--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/tpl last_updated: 2026-05-09T12:09:20.064Z --- # Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T12:09:19.553Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $394.20 (▼ -1.22%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $27.2B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $269.23 – $547.20 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 5 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.39 (+42% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $264.0M | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $639 (+62.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 69/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Texas Pacific Land Corporation — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $264.0M^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.39^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 69 = MoonshotScore 69^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Royalty Production Oil and gas royalty production averaged approximately 37,001 barrels of oil equivalent per day, roughly flat sequentially and up roughly 19% year over year. > "Oil and gas royalty production averaged approximately 37,001 barrels of oil equivalent per day, roughly flat sequentially and up roughly 19% year over year." > — Tyler Glover, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Commodity Price Sensitivity Every $10 per barrel increase in oil realizations would equate to approximately $50 million. > "Using our royalty production volumes for fiscal year 2025 as an illustrative guide, roughly 5 million barrels of annual oil production means that every $10 per barrel increase in oil realizations would equate to approximately $50 million." > — Chris Steddum, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Record Revenue Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated record quarterly total revenue, net income, and free cash flow in Q1 2026. > "Texas Pacific Land Corporation's first quarter 2026 marked a strong start to the year as Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated record quarterly total revenue, net income, and free cash flow." > — Tyler Glover, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Water Segment Performance In our water segment, both water sales and produced water royalties are the second-best volume numbers in our history. > "In our water segment, both water sales and produced water royalties are the second-best volume numbers in our history." > — Tyler Glover, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Unhedged Commodity Position Texas Pacific Land Corporation is fully exposed to the direct upside from elevated oil prices with its unhedged commodity position. > "Today, with our unhedged commodity position, we are fully exposed to the direct upside from elevated oil prices." > — Tyler Glover, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+26.3%) | | Gross Margin | 8.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (82.1%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 8.0 | strong | op margin very strong (77.0%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.2B, 21.0× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 31.2 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (50%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +62.1% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 31 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +62.1% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +62.1% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 31.2 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $472 — hisse %16.4 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $360 — hisse %9.4 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -0% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.68 | $1.83 | MISS | -8.7% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.76 | $1.92 | MISS | +10.0% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.79 | $1.79 | MISS | +10.4% | | Q1 FY26 | $2.07 | $2.03 | +2.0% EPS | -4.9% | Q1 (May 7, 2026): EPS $2.07 vs $2.03 est^[FMP], +2.0% beat. D+1 movement: -4.9%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $2.39 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.39^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $639^[FMP]^{[FMP target]}; high target $639 upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.39 + CapEx < $7.3M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.39^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $7.3M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $394^[FMP] and median $639^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.32 or CapEx ≥ $7.3M** Threshold: EPS < $2.32^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $394 below SMA200 $360^[FMP], if rejection continues, $306^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $2.07 vs $2.03 beat^[FMP], stock -4.9% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $7.3M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 77.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $639 (+62.1% upside vs current $394) - **High / Low:** $639 / $639 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 1 / 0 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 1 (last quarter), 2 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. record_revenue **Claim:** Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated record quarterly total revenue, net income, and free cash flow in Q1 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "Texas Pacific Land Corporation's first quarter 2026 marked a strong start to the year as Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated record quarterly total revenue, net income, and free cash flow." **Numbers:** — ### 2. royalty_production **Claim:** Oil and gas royalty production averaged approximately 37,001 barrels of oil equivalent per day, roughly flat sequentially and up roughly 19% year over year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Oil and gas royalty production averaged approximately 37,001 barrels of oil equivalent per day, roughly flat sequentially and up roughly 19% year over year." **Numbers:** 37,001, 19% ### 3. water_segment_performance **Claim:** In our water segment, both water sales and produced water royalties are the second-best volume numbers in our history. **Evidence (transcript):** "In our water segment, both water sales and produced water royalties are the second-best volume numbers in our history." **Numbers:** — ### 4. unhedged_commodity_position **Claim:** Texas Pacific Land Corporation is fully exposed to the direct upside from elevated oil prices with its unhedged commodity position. **Evidence (transcript):** "Today, with our unhedged commodity position, we are fully exposed to the direct upside from elevated oil prices." **Numbers:** — ### 5. commodity_price_sensitivity **Claim:** Every $10 per barrel increase in oil realizations would equate to approximately $50 million. **Evidence (transcript):** "Using our royalty production volumes for fiscal year 2025 as an illustrative guide, roughly 5 million barrels of annual oil production means that every $10 per barrel increase in oil realizations would equate to approximately $50 million." **Numbers:** 10, 50 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*