--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/tko last_updated: 2026-05-09T15:08:45.795Z --- # TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T15:08:45.147Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $186.79 (▼ -0.38%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $14.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $152.29 – $226.94 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 5 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.56 (+33% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $1.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B- (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $233 (+24.5% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 60/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## TKO Group Holdings, Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $1.6B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.56^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 60 = MoonshotScore 60^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Full Year Guidance Reaffirmation TKO reaffirmed its full year 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion and $2.24 billion to $2.29 billion, respectively. > "As noted in our press release, based on our performance through the first 3 months of the year and our anticipated performance for the remainder of the year, we are reaffirming our expectations. For full year 2026, we continue to target revenue of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.24 billion to $2.29 billion." > — Andrew Schleimer, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Zuffa Boxing Growth Zuffa Boxing is exceeding its internal growth plan and timeline, having signed more than 100 fighters, staged five events with solid viewership on Paramount+, and secured a multiyear deal with Sky Sports for the U.K. and Ireland. > "Finally, turning to Zuffa Boxing, where our progress is exceeding our internal growth plan and time line. We've already signed more than 100 fighters. We've staged five events with solid viewership on Paramount+, and we've secured a multiyear deal with Sky Sports for the U.K. and Ireland, two of the most pivotal and important boxing markets in the world." > — Mark Shapiro, President and COO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Wwe Q2 Revenue And Ebitda Peak WWE expects the second quarter of 2026 to be its highest revenue and adjusted EBITDA quarter due to event timing and a premium live event in Saudi Arabia. > "At WWE, given the timing and mix of our event calendar, including WrestleMania as well as a premium live event in Saudi Arabia, we expect the second quarter to be by far the highest revenue and adjusted EBITDA quarter of the year in terms of absolute dollars." > — Andrew Schleimer, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Ufc Freedom 250 Loss UFC anticipates losing approximately $30 million on UFC Freedom 250 due to an expanded Fight Card and festivalization at the White House. > "I mentioned on our last call that we anticipated losing $30 million on UFC Freedom 250, and that's still the case despite meaningfully increased costs associated with an expanded Fight Card and the 2-day festivalization of this event on the Ellipse, which is adjacent to the White House." > — Mark Shapiro, President and COO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Share Repurchase Authorization Reflecting its conviction in TKO and its long-term value, TKO announced an incremental $1 billion share repurchase authorization, complementing the existing program. > "Reflecting our conviction in TKO and its long-term value, we've announced an incremental $1 billion share repurchase authorization, complementing the existing program, which we expect will be largely complete in the near term." > — Ariel Emanuel, Executive Chair and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Img Formula 1 Apple Partnership IMG is powering Apple's debut season as the U.S. broadcaster of Formula 1, integrating every feed to their platform and producing content from our Stockley Park headquarters in the U.K. > "At IMG, we are powering Apple's debut season as the U.S. broadcaster of Formula 1, integrating every feed to their platform and producing content from our Stockley Park headquarters in the U.K." > — Mark Shapiro, President and COO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+22.0%) | | Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (45.0%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (22.8%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.7B, 33.8× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 44.3 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (77%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +24.5% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 44 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +24.5% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +24.5% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 44.3 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $196 — hisse %4.6 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $195 — hisse %4.2 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** +37% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.17 | $1.16 | BEAT | +3.3% | | Q3 FY25 | $0.50 | $0.59 | MISS | -3.3% | | Q4 FY25 | $-0.08 | $0.24 | MISS | +8.0% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.12 | $1.11 | +0.9% EPS | -1.6% | Q1 (May 6, 2026): EPS $1.12 vs $1.11 est^[FMP], +0.9% beat. D+1 movement: -1.6%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $1.56 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.56^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $233^{[FMP target]}; high target $251^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.56 + CapEx < $20.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.56^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $20.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $187^[FMP] and median $233^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.51 or CapEx ≥ $20.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.51^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $187 below SMA200 $195^[FMP], if rejection continues, $166^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.12 vs $1.11 beat^[FMP], stock -1.6% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $20.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 22.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $233 (+24.5% upside vs current $187) - **High / Low:** $251 / $225 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 17 / 5 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 6 (last quarter), 40 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. full_year_guidance_reaffirmation **Claim:** TKO reaffirmed its full year 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion and $2.24 billion to $2.29 billion, respectively. **Evidence (transcript):** "As noted in our press release, based on our performance through the first 3 months of the year and our anticipated performance for the remainder of the year, we are reaffirming our expectations. For full year 2026, we continue to target revenue of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.24 billion to $2.29 billion." **Numbers:** 5.675, 5.775, 2.24, 2.29, 2026 ### 2. wwe_q2_revenue_and_ebitda_peak **Claim:** WWE expects the second quarter of 2026 to be its highest revenue and adjusted EBITDA quarter due to event timing and a premium live event in Saudi Arabia. **Evidence (transcript):** "At WWE, given the timing and mix of our event calendar, including WrestleMania as well as a premium live event in Saudi Arabia, we expect the second quarter to be by far the highest revenue and adjusted EBITDA quarter of the year in terms of absolute dollars." **Numbers:** 2026 ### 3. ufc_freedom_250_loss **Claim:** UFC anticipates losing approximately $30 million on UFC Freedom 250 due to an expanded Fight Card and festivalization at the White House. **Evidence (transcript):** "I mentioned on our last call that we anticipated losing $30 million on UFC Freedom 250, and that's still the case despite meaningfully increased costs associated with an expanded Fight Card and the 2-day festivalization of this event on the Ellipse, which is adjacent to the White House." **Numbers:** 30, 250 ### 4. share_repurchase_authorization **Claim:** Reflecting its conviction in TKO and its long-term value, TKO announced an incremental $1 billion share repurchase authorization, complementing the existing program. **Evidence (transcript):** "Reflecting our conviction in TKO and its long-term value, we've announced an incremental $1 billion share repurchase authorization, complementing the existing program, which we expect will be largely complete in the near term." **Numbers:** 1 ### 5. img_formula_1_apple_partnership **Claim:** IMG is powering Apple's debut season as the U.S. broadcaster of Formula 1, integrating every feed to their platform and producing content from our Stockley Park headquarters in the U.K. **Evidence (transcript):** "At IMG, we are powering Apple's debut season as the U.S. broadcaster of Formula 1, integrating every feed to their platform and producing content from our Stockley Park headquarters in the U.K." **Numbers:** 1 ### 6. zuffa_boxing_growth **Claim:** Zuffa Boxing is exceeding its internal growth plan and timeline, having signed more than 100 fighters, staged five events with solid viewership on Paramount+, and secured a multiyear deal with Sky Sports for the U.K. and Ireland. **Evidence (transcript):** "Finally, turning to Zuffa Boxing, where our progress is exceeding our internal growth plan and time line. We've already signed more than 100 fighters. We've staged five events with solid viewership on Paramount+, and we've secured a multiyear deal with Sky Sports for the U.K. and Ireland, two of the most pivotal and important boxing markets in the world." **Numbers:** 100, five --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*