--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/syf last_updated: 2026-05-09T12:47:03.672Z --- # Synchrony Financial (SYF) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T12:47:03.225Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $73.14 (▼ -1.16%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $24.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $55.67 – $88.77 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 21 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.10 (-16% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $3.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 5/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $93 (+27.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 56/100 | derived | | Council | 5/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Synchrony Financial — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $3.7B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.10^{[FMP est]}. 5 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/6 · **Moonshot:** 56 = MoonshotScore 56^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 5/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Eps Guidance Synchrony remains on track to deliver between $9.10 and $9.50 in diluted earnings per share for 2026, with consistent risk-adjusted growth and strong capital generation. > "Putting all these elements together, Synchrony remains on track to deliver between $9.10 and $9.50 in diluted earnings per share, while also executing across key strategic priorities to deliver consistent risk-adjusted growth and strong capital generation." > — Brian Wenzel, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Purchase Volume Growth Synchrony achieved a record first quarter purchase volume of $43 billion, a 6% increase. > "Synchrony started the year with strong momentum and delivered first quarter financial results that included record first quarter purchase volume of $43 billion, reflecting the enduring appeal of Synchrony's multiproduct suite." > — Brian Doubles, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Rsa Guidance Synchrony expects RSAs to increase as program performance strengthens, but remain within its long-term range of 4% to 4.5% of average receivables. > "As program performance strengthens due to higher net interest income and lower losses compared to last year, we continue to expect RSAs to increase but remain within our long-term range of 4% to 4.5% of average receivables." > — Brian Wenzel, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Loan Receivables Growth Synchrony achieved a positive inflection in ending loan receivables with an increase of approximately $477 million at the end of the first quarter. > "Ending loan receivables were flat at $100 billion, though we did achieve a positive inflection in ending loan receivables with an increase of approximately $477 million at the end of the first quarter." > — Brian Wenzel, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Net Charge Off Guidance Synchrony expects net charge-offs to be less than 5.5% for the full year 2026. > "We expect our net charge-offs to be less than 5.5% for the full year, and we remain focused on our disciplined approach to underwriting our business." > — Brian Wenzel, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Payment Rate Increase Synchrony's payment rate increased approximately 50 basis points compared to last year. > "Meanwhile, payment rate increased approximately 50 basis points compared to last year." > — Brian Doubles, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 9.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+18.9%) | | Gross Margin | 8.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (82.7%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (16.3%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF very strong ($2.2B, 2183000000.0× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 46.7 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | majority buy (65%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +27.2% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 47 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +27.2% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +27.2% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 46.7 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $71 — hisse %3.3 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $74 — hisse %1.5 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** +11% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.50 | $1.82 | BEAT | +2.0% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.86 | $2.26 | BEAT | -2.9% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.07 | $2.05 | BEAT | +0.6% | | Q1 FY26 | $2.27 | $2.22 | +2.3% EPS | +1.4% | Q1 (April 21, 2026): EPS $2.27 vs $2.22 est^[FMP], +2.3% beat. D+1 movement: +1.4%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.10 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.10^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $93^{[FMP target]}; high target $100^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.10 + CapEx < $0** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.10^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $0^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $73^[FMP] and median $93^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.04 or CapEx ≥ $0** Threshold: EPS < $2.04^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $73 below SMA200 $74^[FMP], if rejection continues, $63^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $2.27 vs $2.22 beat^[FMP], stock +1.4% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $0^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 16.3%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $93 (+27.2% upside vs current $73) - **High / Low:** $100 / $82 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 15 / 8 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 3 (last quarter), 59 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. purchase_volume_growth **Claim:** Synchrony achieved a record first quarter purchase volume of $43 billion, a 6% increase. **Evidence (transcript):** "Synchrony started the year with strong momentum and delivered first quarter financial results that included record first quarter purchase volume of $43 billion, reflecting the enduring appeal of Synchrony's multiproduct suite." **Numbers:** $43 billion, 6% ### 2. loan_receivables_growth **Claim:** Synchrony achieved a positive inflection in ending loan receivables with an increase of approximately $477 million at the end of the first quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "Ending loan receivables were flat at $100 billion, though we did achieve a positive inflection in ending loan receivables with an increase of approximately $477 million at the end of the first quarter." **Numbers:** $100 billion, $477 million ### 3. payment_rate_increase **Claim:** Synchrony's payment rate increased approximately 50 basis points compared to last year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Meanwhile, payment rate increased approximately 50 basis points compared to last year." **Numbers:** 50 ### 4. net_charge_off_guidance **Claim:** Synchrony expects net charge-offs to be less than 5.5% for the full year 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect our net charge-offs to be less than 5.5% for the full year, and we remain focused on our disciplined approach to underwriting our business." **Numbers:** 5.5% ### 5. rsa_guidance **Claim:** Synchrony expects RSAs to increase as program performance strengthens, but remain within its long-term range of 4% to 4.5% of average receivables. **Evidence (transcript):** "As program performance strengthens due to higher net interest income and lower losses compared to last year, we continue to expect RSAs to increase but remain within our long-term range of 4% to 4.5% of average receivables." **Numbers:** 4%, 4.5% ### 6. eps_guidance **Claim:** Synchrony remains on track to deliver between $9.10 and $9.50 in diluted earnings per share for 2026, with consistent risk-adjusted growth and strong capital generation. **Evidence (transcript):** "Putting all these elements together, Synchrony remains on track to deliver between $9.10 and $9.50 in diluted earnings per share, while also executing across key strategic priorities to deliver consistent risk-adjusted growth and strong capital generation." **Numbers:** $9.10, $9.50 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*