--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/tdg last_updated: 2026-05-09T17:17:38.323Z --- # TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T17:17:37.747Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $1215.08 (▼ -2.17%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $68.0B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $1123.61 – $1623.83 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 4 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $10.17 (+6% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $2.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 3/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B- (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $1558 (+28.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 61/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## TransDigm Group Incorporated — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $2.6B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $10.17^{[FMP est]}. 3 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 61 = MoonshotScore 61^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Fy26 Sales Ebitda Guidance Increase TDG raised its FY26 sales and EBITDA defined guidance to reflect its strong first quarter results, and its current expectations for the remainder of the year. > "As noted in our earnings release, we are increasing our full year '26 sales and EBITDA as defined guidance to reflect our strong first quarter results, and our current expectations for the remainder of the year." > — Michael Lisman, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Organic Growth Rate TDG's organic growth rate in the first quarter was 7.4%, and all market channels contributed to this growth. > "In the first quarter, our organic growth rate was 7.4% and all market channels contributed to this growth, as previously discussed by Mike and Patrick." > — Sarah Wynne, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Stellant Jet Parts Victor Sierra Acquisitions TDG has agreed to acquire Stellant Systems for approximately $960 million and Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra Aviation for approximately $2.2 billion. > "On December 31, we announced that we had agreed to acquire Stellant Systems from Arlington Capital Partners for approximately $960 million in cash. And then on January 16, we announced that we had agreed to acquire two businesses, Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra Aviation, from Vance Street Capital for approximately $2.2 billion in cash." > — Michael Lisman, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Commercial Oem Growth TDG saw a 17% increase in commercial OEM revenue, with growth driven by increased production rates at Airbus and Boeing. > "Our total commercial OEM revenue increased approximately 17% in Q1, compared with the prior year period. As we anticipated, commercial OEM revenue in the first quarter showed strong growth as we supported higher build rates." > — Patrick Murphy, Co-COO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Commercial Aftermarket Growth TDG's commercial aftermarket revenue increased by 7%, with all submarkets experiencing positive growth. > "Total commercial aftermarket revenue increased by approximately 7% compared with the prior year period. This quarter, all submarkets within commercial aftermarket experienced positive growth." > — Patrick Murphy, Co-COO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Defense Market Growth TDG's defense market revenue grew by 7%, with growth seen in both OEM and aftermarket components. > "Defense market revenue which includes both OEM and aftermarket revenues, grew by approximately 7% compared to the prior year period." > — Patrick Murphy, Co-COO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 7.0 | strong | Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+13.7%) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q2: high margin (59.4%) | | Operating Leverage | 5.0 | medium | op margin very strong (46.3%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 8.0 | strong | FCF positive but absorbed ($0.1B vs $0.1B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 52.6 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | majority buy (70%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +28.2% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 53 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +28.2% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +28.2% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 52.6 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $1213 — hisse %0.2 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $1314 — hisse %7.6 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -25% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 FY25 | $9.60 | $9.89 | MISS | -1.1% | | Q4 FY25 | $10.82 | $10.04 | BEAT | +1.3% | | Q1 FY26 | $8.23 | $8.10 | BEAT | -2.9% | | Q2 FY26 | $9.85 | $9.46 | +4.1% EPS | +3.5% | Q1 (February 3, 2026): EPS $9.85 vs $9.46 est^[FMP], +4.1% beat. D+1 movement: +3.5%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $10.17 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $10.17^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $1558^{[FMP target]}; high target $1871^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $10.17 + CapEx < $71.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $10.17^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $71.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $1215^[FMP] and median $1558^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $9.86 or CapEx ≥ $71.0M** Threshold: EPS < $9.86^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $1215 below SMA200 $1314^[FMP], if rejection continues, $1117^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $9.85 vs $9.46 beat^[FMP], stock +3.5% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $71.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 46.3%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $1558 (+28.2% upside vs current $1215) - **High / Low:** $1871 / $1350 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 16 / 7 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 4 (last quarter), 43 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. fy26_sales_ebitda_guidance_increase **Claim:** TDG raised its FY26 sales and EBITDA defined guidance to reflect its strong first quarter results, and its current expectations for the remainder of the year. **Evidence (transcript):** "As noted in our earnings release, we are increasing our full year '26 sales and EBITDA as defined guidance to reflect our strong first quarter results, and our current expectations for the remainder of the year." **Numbers:** '26 ### 2. commercial_oem_growth **Claim:** TDG saw a 17% increase in commercial OEM revenue, with growth driven by increased production rates at Airbus and Boeing. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our total commercial OEM revenue increased approximately 17% in Q1, compared with the prior year period. As we anticipated, commercial OEM revenue in the first quarter showed strong growth as we supported higher build rates." **Numbers:** 17% ### 3. commercial_aftermarket_growth **Claim:** TDG's commercial aftermarket revenue increased by 7%, with all submarkets experiencing positive growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "Total commercial aftermarket revenue increased by approximately 7% compared with the prior year period. This quarter, all submarkets within commercial aftermarket experienced positive growth." **Numbers:** 7% ### 4. defense_market_growth **Claim:** TDG's defense market revenue grew by 7%, with growth seen in both OEM and aftermarket components. **Evidence (transcript):** "Defense market revenue which includes both OEM and aftermarket revenues, grew by approximately 7% compared to the prior year period." **Numbers:** 7% ### 5. stellant_jet_parts_victor_sierra_acquisitions **Claim:** TDG has agreed to acquire Stellant Systems for approximately $960 million and Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra Aviation for approximately $2.2 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "On December 31, we announced that we had agreed to acquire Stellant Systems from Arlington Capital Partners for approximately $960 million in cash. And then on January 16, we announced that we had agreed to acquire two businesses, Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra Aviation, from Vance Street Capital for approximately $2.2 billion in cash." **Numbers:** 31, $960 million, 16, $2.2 billion ### 6. capital_allocation_priorities **Claim:** TDG's capital allocation priorities are unchanged: reinvest in businesses, do accretive, disciplined M&A, and return capital to shareholders via buybacks or dividends. **Evidence (transcript):** "The capital allocation priorities at TransDigm are unchanged. Our first priority is to reinvest in our businesses. Second, do accretive, disciplined M&A. And third, return capital to our shareholders via buybacks or dividends." **Numbers:** — ### 7. organic_growth_rate **Claim:** TDG's organic growth rate in the first quarter was 7.4%, and all market channels contributed to this growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the first quarter, our organic growth rate was 7.4% and all market channels contributed to this growth, as previously discussed by Mike and Patrick." **Numbers:** 7.4% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*