--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/trgp last_updated: 2026-05-05T21:27:58.225Z --- # Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T21:27:57.932Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $259.72 (▲ 0.29%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $55.8B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $144.14 – $261.95 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 7 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.56 (+181% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $4.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 3/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $236 (-9.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Targa Resources Corp. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $4.7B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.56^{[FMP est]}. 3 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 44 = MoonshotScore 44^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Adjusted Ebitda Guidance Targa estimates full year adjusted EBITDA to be between $5.4 billion and $5.6 billion for 2026, an 11% increase over 2025 based on the midpoint of our range. > "We estimate full year adjusted EBITDA to be between $5.4 billion and $5.6 billion for 2026, an 11% increase over 2025 based on the midpoint of our range." > — William Byers, Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. Permian Volume Growth Targa Resources anticipates low double-digit Permian volume growth in 2026, consistent with previous commentary. > "We are almost 2 months into 2026, and our momentum continues as we estimate another year of low double-digit Permian volume growth. Our expectations for 2026 are consistent with our previous commentary and our outlook for '27 and beyond has only improved." > — Matt Meloy, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Growth Capital Spending Targa expects multiyear growth capital spending to average around $2.5 billion annually post Speedway in a high single-digit to low double-digit Targa Permian volume growth environment. > "In a high single-digit to low double-digit Targa Permian volume growth environment or about 3 plants per year, we would expect multiyear growth capital spending to average around $2.5 billion annually post Speedway." > — Matt Meloy, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. New Projects And Capacity Targa announced a new Delaware processing plant, Yeti II, and its 13th fractionator in Mont Belvieu, and ordered long lead items for 2 additional plants in the Permian planned for early 2028. > "So with this outlook for strong volume growth, we are announcing 2 new projects today, our next Delaware processing plant, Yeti II and our 13th fractionator in Mont Belvieu. We are also ordering long lead items for 2 additional plants in the Permian planned for early 2028." > — Matt Meloy, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q4 vs Q1: growth negative (-16.4%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q4: average margin (43.1%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (22.6%) | | Cash Runway | 6.0 | medium | FCF positive but absorbed ($0.5B vs $1.0B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 66.9 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (91%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -9.1% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 67 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -9.1% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -9.1% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 66.9 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $242 — hisse %7.3 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $192 — hisse %35.6 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -12% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $0.91 | $1.98 | MISS | -0.3% | | Q2 FY25 | $2.87 | $1.86 | BEAT | -1.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.20 | $2.11 | BEAT | +4.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.51 | $2.30 | +9.1% EPS | +3.2% | Q4 (February 19, 2026): EPS $2.51 vs $2.30 est^[FMP], +9.1% beat. D+1 movement: +3.2%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.56 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.56^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $236^{[FMP target]}; high target $268^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.56 + CapEx < $963.2M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.56^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $963.2M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $260^[FMP] and median $236^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.48 or CapEx ≥ $963.2M** Threshold: EPS < $2.48^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $260 below SMA200 $192^[FMP], if rejection continues, $163^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $2.51 vs $2.30 beat^[FMP], stock +3.2% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $963.2M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin 22.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $236 (-9.1% upside vs current $260) - **High / Low:** $268 / $207 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 20 / 2 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 8 (last quarter), 55 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. permian_volume_growth **Claim:** Targa Resources anticipates low double-digit Permian volume growth in 2026, consistent with previous commentary. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are almost 2 months into 2026, and our momentum continues as we estimate another year of low double-digit Permian volume growth. Our expectations for 2026 are consistent with our previous commentary and our outlook for '27 and beyond has only improved." **Numbers:** 2026, 27 ### 2. new_projects_and_capacity **Claim:** Targa announced a new Delaware processing plant, Yeti II, and its 13th fractionator in Mont Belvieu, and ordered long lead items for 2 additional plants in the Permian planned for early 2028. **Evidence (transcript):** "So with this outlook for strong volume growth, we are announcing 2 new projects today, our next Delaware processing plant, Yeti II and our 13th fractionator in Mont Belvieu. We are also ordering long lead items for 2 additional plants in the Permian planned for early 2028." **Numbers:** 2 ### 3. downstream_capital_spending **Claim:** Targa expects to have lower downstream capital spending for years to come, while EBITDA is expected to be meaningfully higher, which results in a strong free cash flow profile following the completion of Speedway and its LPG export expansion. **Evidence (transcript):** "Following the completion of these projects, we expect to have lower downstream capital spending for years to come, while our EBITDA is expected to be meaningfully higher, which results in a strong free cash flow profile." **Numbers:** — ### 4. growth_capital_spending **Claim:** Targa expects multiyear growth capital spending to average around $2.5 billion annually post Speedway in a high single-digit to low double-digit Targa Permian volume growth environment. **Evidence (transcript):** "In a high single-digit to low double-digit Targa Permian volume growth environment or about 3 plants per year, we would expect multiyear growth capital spending to average around $2.5 billion annually post Speedway." **Numbers:** 2.5 ### 5. adjusted_ebitda_guidance **Claim:** Targa estimates full year adjusted EBITDA to be between $5.4 billion and $5.6 billion for 2026, an 11% increase over 2025 based on the midpoint of our range. **Evidence (transcript):** "We estimate full year adjusted EBITDA to be between $5.4 billion and $5.6 billion for 2026, an 11% increase over 2025 based on the midpoint of our range." **Numbers:** 5.4, 5.6, 11, 2025 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*