--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/tjx last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:10:51.206Z --- # The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-20 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:10:50.069Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $156.83 (▲ 0.05%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $174.2B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $119.84 – $165.82 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 20 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.00 (+9% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $14.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $170 (+8.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 57/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## The TJX Companies, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $14.0B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.00^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 57 = MoonshotScore 57^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Profit Margin Increase TJX reported a second-quarter pre-tax profit margin of 11.4%, up 50 basis points versus last year and well above plan. > "Second quarter pre-tax profit margin of 11.4% was up 50 basis points versus last year and well above our plan." > — John Klinger, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Comp Sales Growth TJX reported a better-than-expected consolidated comp sales increase of 4% in the second quarter, with customer transactions up at every division. > "Overall, comp sales for the second quarter exceeded our expectations, increasing 4% and were strong across all of our divisions. Customer transactions were up at every division and drove our overall comp sales increase." > — Ernie Herrman, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Tjx International Growth TJX International reported a very strong comp sales increase of 5%, with strong sales in Europe and outstanding sales in Australia. > "At TJX International, comp sales increased a very strong 5%. Once again, we're very pleased to see sales strength in Europe and outstanding sales in Australia." > — John Klinger, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Merchandise Availability TJX reported that balance sheet inventory was up 14%, and inventory on a per-store basis was up 10% versus last year, as they've been buying into the excellent opportunities for quality, branded merchandise they've been seeing in the marketplace. > "Balance sheet inventory was up 14%, and inventory on a per-store basis was up 10% versus last year, as we've been buying into the excellent opportunities for quality, branded merchandise we've been seeing in the marketplace." > — John Klinger, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Marmaxx Performance Marmaxx saw strong comp sales growth of 3%, driven by a combination of a higher average basket and an increase in customer transactions, with strength in store performance across all income demographics. > "At Marmaxx, comp sales grew a strong 3%. A combination of a higher average basket and an increase in customer transactions drove the comp increase. It was great to see strength in our store performance across all income demographics, which speaks to our broad-based appeal of our values." > — John Klinger, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+35.3%) | | Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q4: average margin (30.9%) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (13.3%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($2.6B, 5.6× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 45.8 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (90%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +8.4% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 46 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +8.4% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +8.4% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 45.8 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $158 — hisse %1.0 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $148 — hisse %5.9 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +15% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY26 | $0.92 | $0.92 | BEAT | -1.1% | | Q2 FY26 | $1.10 | $1.01 | BEAT | -0.5% | | Q3 FY26 | $1.28 | $1.23 | BEAT | +1.5% | | Q4 FY26 | $1.43 | $1.39 | +2.9% EPS | +1.8% | Q2 (August 20, 2025): EPS $1.43 vs $1.39 est^[FMP], +2.9% beat. D+1 movement: +1.8%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.00 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.00^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $170^{[FMP target]}; high target $193^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.00 + CapEx < $468.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.00^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $468.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $157^[FMP] and median $170^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $0.97 or CapEx ≥ $468.0M** Threshold: EPS < $0.97^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $157 below SMA200 $148^[FMP], if rejection continues, $126^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $1.43 vs $1.39 beat^[FMP], stock +1.8% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $468.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 13.3%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $170 (+8.4% upside vs current $157) - **High / Low:** $193 / $150 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 18 / 1 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 1 (last quarter), 68 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. comp_sales_growth **Claim:** TJX reported a better-than-expected consolidated comp sales increase of 4% in the second quarter, with customer transactions up at every division. **Evidence (transcript):** "Overall, comp sales for the second quarter exceeded our expectations, increasing 4% and were strong across all of our divisions. Customer transactions were up at every division and drove our overall comp sales increase." **Numbers:** 4% ### 2. profit_margin_increase **Claim:** TJX reported a second-quarter pre-tax profit margin of 11.4%, up 50 basis points versus last year and well above plan. **Evidence (transcript):** "Second quarter pre-tax profit margin of 11.4% was up 50 basis points versus last year and well above our plan." **Numbers:** 11.4%, 50 ### 3. full_year_guidance_increase **Claim:** TJX is raising its full-year guidance for both pre-tax profit margin and earnings per share due to strong second-quarter results and above-plan sales. **Evidence (transcript):** "With our profit results in the second quarter also well exceeding our plan, we are raising our full-year guidance for both pre-tax profit margin and earnings per share." **Numbers:** — ### 4. merchandise_availability **Claim:** TJX reported that balance sheet inventory was up 14%, and inventory on a per-store basis was up 10% versus last year, as they've been buying into the excellent opportunities for quality, branded merchandise they've been seeing in the marketplace. **Evidence (transcript):** "Balance sheet inventory was up 14%, and inventory on a per-store basis was up 10% versus last year, as we've been buying into the excellent opportunities for quality, branded merchandise we've been seeing in the marketplace." **Numbers:** 14%, 10% ### 5. marmaxx_performance **Claim:** Marmaxx saw strong comp sales growth of 3%, driven by a combination of a higher average basket and an increase in customer transactions, with strength in store performance across all income demographics. **Evidence (transcript):** "At Marmaxx, comp sales grew a strong 3%. A combination of a higher average basket and an increase in customer transactions drove the comp increase. It was great to see strength in our store performance across all income demographics, which speaks to our broad-based appeal of our values." **Numbers:** 3% ### 6. tjx_international_growth **Claim:** TJX International reported a very strong comp sales increase of 5%, with strong sales in Europe and outstanding sales in Australia. **Evidence (transcript):** "At TJX International, comp sales increased a very strong 5%. Once again, we're very pleased to see sales strength in Europe and outstanding sales in Australia." **Numbers:** 5% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*