--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/spgi last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:31:07.278Z --- # S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:31:06.038Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $426.06 (▼ -1.20%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $126.1B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $381.61 – $579.05 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 30 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $4.93 (+11% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $4.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $550 (+29.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 64/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## S&P Global Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $4.1B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $4.93^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 64 = MoonshotScore 64^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Energy Revenue Growth Revised S&P Global has lowered its organic constant currency revenue growth expectation for the Energy division to a range of 4.5% to 6% due to the conflict in Iran. > "Given the external environment, particularly the impact of the Iran conflict and the energy disruption on both the demand and supply side, we currently expect to deliver organic constant currency revenue growth in the range of 4.5% to 6%, 1 percentage point lower than the previous guidance." > — Eric Aboaf, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Margin Expansion Guidance S&P Global is reiterating its guidance for 50 to 75 basis points of margin expansion in 2026 excluding the impact of OSTTRA. > "We're also reiterating our guidance for 50 to 75 basis points of margin expansion in 2026 excluding the impact of OSTTRA." > — Eric Aboaf, Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Organic Constant Currency Revenue Growth S&P Global reiterated its guidance for organic constant currency revenue growth in the range of 6% to 8% for 2026. > "At the consolidated level, we are reiterating our guidance for organic constant currency revenue growth in the range of 6% to 8%." > — Eric Aboaf, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Share Repurchase Increase S&P Global plans to increase its share repurchases from an expected 85% of adjusted free cash flow to at least 100%, or roughly $4.5 billion for the year. > "Given the strength and resilience of our business and our confidence in its long-term profitable growth, we believe the current share price reflects an attractive opportunity to increase our repurchases from the expected 85% of adjusted free cash flow to at least 100% or to roughly $4.5 billion for the year." > — Eric Aboaf, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 6.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+11.1%) | | Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (70.4%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 5.0 | medium | op margin very strong (48.0%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.0B, 37.4× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 44.2 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 10.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (96%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +29.1% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 44 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +29.1% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +29.1% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 44.2 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $430 — hisse %1.0 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $490 — hisse %13.0 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -37% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $4.43 | $4.21 | BEAT | -1.0% | | Q3 FY25 | $4.73 | $4.42 | BEAT | -0.9% | | Q4 FY25 | $4.30 | $4.33 | MISS | -2.6% | | Q1 FY26 | $4.97 | $4.84 | +2.7% EPS | -0.1% | Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $4.97 vs $4.84 est^[FMP], +2.7% beat. D+1 movement: -0.1%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $4.93 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $4.93^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $550^{[FMP target]}; high target $627^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $4.93 + CapEx < $27.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $4.93^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $27.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $426^[FMP] and median $550^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $4.78 or CapEx ≥ $27.0M** Threshold: EPS < $4.78^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $426 below SMA200 $490^[FMP], if rejection continues, $416^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $4.97 vs $4.84 beat^[FMP], stock -0.1% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $27.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 48.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $550 (+29.1% upside vs current $426) - **High / Low:** $627 / $482 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 23 / 1 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 9 (last quarter), 58 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. organic_constant_currency_revenue_growth **Claim:** S&P Global reiterated its guidance for organic constant currency revenue growth in the range of 6% to 8% for 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "At the consolidated level, we are reiterating our guidance for organic constant currency revenue growth in the range of 6% to 8%." **Numbers:** 6%, 8% ### 2. margin_expansion_guidance **Claim:** S&P Global is reiterating its guidance for 50 to 75 basis points of margin expansion in 2026 excluding the impact of OSTTRA. **Evidence (transcript):** "We're also reiterating our guidance for 50 to 75 basis points of margin expansion in 2026 excluding the impact of OSTTRA." **Numbers:** 50, 75, 2026 ### 3. share_repurchase_increase **Claim:** S&P Global plans to increase its share repurchases from an expected 85% of adjusted free cash flow to at least 100%, or roughly $4.5 billion for the year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Given the strength and resilience of our business and our confidence in its long-term profitable growth, we believe the current share price reflects an attractive opportunity to increase our repurchases from the expected 85% of adjusted free cash flow to at least 100% or to roughly $4.5 billion for the year." **Numbers:** 85%, 100%, $4.5 billion ### 4. energy_revenue_growth_revised **Claim:** S&P Global has lowered its organic constant currency revenue growth expectation for the Energy division to a range of 4.5% to 6% due to the conflict in Iran. **Evidence (transcript):** "Given the external environment, particularly the impact of the Iran conflict and the energy disruption on both the demand and supply side, we currently expect to deliver organic constant currency revenue growth in the range of 4.5% to 6%, 1 percentage point lower than the previous guidance." **Numbers:** 4.5%, 6%, 1 ### 5. ratings_revenue_growth_moderation **Claim:** S&P Global expects Ratings revenue growth to moderate in the third quarter before turning negative in the fourth quarter as it laps prior year highs. **Evidence (transcript):** "We continue to expect Ratings growth to moderate in the third quarter before turning negative in the fourth quarter as we lap prior year highs." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*