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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/tel
last_updated: 2026-05-09T17:24:37.790Z
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# TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview
> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T17:24:37.358Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.
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## Quick Summary
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $206.20 (▼ -1.84%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $60.2B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $154.86 – $252.56 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Wed 22 Jul | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $2.81 (+24% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $5.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $261 (+26.6% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 46/100 | derived |
| Council | 4/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived |
## TE Connectivity Ltd. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations
Q4 consensus: revenue $5.0B[FMP est], EPS $2.81[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
## Quick Take
**Score:** A- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 46
= MoonshotScore 46[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
## Watchlist (6 metrics)
### 1. Ai Revenue Increase
TE Connectivity now expects its AI revenues in fiscal 2026 to be about $150 million higher than its view 90 days ago.
> "We now expect our AI revenues in fiscal 2026 to be about $150 million higher than our view 90 days ago, and this entire increase will be in the second half of the year and reflects the increased momentum that I talked about in orders."
> — Terrence Curtin, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026
### 2. Digital Data Networks Growth
TE Connectivity's digital data networks business grew nearly 50% year-over-year and is building backlog into 2027.
> "In our digital data networks, we had another standing quarter where our business grew nearly 50% year-over-year and sales were as we expected. We continue to win new programs with customers and the orders that we have received are building backlog into 2027."
> — Terrence Curtin, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026
### 3. Industrial Segment Growth
Over 70% of TE Connectivity's order growth was in the Industrial segment, with Industrial segment orders growing 40% versus the prior year.
> "For the second quarter, over 70% of the company's order growth was in Industrial segment. Versus the prior year, Industrial segment orders grew 40% and essentially every business in the segment posted double-digit orders growth."
> — Terrence Curtin, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026
### 4. Q3 Sales Guidance
TE Connectivity expects third quarter sales to be $5 billion, which reflect an increase of 10% versus the prior year.
> "As we look to the third quarter, we are expecting third quarter sales to be $5 billion, which reflect an increase of 10% versus the prior year with year-over-year and sequential growth in both of our segments."
> — Terrence Curtin, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026
### 5. Fy26 Sales Growth
TE Connectivity delivered $1.4 billion of growth last year and expects to deliver well over $2 billion of growth this year, with the majority of its businesses growing double digits year-over-year.
> "Last year, we delivered $1.4 billion of growth as a company. And this year, we expect to deliver well over $2 billion of growth, with the majority of our businesses growing double digits year-over-year."
> — Terrence Curtin, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026
### 6. Record Orders
TE Connectivity reports record orders of over $5 billion in the second quarter, which is growth of over $1 billion versus the prior year.
> "In the second quarter, we had record orders of over $5 billion, which was growth of over $1 billion versus the prior year, with growth across both segments and in every business."
> — Terrence Curtin, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026
## MoonshotScore Pillars
| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 2.0 | weak | Q2 vs Q3: moderate growth (+4.6%) |
| Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q2: average margin (36.8%) |
| Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (20.1%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.7B, 2.5× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | average R&D (4.9%) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 42.8 weak momentum, 50d below |
| News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | majority buy (68%) |
**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.
## Council (7-Lens)
| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +26.6% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 43 |
| Klarman | bull | value · target upside +26.6% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +26.6% |
**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.
## Munger Lens
- **Verdict:** Undervalued
- **Financial Health:** Strong
- **Margin of Safety:** Strong
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy
**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.
## Technical Levels
- **RSI(14):** 42.8 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az
- **50d MA:** $213 — hisse %3.2 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200d MA:** $221 — hisse %6.7 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** +10%
## Past Performance (4 Quarters)
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY25 | $2.27 | $2.08 | BEAT | +1.8% |
| Q4 FY25 | $2.44 | $2.29 | BEAT | +1.1% |
| Q1 FY26 | $2.72 | $2.55 | BEAT | +0.2% |
| Q2 FY26 | $2.73 | $2.69 | +1.5% EPS | -1.5% |
Q2 (April 22, 2026): EPS $2.73 vs $2.69 est[FMP], +1.5% beat. D+1 movement: -1.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
## 3 Scenarios
### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $2.81 + CapEx discipline**
Threshold: EPS > $2.81[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $261[FMP target]; high target $302[FMP] upper bound.
### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $2.81 + CapEx < $270.0M**
Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.81[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $270.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $206[FMP] and median $261[FMP].
### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $2.73 or CapEx ≥ $270.0M**
Threshold: EPS < $2.73[FMP est×0.97].
Target: Current $206 below SMA200 $221[FMP], if rejection continues, $188[derived] support activates.
## Risk Notes
### Primary segment below threshold
Q2: EPS $2.73 vs $2.69 beat[FMP], stock -1.5% D+1[FMP].
### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26
### CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $270.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 20.1%[FMP op margin] — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
## Wall Street Consensus
- **Median target:** $261 (+26.6% upside vs current $206)
- **High / Low:** $302 / $226
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 13 / 6 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 7 (last quarter), 47 all-time
## Additional Transcript Insights
### 1. fy26_growth_outlook
**Claim:** TE Connectivity states that its strategy and business model are driving a broadening of growth across its portfolio while delivering sustained margin expansion and double-digit earnings growth.
**Evidence (transcript):** "The strategy we laid out, we believe, will drive ongoing value creation for our owners. And it's based on the backbone is how we capitalize on the proliferation of data and power by providing leading interconnect products and technologies across our target markets to meet the evolving next-generation architectures of our customers."
**Numbers:** —
### 2. fy26_sales_growth
**Claim:** TE Connectivity delivered $1.4 billion of growth last year and expects to deliver well over $2 billion of growth this year, with the majority of its businesses growing double digits year-over-year.
**Evidence (transcript):** "Last year, we delivered $1.4 billion of growth as a company. And this year, we expect to deliver well over $2 billion of growth, with the majority of our businesses growing double digits year-over-year."
**Numbers:** $1.4 billion, $2 billion
### 3. record_orders
**Claim:** TE Connectivity reports record orders of over $5 billion in the second quarter, which is growth of over $1 billion versus the prior year.
**Evidence (transcript):** "In the second quarter, we had record orders of over $5 billion, which was growth of over $1 billion versus the prior year, with growth across both segments and in every business."
**Numbers:** $5 billion, $1 billion
### 4. industrial_segment_growth
**Claim:** Over 70% of TE Connectivity's order growth was in the Industrial segment, with Industrial segment orders growing 40% versus the prior year.
**Evidence (transcript):** "For the second quarter, over 70% of the company's order growth was in Industrial segment. Versus the prior year, Industrial segment orders grew 40% and essentially every business in the segment posted double-digit orders growth."
**Numbers:** 70%, 40%
### 5. digital_data_networks_growth
**Claim:** TE Connectivity's digital data networks business grew nearly 50% year-over-year and is building backlog into 2027.
**Evidence (transcript):** "In our digital data networks, we had another standing quarter where our business grew nearly 50% year-over-year and sales were as we expected. We continue to win new programs with customers and the orders that we have received are building backlog into 2027."
**Numbers:** 50%, 2027
### 6. ai_revenue_increase
**Claim:** TE Connectivity now expects its AI revenues in fiscal 2026 to be about $150 million higher than its view 90 days ago.
**Evidence (transcript):** "We now expect our AI revenues in fiscal 2026 to be about $150 million higher than our view 90 days ago, and this entire increase will be in the second half of the year and reflects the increased momentum that I talked about in orders."
**Numbers:** $150 million, 2026, 90
### 7. q3_sales_guidance
**Claim:** TE Connectivity expects third quarter sales to be $5 billion, which reflect an increase of 10% versus the prior year.
**Evidence (transcript):** "As we look to the third quarter, we are expecting third quarter sales to be $5 billion, which reflect an increase of 10% versus the prior year with year-over-year and sequential growth in both of our segments."
**Numbers:** $5 billion, 10%
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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*