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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/txn
last_updated: 2026-07-31T06:14:49.062Z
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# Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview
> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-07-31T06:14:47.345Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.
---
## Quick Summary
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $278.76 (▲ 2.75%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $254.6B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $152.73 – $334.03 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Tue 27 Oct | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $2.40 (+62% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $5.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B- (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $323 (+15.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 63/100 | derived |
| Council | 2/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |
## Texas Instruments Incorporated — Q1 FY2027 Expectations
Q1 consensus: revenue $5.9B[FMP est], EPS $2.40[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
## Quick Take
**Score:** B- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 63
= MoonshotScore 63[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
## Watchlist (5 metrics)
### 1. Q3 Guidance Market Strength
Texas Instruments expects above-seasonal Q3 growth driven by broad demand across industrial, data center, automotive, and personal electronics markets.
> "I think we -- right now, as we stand in July, we see a setup that -- of a stronger demand, and it's broader. It's not only in the last couple of quarters, it was really an industrial and data center play. Right now, we are seeing demand growing to the automotive market. I think my -- I'll talk about Q3. When you think about the above seasonal guide, I think the contribution will come from all markets. The 3 markets that we've -- that drove the 2Q growth, meaning industrial, data center and automotive. But Q3 is traditionally a quarter of personal electronics strength. So I expect strong demand across the board."
> — Haviv Ilan, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026
### 2. Data Center Tailwinds
The data center market is expected to continue strong demand, with future architectures like 800 volts providing a significant tailwind by increasing the total addressable market and conversion stages for Analog and Embedded parts.
> "Again, we do continue to see strong demand in the data center market, Atif, and I don't expect that to change in the foreseeable future. I think when you talk -- think about future architectures like 800 volts, it will be phased into the market. I think you can envision at the beginning, maybe an AC to DC, maybe AC to 800 volts and then an 800 to 48, 48 to 12, for example, right? That's how you bring in the technology. So to me, that just means higher growth of the TAM, more conversion stages and that helps our market on the Analog and Embedded side, if you think about the different Analog parts participating in every conversion stage and also the Embedded controllers and the signal chain part. So I think that is a tailwind to -- for our market."
> — Haviv Ilan, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026
### 3. Industrial Market Recovery
The industrial market, despite recent growth, remains 5-6 points below its 2022 peak, suggesting significant room for continued growth, further supported by tailwinds from data center infrastructure and test and measurement.
> "Let me start with the industrial market, and maybe I'll say a few words about pricing at the end. So look, the -- I think, Vivek, we have a lot of opportunity in front of us. We -- even with a nice growth in Q2, we are still -- I have to go back to 2022, and we are still lower than that peak, maybe 5 or 6 points lower than the 2022 peak. So if you think about a trend line of the industrial market, and I like to think about it as mid- to high single-digit growth on a market TAM opportunity. You -- and you're 4 years later, one can argue that we still have a lot of room to grow ahead of us. On top of it, I think the data center market is also providing tailwind into the industrial market. Think about sectors like the energy infrastructure and think about test and measurement. And they were our fastest-growing segments or sectors, as we call them in the second quarter or the first half of the year. So I think there is more tailwinds ahead. I do believe that customers are early and are not yet building inventory. So I think the setup is very positive."
> — Haviv Ilan, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026
### 4. Pricing Initiatives H2 2026
Texas Instruments has started executing price increases in the second half of the year, with some impact expected in Q3 and continuing into Q4 and next year, affecting both Analog and Embedded segments.
> "I will say that we have started executing price increases, yes. And because we go to the market direct, we have it -- the discussion. This is not a onetime discussion with our distribution channel. It's really a discussion customer by customer. So if you will, it will be -- it will be dependent on the customer. Some of it will start to play in, in Q3, but I expect that to continue into the fourth quarter. And also, some of our customers, we decide pricing once a year during our annual price discussions, and that happens only at the end of Q4. So that can continue also into the next year. Regarding the segments, meaning Analog and Embedded, look, where we see the most pressure, also within lead time escalations, I mentioned automotive. It's right now mainly on the Analog side. That's what we saw in the first part of the year. But I would say that Embedded is joining the trend. So if I can -- if I look at our opportunity for the second half of the year, I think we have an opportunity across all markets, but also across the 2 segments. I think the pricing discussions for Embedded will be more centered towards the next year."
> — Haviv Ilan, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026
### 5. Automotive Market Inflection
The automotive market is experiencing an inflection point with accelerated demand, particularly in EVs and hybrids, compounded by customers having very low inventory levels.
> "Now regarding automotive, I think we saw a combination of a couple of things. I think we did see an uptick in -- and by the way, it developed throughout the quarter. So when we came to the call in April, we didn't have the same visibility. It built up as we went through the quarter, led by China. And I think it's really led by EVs and hybrids. Cost of fuel drove that, I believe. In addition, I think our automotive customers have taken their inventory to very low levels. And now as there is a little bit more demand, they find themselves in a situation that is not sustainable. I think that also drove part of the demand. I think we are in the start of a cycle that is very, very broad."
> — Haviv Ilan, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026
## MoonshotScore Pillars
| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 8.0 | strong | Q2 vs Q3: fast growth (+15.2%) |
| Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q2: high margin (61.4%) |
| Operating Leverage | 4.0 | medium | op margin very strong (42.3%, scale leverage) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($2.2B, 4.3× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 7.0 | strong | balanced R&D investment (10.7%) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 43.3 weak momentum, 50d below |
| News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | mixed (47% buy) |
**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.
## Council (7-Lens)
| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +15.7% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 43 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +15.7% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +15.7% |
**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.
## Munger Lens
- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Moderate
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy
**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.
## Technical Levels
- **RSI(14):** 43.3 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az
- **50d MA:** $299 — hisse %6.7 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200d MA:** $226 — hisse %23.3 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -2%
## Past Performance (4 Quarters)
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY25 | $1.48 | $1.49 | MISS | -5.6% |
| Q4 FY25 | $1.27 | $1.29 | MISS | +9.9% |
| Q1 FY26 | $1.68 | $1.36 | BEAT | +19.4% |
| Q2 FY26 | $2.14 | $1.91 | +12.0% EPS | -3.1% |
Q2 (July 22, 2026): EPS $2.14 vs $1.91 est[FMP], +12.0% beat. D+1 movement: -3.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
## 3 Scenarios
### Scenario A · Beat
**Q1 EPS > $2.40 + CapEx discipline**
Threshold: EPS > $2.40[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $323[FMP target]; high target $405[FMP] upper bound.
### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $2.40 + CapEx < $514.0M**
Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.40[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $514.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $279[FMP] and median $323[FMP].
### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $2.33 or CapEx ≥ $514.0M**
Threshold: EPS < $2.33[FMP est×0.97].
Target: Current $279 below SMA200 $226[FMP], if rejection continues, $192[derived] support activates.
## Risk Notes
### Primary segment below threshold
Q2: EPS $2.14 vs $1.91 beat[FMP], stock -3.1% D+1[FMP].
### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26
### CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $514.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 42.3%[FMP op margin] — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
## Wall Street Consensus
- **Median target:** $323 (+15.7% upside vs current $279)
- **High / Low:** $405 / $225
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 17 / 17 / 2
- **Analyst count:** 21 (last quarter), 139 all-time
## Additional Transcript Insights
### 1. q3_guidance_market_strength
**Claim:** Texas Instruments expects above-seasonal Q3 growth driven by broad demand across industrial, data center, automotive, and personal electronics markets.
**Evidence (transcript):** "I think we -- right now, as we stand in July, we see a setup that -- of a stronger demand, and it's broader. It's not only in the last couple of quarters, it was really an industrial and data center play. Right now, we are seeing demand growing to the automotive market. I think my -- I'll talk about Q3. When you think about the above seasonal guide, I think the contribution will come from all markets. The 3 markets that we've -- that drove the 2Q growth, meaning industrial, data center and automotive. But Q3 is traditionally a quarter of personal electronics strength. So I expect strong demand across the board."
**Numbers:** Q3, 2Q, 3
### 2. automotive_market_inflection
**Claim:** The automotive market is experiencing an inflection point with accelerated demand, particularly in EVs and hybrids, compounded by customers having very low inventory levels.
**Evidence (transcript):** "Now regarding automotive, I think we saw a combination of a couple of things. I think we did see an uptick in -- and by the way, it developed throughout the quarter. So when we came to the call in April, we didn't have the same visibility. It built up as we went through the quarter, led by China. And I think it's really led by EVs and hybrids. Cost of fuel drove that, I believe. In addition, I think our automotive customers have taken their inventory to very low levels. And now as there is a little bit more demand, they find themselves in a situation that is not sustainable. I think that also drove part of the demand. I think we are in the start of a cycle that is very, very broad."
**Numbers:** April
### 3. pricing_initiatives_h2_2026
**Claim:** Texas Instruments has started executing price increases in the second half of the year, with some impact expected in Q3 and continuing into Q4 and next year, affecting both Analog and Embedded segments.
**Evidence (transcript):** "I will say that we have started executing price increases, yes. And because we go to the market direct, we have it -- the discussion. This is not a onetime discussion with our distribution channel. It's really a discussion customer by customer. So if you will, it will be -- it will be dependent on the customer. Some of it will start to play in, in Q3, but I expect that to continue into the fourth quarter. And also, some of our customers, we decide pricing once a year during our annual price discussions, and that happens only at the end of Q4. So that can continue also into the next year. Regarding the segments, meaning Analog and Embedded, look, where we see the most pressure, also within lead time escalations, I mentioned automotive. It's right now mainly on the Analog side. That's what we saw in the first part of the year. But I would say that Embedded is joining the trend. So if I can -- if I look at our opportunity for the second half of the year, I think we have an opportunity across all markets, but also across the 2 segments. I think the pricing discussions for Embedded will be more centered towards the next year."
**Numbers:** Q3, Q4, 2
### 4. factory_loadings_inventory
**Claim:** Texas Instruments increased factory loadings in Q2 and maintains available clean room space to support future demand, indicating readiness for various customer demand scenarios.
**Evidence (transcript):** "So our loadings did increase from first to second quarter. And throughout the second quarter, it did continue to increase. For third quarter, it will really depend on what demand looks like, but we do have clean room space available that we can equip and ramp so we can support a wide range of scenarios from a customer demand standpoint."
**Numbers:** —
### 5. data_center_tailwinds
**Claim:** The data center market is expected to continue strong demand, with future architectures like 800 volts providing a significant tailwind by increasing the total addressable market and conversion stages for Analog and Embedded parts.
**Evidence (transcript):** "Again, we do continue to see strong demand in the data center market, Atif, and I don't expect that to change in the foreseeable future. I think when you talk -- think about future architectures like 800 volts, it will be phased into the market. I think you can envision at the beginning, maybe an AC to DC, maybe AC to 800 volts and then an 800 to 48, 48 to 12, for example, right? That's how you bring in the technology. So to me, that just means higher growth of the TAM, more conversion stages and that helps our market on the Analog and Embedded side, if you think about the different Analog parts participating in every conversion stage and also the Embedded controllers and the signal chain part. So I think that is a tailwind to -- for our market."
**Numbers:** 800, 48, 12
### 6. industrial_market_recovery
**Claim:** The industrial market, despite recent growth, remains 5-6 points below its 2022 peak, suggesting significant room for continued growth, further supported by tailwinds from data center infrastructure and test and measurement.
**Evidence (transcript):** "Let me start with the industrial market, and maybe I'll say a few words about pricing at the end. So look, the -- I think, Vivek, we have a lot of opportunity in front of us. We -- even with a nice growth in Q2, we are still -- I have to go back to 2022, and we are still lower than that peak, maybe 5 or 6 points lower than the 2022 peak. So if you think about a trend line of the industrial market, and I like to think about it as mid- to high single-digit growth on a market TAM opportunity. You -- and you're 4 years later, one can argue that we still have a lot of room to grow ahead of us. On top of it, I think the data center market is also providing tailwind into the industrial market. Think about sectors like the energy infrastructure and think about test and measurement. And they were our fastest-growing segments or sectors, as we call them in the second quarter or the first half of the year. So I think there is more tailwinds ahead. I do believe that customers are early and are not yet building inventory. So I think the setup is very positive."
**Numbers:** Q2, 2022, 5, 6, 4
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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-07-31), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*