--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/sbac last_updated: 2026-05-09T13:11:13.414Z --- # SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T13:11:12.982Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $218.17 (▼ -0.21%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $23.1B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $162.41 – $243.16 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Mon 3 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.84 (-12% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $706.1M | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B- (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $230 (+5.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 54/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## SBA Communications Corporation — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $706.1M^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.84^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B- · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 54 = MoonshotScore 54^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Tower Cash Flow Margins SBA continued to operate efficiently in the first quarter, controlling direct costs and achieving company-wide tower cash flow margins of approximately 80%. > "In the first quarter, we continue to operate efficiently, controlling direct costs and achieving company-wide tower cash flow margins of approximately 80%." > — Marc Montagner, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Dividend Increase SBA's Board of Directors declared its first quarter dividend of $1.25 per share, payable on June 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 22, 2026. This dividend represents an increase of approximately 13% over the dividend paid in the first quarter of 2025. > "And today, we announced that our Board of Directors declared our first quarter dividend of $1.25 per share, payable on June 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 22, 2026. This dividend represents an increase of approximately 13% over the dividend paid in the first quarter of 2025" > — Marc Montagner, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Increased Full Year Outlook SBA is increasing its full year outlook for all key metrics, including site leasing revenue, cash flow, adjusted EBITDA, AFFO and AFFO per share, given the solid start to the year. > "Given the solid start of the year, we are increasing our full year outlook for all key metrics, including site leasing revenue, our cash flow, adjusted EBITDA, AFFO and AFFO per share as compared to our initial 2026 guidance." > — Marc Montagner, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Us Leasing Activity In the U.S., SBA added approximately $10 million of quarterly new lease and amendment billings year-over-year, with the bulk of the activity coming from new colocations as carriers both densify and expanded network footprint. > "In the U.S. we added approximately $10 million of quarterly new lease and amendment billings year-over-year. The bulk of the activity continues to come from new colocations as carrier both densify and expanded network footprint." > — Marc Montagner, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Investment Grade Issuer SBA continues to be committed to becoming an investment-grade issuer and anticipate making our inaugural investment-grade bond issuance at some point in 2026, dependent market conditions. > "We also continue to be committed to becoming an investment-grade issuer and anticipate making our inaugural investment-grade bond issuance at some point in 2026, dependent market conditions." > — Marc Montagner, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. International Churn Peak SBA believes 2026 will be the peak year for international churn and expect improvement in our churn rate over the next several years. > "We believe 2026 will be the peak year for international churn and expect improvement in our churn rate over the next several years." > — Marc Montagner, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+0.6%, below threshold) | | Gross Margin | 8.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (75.6%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 5.0 | medium | op margin very strong (48.7%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.2B, 4.3× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 57.6 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (50%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +5.4% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 58 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +5.4% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +5.4% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 57.6 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $201 — hisse %8.6 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $199 — hisse %9.9 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -47% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.09 | $3.12 | MISS | -4.9% | | Q3 FY25 | $3.32 | $3.04 | BEAT | +1.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $3.47 | $3.89 | MISS | +4.7% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.74 | $1.94 | +-10.3% EPS | +2.4% | Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $1.74 vs $1.94 est^[FMP], +-10.3% beat. D+1 movement: +2.4%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $1.84 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.84^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $230^{[FMP target]}; high target $260^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.84 + CapEx < $48.4M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.84^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $48.4M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $218^[FMP] and median $230^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.78 or CapEx ≥ $48.4M** Threshold: EPS < $1.78^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $218 below SMA200 $199^[FMP], if rejection continues, $169^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.74 vs $1.94 beat^[FMP], stock +2.4% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $48.4M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 48.7%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $230 (+5.4% upside vs current $218) - **High / Low:** $260 / $205 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 11 / 11 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 4 (last quarter), 52 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. increased_full_year_outlook **Claim:** SBA is increasing its full year outlook for all key metrics, including site leasing revenue, cash flow, adjusted EBITDA, AFFO and AFFO per share, given the solid start to the year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Given the solid start of the year, we are increasing our full year outlook for all key metrics, including site leasing revenue, our cash flow, adjusted EBITDA, AFFO and AFFO per share as compared to our initial 2026 guidance." **Numbers:** 2026 ### 2. tower_cash_flow_margins **Claim:** SBA continued to operate efficiently in the first quarter, controlling direct costs and achieving company-wide tower cash flow margins of approximately 80%. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the first quarter, we continue to operate efficiently, controlling direct costs and achieving company-wide tower cash flow margins of approximately 80%." **Numbers:** 80% ### 3. us_leasing_activity **Claim:** In the U.S., SBA added approximately $10 million of quarterly new lease and amendment billings year-over-year, with the bulk of the activity coming from new colocations as carriers both densify and expanded network footprint. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the U.S. we added approximately $10 million of quarterly new lease and amendment billings year-over-year. The bulk of the activity continues to come from new colocations as carrier both densify and expanded network footprint." **Numbers:** $10 million ### 4. international_churn_peak **Claim:** SBA believes 2026 will be the peak year for international churn and expect improvement in our churn rate over the next several years. **Evidence (transcript):** "We believe 2026 will be the peak year for international churn and expect improvement in our churn rate over the next several years." **Numbers:** 2026 ### 5. investment_grade_issuer **Claim:** SBA continues to be committed to becoming an investment-grade issuer and anticipate making our inaugural investment-grade bond issuance at some point in 2026, dependent market conditions. **Evidence (transcript):** "We also continue to be committed to becoming an investment-grade issuer and anticipate making our inaugural investment-grade bond issuance at some point in 2026, dependent market conditions." **Numbers:** 2026 ### 6. dividend_increase **Claim:** SBA's Board of Directors declared its first quarter dividend of $1.25 per share, payable on June 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 22, 2026. This dividend represents an increase of approximately 13% over the dividend paid in the first quarter of 2025. **Evidence (transcript):** "And today, we announced that our Board of Directors declared our first quarter dividend of $1.25 per share, payable on June 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 22, 2026. This dividend represents an increase of approximately 13% over the dividend paid in the first quarter of 2025" **Numbers:** $1.25, 17, 2026, 22, 2026, 13%, 2025 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*