--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/sre last_updated: 2026-05-05T20:41:33.822Z --- # Sempra (SRE) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T20:41:33.499Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $94.37 (▼ -0.01%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $61.7B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $73.06 – $101.04 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 7 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.48 (+3% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $4.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 5/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | C+ (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $105 (+11.3% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 33/100 | derived | | Council | 1/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Sempra — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $4.1B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.48^{[FMP est]}. 5 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** C+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 1/6 · **Moonshot:** 33 = MoonshotScore 33^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 1/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. 2030 Eps Outlook Sempra is affirming its full year 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30, introducing its full year 2027 EPS guidance range of $5.10 to $5.70, and issuing a 2030 EPS outlook of $6.70 to $7.50. > "Today, Sempra is affirming our full year 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30, introducing our full year 2027 EPS guidance range of $5.10 to $5.70, and issuing a 2030 EPS outlook of $6.70 to $7.50. With today's update, we believe we have one of the highest projected growth rates in the sector, and our 2030 outlook shows that our strong long-term growth expectations continue through the end of the decade." > — Karen L. Sedgwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. Sempra Texas Rate Base Growth Sempra Texas rate base is projected to grow at a remarkable 18% CAGR over the plan period. > "Sempra Texas rate base is projected to grow at a remarkable 18% CAGR over the plan period" > — Karen L. Sedgwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Oncor Transmission Capex Nearly 70% of Oncor's planned CapEx is dedicated towards transmission. > "Consequently, nearly 70% of Oncor's planned CapEx is dedicated towards transmission." > — Karen L. Sedgwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Risk Indicator · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. Sempra Infrastructure Sale The sale of a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners for $10 billion implies over a $22 billion equity value, and the transaction is expected to close in 2026. > "In September, we announced the sale of a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners for $10 billion, implying over a $22 billion equity value. We are pleased to recognize the significant value created on behalf of our shareholders at an attractive multiple, and we continue to expect to close that transaction in 2026, subject to closing conditions." > — Jeffrey Walker Martin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 5. 2026 2030 Capital Plan Sempra announced a record capital plan of $65 billion for the 2026 to 2030 period, with 95% targeted for utility investments. > "We are excited to announce our 2026 to 2030 capital plan totaling $65 billion, an increase of $9 billion over last year's plan. In support of our mission, 95% of Sempra's overall capital program is targeted for utility investments." > — Karen L. Sedgwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q4 vs Q1: growth negative (-0.8%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q4: average margin (34.4%) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (29.3%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-2.2B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 48.9 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (74%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +11.3% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 49 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +11.3% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 2/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +11.3% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 48.9 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $95 — hisse %0.7 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $90 — hisse %5.4 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -30% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $1.44 | $1.32 | BEAT | -0.5% | | Q2 FY25 | $0.89 | $0.85 | BEAT | -1.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.11 | $0.91 | BEAT | +0.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.28 | $1.24 | +3.2% EPS | +1.1% | Q4 (February 26, 2026): EPS $1.28 vs $1.24 est^[FMP], +3.2% beat. D+1 movement: +1.1%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.48 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.48^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $105^{[FMP target]}; high target $118^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.48 + CapEx < $3.4B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.48^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $3.4B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $94^[FMP] and median $105^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.44 or CapEx ≥ $3.4B** Threshold: EPS < $1.44^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $94 below SMA200 $90^[FMP], if rejection continues, $76^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $1.28 vs $1.24 beat^[FMP], stock +1.1% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $3.4B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin 29.3%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $105 (+11.3% upside vs current $94) - **High / Low:** $118 / $100 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 14 / 5 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 5 (last quarter), 52 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. 2026-2030_capital_plan **Claim:** Sempra announced a record capital plan of $65 billion for the 2026 to 2030 period, with 95% targeted for utility investments. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are excited to announce our 2026 to 2030 capital plan totaling $65 billion, an increase of $9 billion over last year's plan. In support of our mission, 95% of Sempra's overall capital program is targeted for utility investments." **Numbers:** $65 billion, 2026, 2030, 95% ### 2. oncor_transmission_capex **Claim:** Nearly 70% of Oncor's planned CapEx is dedicated towards transmission. **Evidence (transcript):** "Consequently, nearly 70% of Oncor's planned CapEx is dedicated towards transmission." **Numbers:** 70% ### 3. oncor_ai_data_center_growth **Claim:** Oncor’s service territory has some of the highest concentration of AI-related and data center growth, which represents additional potential investment opportunities. **Evidence (transcript):** "Keep in mind, too, that Oncor’s service territory has some of the highest concentration of AI-related and data center growth, which represents additional potential investment opportunities." **Numbers:** — ### 4. 2030_eps_outlook **Claim:** Sempra is affirming its full year 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30, introducing its full year 2027 EPS guidance range of $5.10 to $5.70, and issuing a 2030 EPS outlook of $6.70 to $7.50. **Evidence (transcript):** "Today, Sempra is affirming our full year 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30, introducing our full year 2027 EPS guidance range of $5.10 to $5.70, and issuing a 2030 EPS outlook of $6.70 to $7.50. With today's update, we believe we have one of the highest projected growth rates in the sector, and our 2030 outlook shows that our strong long-term growth expectations continue through the end of the decade." **Numbers:** 2026, $4.80, $5.30, 2027, $5.10, $5.70, 2030, $6.70, $7.50 ### 5. sempra_infrastructure_sale **Claim:** The sale of a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners for $10 billion implies over a $22 billion equity value, and the transaction is expected to close in 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "In September, we announced the sale of a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners for $10 billion, implying over a $22 billion equity value. We are pleased to recognize the significant value created on behalf of our shareholders at an attractive multiple, and we continue to expect to close that transaction in 2026, subject to closing conditions." **Numbers:** 45%, $10 billion, $22 billion, 2026 ### 6. sempra_texas_rate_base_growth **Claim:** Sempra Texas rate base is projected to grow at a remarkable 18% CAGR over the plan period. **Evidence (transcript):** "Sempra Texas rate base is projected to grow at a remarkable 18% CAGR over the plan period" **Numbers:** 18% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*