--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/stld last_updated: 2026-05-09T11:23:07.885Z --- # Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T11:23:07.266Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $235.10 (▲ 0.94%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $33.9B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $119.89 – $243.73 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Mon 20 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $4.00 (+99% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $5.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $190 (-19.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 41/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Steel Dynamics, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $5.6B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $4.00^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 41 = MoonshotScore 41^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Steel Operations Income Steel operations generated operating income of $557 million in the first quarter, a 73% sequential increase. > "Our steel operations generated operating income of $557 million in the first quarter, a 73% sequential increase as average selling prices per ton increased $86." > — Theresa E. Wagler, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Metals Recycling Income Metals recycling operations achieved first quarter operating income of $47 million, or 155% higher than sequential earnings. > "From a metals recycling perspective, first quarter 2026 operating income was $47 million, or 155% higher than sequential earnings, based on higher pricing for both ferrous and nonferrous scrap." > — Theresa E. Wagler, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Aluminum Operations Loss Aluminum operations reported an operating loss of $65 million in the first quarter. > "As for the related first quarter financial impact, earnings for aluminum were lower than we originally expected, with an operating loss of $65 million." > — Theresa E. Wagler, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Record Steel Shipments The company achieved record quarterly steel shipments of 3.6 million tons in the first quarter. > "Several highlights for the quarter included record quarterly steel shipments of 3.6 million tons." > — Mark D. Millett, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Aluminum Capacity Exit Rate The company continues to believe it will be exiting 2026 at a monthly rate of 90% capacity. > "We continue to believe we will be exiting 2026 at a monthly rate of 90% capacity." > — Mark D. Millett, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 7.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+14.0%) | | Gross Margin | 1.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (14.7%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (11.3%) | | Cash Runway | 4.0 | medium | FCF under pressure ($0.0B FCF vs $0.1B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 69.8 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (64%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -19.2% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 70 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -19.2% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -19.2% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 69.8 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $196 — hisse %20.0 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $166 — hisse %41.5 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -10% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.01 | $2.24 | MISS | -1.7% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.74 | $2.63 | BEAT | +5.2% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.82 | $1.70 | BEAT | +1.3% | | Q1 FY26 | $2.78 | $2.84 | +-2.1% EPS | -1.1% | Q1 (April 21, 2026): EPS $2.78 vs $2.84 est^[FMP], +-2.1% beat. D+1 movement: -1.1%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $4.00 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $4.00^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $190^{[FMP target]}; high target $207^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $4.00 + CapEx < $138.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $4.00^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $138.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $235^[FMP] and median $190^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $3.88 or CapEx ≥ $138.0M** Threshold: EPS < $3.88^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $235 below SMA200 $166^[FMP], if rejection continues, $141^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $2.84 beat^[FMP], stock -1.1% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $138.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 11.3%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $190 (-19.2% upside vs current $235) - **High / Low:** $207 / $190 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 7 / 3 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 2 (last quarter), 26 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. record_steel_shipments **Claim:** The company achieved record quarterly steel shipments of 3.6 million tons in the first quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "Several highlights for the quarter included record quarterly steel shipments of 3.6 million tons." **Numbers:** 3.6 ### 2. aluminum_operations_loss **Claim:** Aluminum operations reported an operating loss of $65 million in the first quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "As for the related first quarter financial impact, earnings for aluminum were lower than we originally expected, with an operating loss of $65 million." **Numbers:** $65 ### 3. steel_operations_income **Claim:** Steel operations generated operating income of $557 million in the first quarter, a 73% sequential increase. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our steel operations generated operating income of $557 million in the first quarter, a 73% sequential increase as average selling prices per ton increased $86." **Numbers:** $557, 73%, $86 ### 4. metals_recycling_income **Claim:** Metals recycling operations achieved first quarter operating income of $47 million, or 155% higher than sequential earnings. **Evidence (transcript):** "From a metals recycling perspective, first quarter 2026 operating income was $47 million, or 155% higher than sequential earnings, based on higher pricing for both ferrous and nonferrous scrap." **Numbers:** $47, 155% ### 5. fabrication_business_outlook **Claim:** The company has high expectations for its steel fabrication business due to positive customer sentiment in construction, continued manufacturing onshoring, and public funding. **Evidence (transcript):** "We continue to have high expectations for the business this year due to positive customer sentiment, quoting activity, continued manufacturing onshoring, and public funding for infrastructure and other fixed asset investment programs." **Numbers:** — ### 6. aluminum_capacity_exit_rate **Claim:** The company continues to believe it will be exiting 2026 at a monthly rate of 90% capacity. **Evidence (transcript):** "We continue to believe we will be exiting 2026 at a monthly rate of 90% capacity." **Numbers:** 90% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*