Simon Property Group, Inc.
SPG - NYSE - $202.31 ▲ +%0.40
-
Earnings Mon 11 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-11 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Simon opens the
books on Monday evening.

0 analysts' median target is $192[FMP target], stock is $202, -5.1% upside potential. After Q4 +392.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.9%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
SELL Council 2/6 - Moonshot 69

B+ = MoonshotScore 69[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $1.5B[FMP est], EPS $1.49[FMP est]. 6 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.49 EPS Estimate Last year $9.35 - -49% YoY YoY
6 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 6 quarters

Q4 EPS +392.1% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.9% D+1[FMP D+1]. Brian McDade promised $232.9M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Brian McDade capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$13 Expectation / Guide

2026 FFO Guidance

2026_FFO_guidance

SPG expects real estate FFO of $13 to $13.25 per share for 2026, assuming domestic property NOI growth of at least 3%.

"We expect real estate FFOs of $13 to $13.25 per share with a midpoint of $13.13. The guidance range assumes domestic property NOI growth of at least 3% and higher net interest expense of 25 to 30¢ per share versus 2025."

- Brian McDade, Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 2, 2026
20 Investor Focus

Occupancy Growth

occupancy_growth

The addition of the TRG assets reduced occupancy for malls and premium outlets, but SPG aims to drive higher occupancy at these assets.

"The addition of the TRD assets reduced occupancy by 20 basis points for malls and premium outlets and 30 basis points for the mills. We expect to drive higher occupancy at these assets as we on our leasing strategy."

- Brian McDade, Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 2, 2026
4.7% Investor Focus

Rent Growth

rent_growth

Average base minimum rents increased 4.7% year over year for the malls and the premium outlets, with the TRG properties contributing approximately 250 basis points to this growth.

"Average base minimum rents increased 4.7% year over year the malls and the premium outlets. The TRG properties contributed approximately 250 basis points to this growth."

- Brian McDade, Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 2, 2026
$3.5 Investor Focus

Shareholder Returns

shareholder_returns

SPG returned approximately $3.5 billion in cash to its shareholders in 2025 and has now paid approximately $48 billion in cash to shareholders in dividends over its history as a public company.

"We returned approximately $3.5 billion in cash to our shareholders through common stock repurchases and record cash dividends. In our yearly tally, we have now paid approximately $48 billion in cash to shareholders in dividends over our history as a public company."

- David Simon, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 2, 2026
$4 Investor Focus

Development Pipeline

development_pipeline

SPG's pipeline of new development and redevelopment opportunities continues to grow and now exceeds $4 billion.

"Our pipeline of new development and redevelopment opportunities continues to grow and now exceeds $4 billion."

- Eli Simon, Chief Operating Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 2, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 69 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. R&D Intensity weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+21.6%)
Gross Margin9.0Q4: very high margin (91.4%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage5.0op margin very strong (49.7%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.0B, 4.2x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 56.3 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment4.0mixed (43% buy)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 2 bearish (Klarman, Munger), 2 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -5.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 56
Klarman value - target upside -5.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside -5.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
56.3 RSI 56.3 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+3.50 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$195 stock 3.5% above - short-term support
200d MA
$185 stock 9.4% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-15% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$192
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$202
Pre-earnings position
Support
$157
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$157-$192 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Simon's last 8 quarters: 6 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q1 FY25
$2.95 vs $2.91 est - -6.2%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$3.05 vs $3.04 est - +3.3%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$3.22 vs $3.09 est - +3.4%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$9.35 vs $1.90 est - -0.9%

Q4 (February 2, 2026): EPS $9.35 vs $1.90 est[FMP], +392.1% beat. D+1 movement: -0.9%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.45 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $9.35 vs $1.90 beat[FMP], stock -0.9% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $232.9M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 49.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.49 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.49[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $192[FMP target]; high target $230[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.49 + CapEx < $232.9M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.49[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $232.9M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $202[FMP] and median $192[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.45 or CapEx >= $232.9M
Threshold: EPS < $1.45[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $202 below SMA200 $185[FMP], if rejection continues, $157[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 0 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$192
12-month median target price (-5.1% upside potential)
9
BUY
12
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$157
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$195 - 50-day MA (above, +3.5%)
$185 - 200-day MA (above, +9.4%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - SPG Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Monday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Monday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.49[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $232.9M"[Brian McDade]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 11, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 12, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 25, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 11, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the SPG earnings preview cover?

This SPG (SPG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in SPG earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.