--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/sjm last_updated: 2026-05-09T16:32:13.283Z --- # The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-09 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T16:32:12.708Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $99.25 (▼ -0.19%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $10.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $88.25 – $119.39 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 9 Jun | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.66 (+15% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $2.3B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | C+ (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $119 (+19.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 47/100 | derived | | Council | 1/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## The J. M. Smucker Company — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $2.3B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.66^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** C+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 1/6 · **Moonshot:** 47 = MoonshotScore 47^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 1/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Fy27 Eps Growth With a stabilizing commodity environment and an off-tariff environment, as we continue to generate cash and pay down debt and we deliver a level of business momentum, there could be a path to that. > "But the essence that we are trying to communicate is that with a stabilizing commodity environment and an off-tariff environment, as we continue to generate cash and pay down debt and we deliver a level of business momentum, there could be a path to that, and that's what we were trying to just lay out as you think about a $9 midpoint at this fiscal year." > — Tucker Marshall, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Tariff Impact Fy27 Stepping into FY 2027, the $0.50 impact related to green coffee tariffs should be viewed as a tailwind, while in FY 2026, it continues to be a headwind. > "Andrew, good morning. The predominance of the $0.50, if not all, is related to green coffee tariffs. And so, therefore, stepping into FY 2027, it should be viewed as a tailwind while in FY 2026, it continues to be a headwind." > — Tucker Marshall, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Pet Portfolio Growth We are anticipating low single-digit growth for our pet portfolio in the third and fourth quarters behind the momentum of Milk Bone and Meow Mix. > "Rob, in support of your question, we are anticipating low single-digit growth for our pet portfolio in the third and fourth quarters behind the momentum of Milk Bone and Meow Mix." > — Tucker Marshall, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Sweet Baked Snacks Improvement We are pleased with the progress in Sweet Baked Snacks and the Hostess brand, noting improved performance in c-store and improving volume shares. > "First, we are very pleased with the progress that we're making on Sweet Baked Snacks and the Hostess brand. As you noted, we are seeing sequential improvement. Notably, we're seeing improved performance in c-store. Our volume shares are improving." > — Mark Smucker, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Uncrustables Billion Dollar Brand I can tell you that it still demonstrates growth and it is demonstrating a path or trajectory to being a billion-dollar brand by the end of this fiscal year. > "Much of that is driven by the spreads portfolio, and we really haven't taken up the outlook on the Uncrustables brand. I can tell you that it still demonstrates growth and it is demonstrating a path or trajectory to being a billion-dollar brand by the end of this fiscal year." > — Tucker Marshall, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 5.0 | medium | Q3 vs Q4: healthy growth (+9.1%) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q3: average margin (35.8%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (20.2%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.5B, 6.8× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 58.2 positive momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (50%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +19.4% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 58 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +19.4% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +19.4% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 58.2 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $99 — hisse %0.2 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $104 — hisse %4.8 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -6% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q4 FY25 | $2.31 | $2.24 | BEAT | +1.5% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.90 | $1.93 | MISS | +1.0% | | Q2 FY26 | $2.10 | $2.10 | MISS | +2.8% | | Q3 FY26 | $2.38 | $2.27 | +4.8% EPS | -0.0% | Q2 (November 25, 2025): EPS $2.38 vs $2.27 est^[FMP], +4.8% beat. D+1 movement: -0.0%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.66 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.66^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $119^{[FMP target]}; high target $134^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.66 + CapEx < $71.5M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.66^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $71.5M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $99^[FMP] and median $119^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.58 or CapEx ≥ $71.5M** Threshold: EPS < $2.58^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $99 below SMA200 $104^[FMP], if rejection continues, $89^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $2.38 vs $2.27 beat^[FMP], stock -0.0% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q3 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $71.5M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 20.2%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $119 (+19.4% upside vs current $99) - **High / Low:** $134 / $100 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 10 / 10 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 7 (last quarter), 42 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. sweet_baked_snacks_improvement **Claim:** We are pleased with the progress in Sweet Baked Snacks and the Hostess brand, noting improved performance in c-store and improving volume shares. **Evidence (transcript):** "First, we are very pleased with the progress that we're making on Sweet Baked Snacks and the Hostess brand. As you noted, we are seeing sequential improvement. Notably, we're seeing improved performance in c-store. Our volume shares are improving." **Numbers:** 25% ### 2. tariff_impact_fy27 **Claim:** Stepping into FY 2027, the $0.50 impact related to green coffee tariffs should be viewed as a tailwind, while in FY 2026, it continues to be a headwind. **Evidence (transcript):** "Andrew, good morning. The predominance of the $0.50, if not all, is related to green coffee tariffs. And so, therefore, stepping into FY 2027, it should be viewed as a tailwind while in FY 2026, it continues to be a headwind." **Numbers:** $0.50, 2027, 2026 ### 3. pet_portfolio_growth **Claim:** We are anticipating low single-digit growth for our pet portfolio in the third and fourth quarters behind the momentum of Milk Bone and Meow Mix. **Evidence (transcript):** "Rob, in support of your question, we are anticipating low single-digit growth for our pet portfolio in the third and fourth quarters behind the momentum of Milk Bone and Meow Mix." **Numbers:** — ### 4. uncrustables_billion_dollar_brand **Claim:** I can tell you that it still demonstrates growth and it is demonstrating a path or trajectory to being a billion-dollar brand by the end of this fiscal year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Much of that is driven by the spreads portfolio, and we really haven't taken up the outlook on the Uncrustables brand. I can tell you that it still demonstrates growth and it is demonstrating a path or trajectory to being a billion-dollar brand by the end of this fiscal year." **Numbers:** — ### 5. fy27_eps_growth **Claim:** With a stabilizing commodity environment and an off-tariff environment, as we continue to generate cash and pay down debt and we deliver a level of business momentum, there could be a path to that. **Evidence (transcript):** "But the essence that we are trying to communicate is that with a stabilizing commodity environment and an off-tariff environment, as we continue to generate cash and pay down debt and we deliver a level of business momentum, there could be a path to that, and that's what we were trying to just lay out as you think about a $9 midpoint at this fiscal year." **Numbers:** $9 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*