Guidance Q4

Ross Stores expects comparable store sales to increase 3% to 4% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.

> "As a result, for the thirteen weeks ending January 31, 2026, we are raising our comparable store sales forecast to be up 3% to 4% with earnings per share in the range of $1.77 to $1.85."
> — Bill Sheehan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q3 FY2025

### 2. Fy25 Eps Guidance

Ross Stores is increasing its earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2025 to be in the range of $6.38 to $6.46.

> "Based on our year-to-date results, and updated fourth quarter forecast, we are increasing our earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2025 to be in the range of $6.38 to $6.46."
> — Bill Sheehan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q3 FY2025

### 3. Tariff Impact Negligible Q4

Ross Stores now forecasts the fourth quarter impact to be negligible, leading to a full-year cost of approximately $0.15 per share.

> "As for tariffs, we now forecast the fourth quarter impact to be negligible, leading to a full-year cost of approximately $0.15 per share."
> — Bill Sheehan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q3 FY2025

### 4. Inventory Levels Healthy

We feel very good about the health and levels of our inventory, and are well positioned to deliver a broad assortment of values this holiday selling season.

> "We feel very good about the health and levels of our inventory, and are well positioned to deliver a broad assortment of values this holiday selling season."
> — Jim Conroy, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q3 FY2025

### 5. Branded Strategy Ladies Business

Ross Stores' branded strategy has particularly helped the ladies' business, which further accelerated this quarter and comped above the chain average.

> "This strategy has particularly helped the ladies' business, which further accelerated this quarter and comped above the chain average."
> — Jim Conroy, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q3 FY2025


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+33.1%) |
| Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q4: low margin (28.0%, capital-intensive or commodity) |
| Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (12.3%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.9B, 4.6× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 54.7 balanced, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (78%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -9.2% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 55 |
| Klarman | bear | value · target upside -9.2% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -9.2% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Overvalued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Weak
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 54.7 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf
- **50d MA:** $218 — hisse %3.5 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $180 — hisse %25.7 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** +71%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | $1.47 | $1.44 | BEAT | -9.8% |
| Q2 FY25 | $1.56 | $1.53 | BEAT | +1.1% |
| Q3 FY25 | $1.58 | $1.42 | BEAT | +8.4% |
| Q4 FY25 | $2.00 | $1.90 | +5.3% EPS | +8.0% |

Q3 (November 20, 2025): EPS $2.00 vs $1.90 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +5.3% beat. D+1 movement: +8.0%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $1.65 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $1.65<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $205<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $290<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $1.65 + CapEx < $200.9M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.65<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $200.9M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $226<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $205<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $1.60 or CapEx ≥ $200.9M**

Threshold: EPS < $1.60<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $226 below SMA200 $180<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $153<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q3: EPS $2.00 vs $1.90 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +8.0% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q3 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25

### CapEx shock
Q3 CapEx $200.9M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q3 op margin 12.3%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $205 (-9.2% upside vs current $226)
- **High / Low:** $290 / $195
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 14 / 3 / 1
- **Analyst count:** 6 (last quarter), 87 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. comp_sales_guidance_q4

**Claim:** Ross Stores expects comparable store sales to increase 3% to 4% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "As a result, for the thirteen weeks ending January 31, 2026, we are raising our comparable store sales forecast to be up 3% to 4% with earnings per share in the range of $1.77 to $1.85."

**Numbers:** 3%, 4%, 2026, $1.77, $1.85

### 2. fy25_eps_guidance

**Claim:** Ross Stores is increasing its earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2025 to be in the range of $6.38 to $6.46.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Based on our year-to-date results, and updated fourth quarter forecast, we are increasing our earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2025 to be in the range of $6.38 to $6.46."

**Numbers:** 2025, $6.38, $6.46

### 3. tariff_impact_negligible_q4

**Claim:** Ross Stores now forecasts the fourth quarter impact to be negligible, leading to a full-year cost of approximately $0.15 per share.

**Evidence (transcript):** "As for tariffs, we now forecast the fourth quarter impact to be negligible, leading to a full-year cost of approximately $0.15 per share."

**Numbers:** $0.15

### 4. branded_strategy_ladies_business

**Claim:** Ross Stores' branded strategy has particularly helped the ladies' business, which further accelerated this quarter and comped above the chain average.

**Evidence (transcript):** "This strategy has particularly helped the ladies' business, which further accelerated this quarter and comped above the chain average."

**Numbers:** —

### 5. inventory_levels_healthy

**Claim:** We feel very good about the health and levels of our inventory, and are well positioned to deliver a broad assortment of values this holiday selling season.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We feel very good about the health and levels of our inventory, and are well positioned to deliver a broad assortment of values this holiday selling season."

**Numbers:** —


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q3 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*