--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/spg last_updated: 2026-05-05T20:34:43.000Z --- # Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-11 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T20:34:42.674Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $202.31 (▲ 0.40%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $65.7B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $155.44 – $208.28 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Mon 11 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.49 (-49% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $1.5B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 6/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $192 (-5.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 69/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Simon Property Group, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $1.5B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.49^{[FMP est]}. 6 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 69 = MoonshotScore 69^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. 2026 FFO Guidance SPG expects real estate FFO of $13 to $13.25 per share for 2026, assuming domestic property NOI growth of at least 3%. > "We expect real estate FFOs of $13 to $13.25 per share with a midpoint of $13.13. The guidance range assumes domestic property NOI growth of at least 3% and higher net interest expense of 25 to 30¢ per share versus 2025." > — Brian McDade, Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. Occupancy Growth The addition of the TRG assets reduced occupancy for malls and premium outlets, but SPG aims to drive higher occupancy at these assets. > "The addition of the TRD assets reduced occupancy by 20 basis points for malls and premium outlets and 30 basis points for the mills. We expect to drive higher occupancy at these assets as we on our leasing strategy." > — Brian McDade, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Rent Growth Average base minimum rents increased 4.7% year over year for the malls and the premium outlets, with the TRG properties contributing approximately 250 basis points to this growth. > "Average base minimum rents increased 4.7% year over year the malls and the premium outlets. The TRG properties contributed approximately 250 basis points to this growth." > — Brian McDade, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. Shareholder Returns SPG returned approximately $3.5 billion in cash to its shareholders in 2025 and has now paid approximately $48 billion in cash to shareholders in dividends over its history as a public company. > "We returned approximately $3.5 billion in cash to our shareholders through common stock repurchases and record cash dividends. In our yearly tally, we have now paid approximately $48 billion in cash to shareholders in dividends over our history as a public company." > — David Simon, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 5. Development Pipeline SPG's pipeline of new development and redevelopment opportunities continues to grow and now exceeds $4 billion. > "Our pipeline of new development and redevelopment opportunities continues to grow and now exceeds $4 billion." > — Eli Simon, Chief Operating Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+21.6%) | | Gross Margin | 9.0 | strong | Q4: very high margin (91.4%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 5.0 | medium | op margin very strong (49.7%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.0B, 4.2× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 56.3 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 4.0 | medium | mixed (43% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -5.1% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 56 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -5.1% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -5.1% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 56.3 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $195 — hisse %3.5 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $185 — hisse %9.4 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -15% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $2.95 | $2.91 | BEAT | -6.2% | | Q2 FY25 | $3.05 | $3.04 | BEAT | +3.3% | | Q3 FY25 | $3.22 | $3.09 | BEAT | +3.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $9.35 | $1.90 | +392.1% EPS | -0.9% | Q4 (February 2, 2026): EPS $9.35 vs $1.90 est^[FMP], +392.1% beat. D+1 movement: -0.9%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.49 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.49^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $192^{[FMP target]}; high target $230^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.49 + CapEx < $232.9M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.49^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $232.9M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $202^[FMP] and median $192^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.45 or CapEx ≥ $232.9M** Threshold: EPS < $1.45^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $202 below SMA200 $185^[FMP], if rejection continues, $157^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $9.35 vs $1.90 beat^[FMP], stock -0.9% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $232.9M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin 49.7%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $192 (-5.1% upside vs current $202) - **High / Low:** $230 / $181 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 9 / 12 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 0 (last quarter), 40 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. occupancy_growth **Claim:** The addition of the TRG assets reduced occupancy for malls and premium outlets, but SPG aims to drive higher occupancy at these assets. **Evidence (transcript):** "The addition of the TRD assets reduced occupancy by 20 basis points for malls and premium outlets and 30 basis points for the mills. We expect to drive higher occupancy at these assets as we on our leasing strategy." **Numbers:** 20, 30 ### 2. rent_growth **Claim:** Average base minimum rents increased 4.7% year over year for the malls and the premium outlets, with the TRG properties contributing approximately 250 basis points to this growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "Average base minimum rents increased 4.7% year over year the malls and the premium outlets. The TRG properties contributed approximately 250 basis points to this growth." **Numbers:** 4.7%, 250 ### 3. shareholder_returns **Claim:** SPG returned approximately $3.5 billion in cash to its shareholders in 2025 and has now paid approximately $48 billion in cash to shareholders in dividends over its history as a public company. **Evidence (transcript):** "We returned approximately $3.5 billion in cash to our shareholders through common stock repurchases and record cash dividends. In our yearly tally, we have now paid approximately $48 billion in cash to shareholders in dividends over our history as a public company." **Numbers:** $3.5, $48 ### 4. development_pipeline **Claim:** SPG's pipeline of new development and redevelopment opportunities continues to grow and now exceeds $4 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our pipeline of new development and redevelopment opportunities continues to grow and now exceeds $4 billion." **Numbers:** $4 ### 5. tariff_impact **Claim:** Tariffs are putting more pressure on retailers, which could negatively impact smaller businesses. **Evidence (transcript):** "So it is definitely putting more pressure on them. And it's not the big guys. I think I mentioned to you this on our last call. I mean, it's really it's really it's you put Costco and Walmart and, of course, Amazon aside. And then you have the rest of us. Okay? And the rest of us are feeling the pinch." **Numbers:** — ### 6. 2026_FFO_guidance **Claim:** SPG expects real estate FFO of $13 to $13.25 per share for 2026, assuming domestic property NOI growth of at least 3%. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect real estate FFOs of $13 to $13.25 per share with a midpoint of $13.13. The guidance range assumes domestic property NOI growth of at least 3% and higher net interest expense of 25 to 30¢ per share versus 2025." **Numbers:** $13, $13.25, $13.13, 3%, 25, 30 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*