--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/stx last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:23:20.423Z --- # Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:23:19.169Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $726.93 (▲ 7.91%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $163.0B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $91.92 – $728.00 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 4 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $5.04 (+95% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $3.5B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $565 (-22.3% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 64/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Seagate Technology Holdings plc — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $3.5B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $5.04^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 64 = MoonshotScore 64^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. March Quarter Guidance Seagate expects March quarter revenue to be in the range of $2.9 billion, driven by a strong demand environment. > "We expect March quarter revenue to be in the range of $2.9 billion, plus or minus $100 million, which represent a 34% year-over-year improvement as a midpoint." > — Gianluca Romano, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Gross Margin Expansion Seagate's non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 42.2%, driven by the execution of pricing strategy and growing adoption of high capacity products. > "Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 42.2% in the December quarter up from 40.1% in the prior period." > — Gianluca Romano, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Nearline Capacity Allocation Seagate's nearline capacity is fully allocated through calendar year 2026, and they expect to begin accepting orders for the first half of calendar year 2027. > "Our nearline capacity is fully allocated through calendar year 2026, and we expect to begin accepting orders for the first half of calendar year 2027 in the coming months." > — William Mosley, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Datacenter Demand The data center market accounted for 87% of shipment volume, with both cloud and enterprise customers transitioning to higher capacity drives. > "The data center market accounted for 87% of our shipment volume, supported by ongoing demand momentum from global cloud customers and sequential growth across the enterprise OEM markets." > — Gianluca Romano, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Record Breaking Quarter Seagate closed out a record-breaking quarter, driven by sequential revenue growth across nearly all end markets. > "Seagate closed out calendar 2025, with a record-breaking quarter, driven by sequential revenue growth across nearly all end markets." > — William Mosley, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 6. Hamr Shipments Seagate's quarterly HAMR shipments exceeded 1.5 million units and have continued to ramp. > "And by year's end, quarterly HAMR shipments exceeded 1.5 million units and have continued to ramp." > — William Mosley, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q3 vs Q4: fast growth (+27.3%) | | Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q3: average margin (46.5%) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin very strong (32.1%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.0B, 5.9× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 5.0 | medium | average R&D (6.8%) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 84.0 overbought, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (83%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -22.3% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 84 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -22.3% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -22.3% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 84.0 — overbought (RSI 84.0) — geri çekilme baskısı - **50d MA:** $460 — hisse %58.0 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $306 — hisse %137.6 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +50% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q4 FY25 | $2.59 | $2.45 | BEAT | -3.4% | | Q1 FY26 | $2.61 | $2.40 | BEAT | +19.1% | | Q2 FY26 | $3.11 | $2.78 | BEAT | +19.1% | | Q3 FY26 | $4.10 | $3.51 | +16.8% EPS | +11.1% | Q2 (January 27, 2026): EPS $4.10 vs $3.51 est^[FMP], +16.8% beat. D+1 movement: +11.1%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $5.04 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $5.04^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $565^{[FMP target]}; high target $1000^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $5.04 + CapEx < $161.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $5.04^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $161.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $727^[FMP] and median $565^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $4.89 or CapEx ≥ $161.0M** Threshold: EPS < $4.89^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $727 below SMA200 $306^[FMP], if rejection continues, $260^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $4.10 vs $3.51 beat^[FMP], stock +11.1% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q3 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $161.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Gianluca Romano Q2 transcript: "We invested $116 million in capital expenditures for the December quarter or roughly 4% of revenue."^{[Gianluca Romano transcript]}. Q2 op margin 32.1%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $565 (-22.3% upside vs current $727) - **High / Low:** $1000 / $380 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 20 / 4 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 12 (last quarter), 110 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. record_breaking_quarter **Claim:** Seagate closed out a record-breaking quarter, driven by sequential revenue growth across nearly all end markets. **Evidence (transcript):** "Seagate closed out calendar 2025, with a record-breaking quarter, driven by sequential revenue growth across nearly all end markets." **Numbers:** 2025 ### 2. hamr_shipments **Claim:** Seagate's quarterly HAMR shipments exceeded 1.5 million units and have continued to ramp. **Evidence (transcript):** "And by year's end, quarterly HAMR shipments exceeded 1.5 million units and have continued to ramp." **Numbers:** 1.5 ### 3. nearline_capacity_allocation **Claim:** Seagate's nearline capacity is fully allocated through calendar year 2026, and they expect to begin accepting orders for the first half of calendar year 2027. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our nearline capacity is fully allocated through calendar year 2026, and we expect to begin accepting orders for the first half of calendar year 2027 in the coming months." **Numbers:** 2026, 2027 ### 4. datacenter_demand **Claim:** The data center market accounted for 87% of shipment volume, with both cloud and enterprise customers transitioning to higher capacity drives. **Evidence (transcript):** "The data center market accounted for 87% of our shipment volume, supported by ongoing demand momentum from global cloud customers and sequential growth across the enterprise OEM markets." **Numbers:** 87% ### 5. gross_margin_expansion **Claim:** Seagate's non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 42.2%, driven by the execution of pricing strategy and growing adoption of high capacity products. **Evidence (transcript):** "Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 42.2% in the December quarter up from 40.1% in the prior period." **Numbers:** 42.2%, 40.1% ### 6. march_quarter_guidance **Claim:** Seagate expects March quarter revenue to be in the range of $2.9 billion, driven by a strong demand environment. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect March quarter revenue to be in the range of $2.9 billion, plus or minus $100 million, which represent a 34% year-over-year improvement as a midpoint." **Numbers:** $2.9, $100, 34% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*