--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/tmus last_updated: 2026-05-09T17:15:57.325Z --- # T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T17:15:56.814Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $193.63 (▼ -0.29%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $209.5B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $181.36 – $261.56 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 22 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.57 (-10% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $23.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $255 (+31.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 56/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## T-Mobile US, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $23.0B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.57^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 56 = MoonshotScore 56^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Core Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Increase T-Mobile is also raising its full year core adjusted EBITDA guide, which is now expected to be between $37.1 billion and $37.5 billion, an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range. > "We are also raising our full year core adjusted EBITDA guide, which is now expected to be between $37.1 billion and $37.5 billion, an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range." > — Peter Osvaldik, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Adjusted Free Cash Flow Guidance Increase And we now expect adjusted free cash flow to be between $18.1 billion and $18.7 billion for the full year, also an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range. > "And we now expect adjusted free cash flow to be between $18.1 billion and $18.7 billion for the full year, also an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range." > — Peter Osvaldik, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Postpaid Net Account Additions Guidance Increase T-Mobile is raising its expectation for total postpaid net account additions to be between 950,000 and 1,050,000 on the strength of the underlying momentum in the business. > "We are raising our expectation for total postpaid net account additions to be between 950,000 and 1,050,000 on the strength of the underlying momentum in the business." > — Peter Osvaldik, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Service Revenue Guidance T-Mobile continues to expect to deliver full year service revenue of approximately $77 billion, representing 8% growth. > "We continue to expect to deliver full year service revenue of approximately $77 billion, representing 8% growth" > — Peter Osvaldik, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Cash Capex Unchanged Our expectation for full year 2026 cash CapEx remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion as we continue to invest to further differentiate the network. > "Our expectation for full year 2026 cash CapEx remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion as we continue to invest to further differentiate the network." > — Peter Osvaldik, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Stockholder Return Authorization Increase And finally, last week, we announced we are increasing our 2026 stockholder return authorization by up to $3.6 billion to a total authorization of up to $18.2 billion. > "And finally, last week, we announced we are increasing our 2026 stockholder return authorization by up to $3.6 billion to a total authorization of up to $18.2 billion." > — Peter Osvaldik, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 5.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+9.3%) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (61.8%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (19.5%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF strong ($4.6B FCF, covers CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.3%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 46.2 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (86%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +31.7% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 46 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +31.7% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +31.7% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 46.2 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $204 — hisse %4.9 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $216 — hisse %10.2 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -34% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.84 | $2.67 | BEAT | +5.8% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.59 | $2.40 | BEAT | -1.0% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.88 | $2.05 | MISS | +2.5% | | Q1 FY26 | $2.28 | $2.01 | +13.4% EPS | +6.1% | Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $2.28 vs $2.01 est^[FMP], +13.4% beat. D+1 movement: +6.1%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.57 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.57^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $255^{[FMP target]}; high target $310^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.57 + CapEx < $2.6B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.57^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $2.6B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $194^[FMP] and median $255^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.49 or CapEx ≥ $2.6B** Threshold: EPS < $2.49^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $194 below SMA200 $216^[FMP], if rejection continues, $183^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $2.28 vs $2.01 beat^[FMP], stock +6.1% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $2.6B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 19.5%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $255 (+31.7% upside vs current $194) - **High / Low:** $310 / $220 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 25 / 4 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 12 (last quarter), 84 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. postpaid_net_account_additions_guidance_increase **Claim:** T-Mobile is raising its expectation for total postpaid net account additions to be between 950,000 and 1,050,000 on the strength of the underlying momentum in the business. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are raising our expectation for total postpaid net account additions to be between 950,000 and 1,050,000 on the strength of the underlying momentum in the business." **Numbers:** 950,000, 1,050,000 ### 2. service_revenue_guidance **Claim:** T-Mobile continues to expect to deliver full year service revenue of approximately $77 billion, representing 8% growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "We continue to expect to deliver full year service revenue of approximately $77 billion, representing 8% growth" **Numbers:** $77 billion, 8% ### 3. core_adjusted_EBITDA_guidance_increase **Claim:** T-Mobile is also raising its full year core adjusted EBITDA guide, which is now expected to be between $37.1 billion and $37.5 billion, an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are also raising our full year core adjusted EBITDA guide, which is now expected to be between $37.1 billion and $37.5 billion, an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range." **Numbers:** $37.1 billion, $37.5 billion, $100 million ### 4. cash_capex_unchanged **Claim:** Our expectation for full year 2026 cash CapEx remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion as we continue to invest to further differentiate the network. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our expectation for full year 2026 cash CapEx remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion as we continue to invest to further differentiate the network." **Numbers:** $10 billion ### 5. adjusted_free_cash_flow_guidance_increase **Claim:** And we now expect adjusted free cash flow to be between $18.1 billion and $18.7 billion for the full year, also an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range. **Evidence (transcript):** "And we now expect adjusted free cash flow to be between $18.1 billion and $18.7 billion for the full year, also an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range." **Numbers:** $18.1 billion, $18.7 billion, $100 million ### 6. stockholder_return_authorization_increase **Claim:** And finally, last week, we announced we are increasing our 2026 stockholder return authorization by up to $3.6 billion to a total authorization of up to $18.2 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "And finally, last week, we announced we are increasing our 2026 stockholder return authorization by up to $3.6 billion to a total authorization of up to $18.2 billion." **Numbers:** $3.6 billion, $18.2 billion --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*