--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/rsg last_updated: 2026-05-05T20:39:45.272Z --- # Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T20:39:44.912Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $203.88 (▼ -1.29%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $63.0B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $201.42 – $258.75 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 7 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.64 (+4% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $4.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $240 (+17.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 39/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Republic Services, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $4.1B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.64^{[FMP est]}. 2 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 39 = MoonshotScore 39^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Revenue Growth 2025 Republic Services achieved revenue growth of 3.5% in 2025. > "During 2025, we achieved revenue growth of 3.5%, generated adjusted EBITDA growth of nearly 7%, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 90 basis points, delivered adjusted earnings per share of $7.02, produced $2.43 billion of adjusted free cash flow and increased adjusted free cash flow conversion by 200 basis points to 45.8%." > — Jon Vander Ark, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. EBITDA Margin Expansion 2025 Republic Services expanded its adjusted EBITDA margin by 90 basis points in 2025. > "During 2025, we achieved revenue growth of 3.5%, generated adjusted EBITDA growth of nearly 7%, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 90 basis points, delivered adjusted earnings per share of $7.02, produced $2.43 billion of adjusted free cash flow and increased adjusted free cash flow conversion by 200 basis points to 45.8%." > — Jon Vander Ark, CEO, Risk Indicator · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Free Cash Flow Conversion 2025 Republic Services increased its adjusted free cash flow conversion by 200 basis points to 45.8% in 2025. > "During 2025, we achieved revenue growth of 3.5%, generated adjusted EBITDA growth of nearly 7%, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 90 basis points, delivered adjusted earnings per share of $7.02, produced $2.43 billion of adjusted free cash flow and increased adjusted free cash flow conversion by 200 basis points to 45.8%." > — Jon Vander Ark, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. 2026 Revenue Guidance Republic Services expects full year revenue in a range of $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion for 2026. > "More specifically, we expect full range revenue in a range of $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion." > — Jon Vander Ark, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 5. 2026 Free Cash Flow Guidance Republic Services expects to generate adjusted free cash flow in a range of $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion for 2026. > "And we expect to generate adjusted free cash flow in a range of $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion." > — Jon Vander Ark, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 6. 2026 EBITDA Guidance Republic Services expects adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $5.475 billion to $5.525 billion for 2026. > "Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $5.475 billion to $5.525 billion." > — Jon Vander Ark, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 2.0 | weak | Q4 vs Q1: moderate growth (+3.2%) | | Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q4: average margin (30.1%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (19.5%) | | Cash Runway | 7.0 | strong | FCF positive but absorbed ($0.4B vs $0.6B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 36.2 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (59%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +17.7% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 36 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +17.7% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +17.7% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 36.2 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $218 — hisse %6.4 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $221 — hisse %7.6 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -16% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $1.58 | $1.53 | BEAT | +1.2% | | Q2 FY25 | $1.77 | $1.77 | MISS | -5.8% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.90 | $1.83 | BEAT | -0.8% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.76 | $1.62 | +8.6% EPS | -2.0% | Q4 (February 17, 2026): EPS $1.76 vs $1.62 est^[FMP], +8.6% beat. D+1 movement: -2.0%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.64 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.64^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $240^{[FMP target]}; high target $255^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.64 + CapEx < $577.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.64^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $577.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $204^[FMP] and median $240^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.59 or CapEx ≥ $577.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.59^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $204 below SMA200 $221^[FMP], if rejection continues, $187^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $1.76 vs $1.62 beat^[FMP], stock -2.0% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $577.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin 19.5%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $240 (+17.7% upside vs current $204) - **High / Low:** $255 / $220 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 16 / 11 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 3 (last quarter), 45 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. revenue_growth_2025 **Claim:** Republic Services achieved revenue growth of 3.5% in 2025. **Evidence (transcript):** "During 2025, we achieved revenue growth of 3.5%, generated adjusted EBITDA growth of nearly 7%, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 90 basis points, delivered adjusted earnings per share of $7.02, produced $2.43 billion of adjusted free cash flow and increased adjusted free cash flow conversion by 200 basis points to 45.8%." **Numbers:** 3.5%, 7%, 90, $7.02, $2.43 billion, 200, 45.8% ### 2. EBITDA_margin_expansion_2025 **Claim:** Republic Services expanded its adjusted EBITDA margin by 90 basis points in 2025. **Evidence (transcript):** "During 2025, we achieved revenue growth of 3.5%, generated adjusted EBITDA growth of nearly 7%, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 90 basis points, delivered adjusted earnings per share of $7.02, produced $2.43 billion of adjusted free cash flow and increased adjusted free cash flow conversion by 200 basis points to 45.8%." **Numbers:** 3.5%, 7%, 90, $7.02, $2.43 billion, 200, 45.8% ### 3. free_cash_flow_conversion_2025 **Claim:** Republic Services increased its adjusted free cash flow conversion by 200 basis points to 45.8% in 2025. **Evidence (transcript):** "During 2025, we achieved revenue growth of 3.5%, generated adjusted EBITDA growth of nearly 7%, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 90 basis points, delivered adjusted earnings per share of $7.02, produced $2.43 billion of adjusted free cash flow and increased adjusted free cash flow conversion by 200 basis points to 45.8%." **Numbers:** 3.5%, 7%, 90, $7.02, $2.43 billion, 200, 45.8% ### 4. 2026_revenue_guidance **Claim:** Republic Services expects full year revenue in a range of $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion for 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "More specifically, we expect full range revenue in a range of $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion." **Numbers:** $17.05 billion, $17.15 billion ### 5. 2026_EBITDA_guidance **Claim:** Republic Services expects adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $5.475 billion to $5.525 billion for 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $5.475 billion to $5.525 billion." **Numbers:** $5.475 billion, $5.525 billion ### 6. 2026_EPS_guidance **Claim:** Republic Services expects to deliver adjusted earnings per share in a range of $7.20 to $7.28 for 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect to deliver adjusted earnings per share in a range of $7.20 to $7.28." **Numbers:** $7.20, $7.28 ### 7. 2026_free_cash_flow_guidance **Claim:** Republic Services expects to generate adjusted free cash flow in a range of $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion for 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "And we expect to generate adjusted free cash flow in a range of $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion." **Numbers:** $2.52 billion, $2.56 billion --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*