--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/txt last_updated: 2026-05-09T14:53:58.541Z --- # Textron Inc. (TXT) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T14:53:58.105Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $91.01 (▼ -0.63%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $15.8B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $72.00 – $101.57 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 23 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.56 (+1% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $3.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 6/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $109 (+19.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 21/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Textron Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $3.8B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.56^{[FMP est]}. 6 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 21 = MoonshotScore 21^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Aviation Backlog Growth Textron Aviation has increased its backlog by more than 4x since pre-COVID from $1.7 billion in 2019 to $8 billion at the end of this quarter. > "Textron Aviation is in a very strong position having increased its backlog by more than 4x since pre-COVID from $1.7 billion in 2019 to $8 billion at the end of this quarter." > — Lisa Atherton, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. New Textron Revenue Profit New Textron would have approximately $12 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in segment profit. > "New Textron would have approximately $12 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in segment profit as a pure-play company." > — Lisa Atherton, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Aviation Aftermarket Growth We also saw strong aftermarket performance, which resulted in 10% growth in aftermarket revenues. > "We also saw strong aftermarket performance, which resulted in 10% growth in aftermarket revenues." > — Lisa Atherton, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Industrial Segment Separation Textron plans to separate its A&D businesses and the industrial segment, targeting completion of the separation within 12 to 18 months. > "We will work through alternatives on the approach over the coming quarters and are targeting a completion of the separation within 12 to 18 months." > — Lisa Atherton, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Mv75 Cheyenne Funding The Trump administration's 2027 budget calls for $2.3 billion of funding for 2027 scaling to $3.8 billion in FY '31 across research, development, test and evaluation as well as procurement for the MV-75 Cheyenne program. > "As this relates to the MV-75 Cheyenne, the Future Years Defense Program, or FYDP, calls for $2.3 billion of funding for 2027 scaling to $3.8 billion in FY '31 across research, development, test and evaluation as well as procurement." > — Lisa Atherton, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Aviation Jet Turboprop Deliveries We got off to a strong start to the year with 37 jet deliveries and 35 commercial turboprop deliveries. > "We got off to a strong start to the year with 37 jet deliveries and 35 commercial turboprop deliveries." > — Lisa Atherton, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-0.6%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 1.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (8.7%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (6.1%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.3B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (-0.9%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 49.5 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 3.0 | weak | mixed (33% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +19.8% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 49 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +19.8% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +19.8% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 49.5 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $91 — hisse %0.5 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $87 — hisse %4.8 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -18% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.55 | $1.45 | BEAT | -1.8% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.55 | $1.46 | BEAT | +2.2% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.73 | $1.70 | BEAT | +1.2% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.45 | $1.30 | +11.5% EPS | -1.3% | Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $1.45 vs $1.30 est^[FMP], +11.5% beat. D+1 movement: -1.3%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.56 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.56^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $109^{[FMP target]}; high target $110^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.56 + CapEx < $133.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.56^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $133.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $91^[FMP] and median $109^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.51 or CapEx ≥ $133.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.51^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $91 below SMA200 $87^[FMP], if rejection continues, $74^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.45 vs $1.30 beat^[FMP], stock -1.3% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $133.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 6.1%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $109 (+19.8% upside vs current $91) - **High / Low:** $110 / $100 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 6 / 12 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 3 (last quarter), 19 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. industrial_segment_separation **Claim:** Textron plans to separate its A&D businesses and the industrial segment, targeting completion of the separation within 12 to 18 months. **Evidence (transcript):** "We will work through alternatives on the approach over the coming quarters and are targeting a completion of the separation within 12 to 18 months." **Numbers:** 12, 18 ### 2. new_textron_revenue_profit **Claim:** New Textron would have approximately $12 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in segment profit. **Evidence (transcript):** "New Textron would have approximately $12 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in segment profit as a pure-play company." **Numbers:** $12, $1.2 ### 3. aviation_backlog_growth **Claim:** Textron Aviation has increased its backlog by more than 4x since pre-COVID from $1.7 billion in 2019 to $8 billion at the end of this quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "Textron Aviation is in a very strong position having increased its backlog by more than 4x since pre-COVID from $1.7 billion in 2019 to $8 billion at the end of this quarter." **Numbers:** 4x, $1.7, 2019, $8 ### 4. mv75_cheyenne_funding **Claim:** The Trump administration's 2027 budget calls for $2.3 billion of funding for 2027 scaling to $3.8 billion in FY '31 across research, development, test and evaluation as well as procurement for the MV-75 Cheyenne program. **Evidence (transcript):** "As this relates to the MV-75 Cheyenne, the Future Years Defense Program, or FYDP, calls for $2.3 billion of funding for 2027 scaling to $3.8 billion in FY '31 across research, development, test and evaluation as well as procurement." **Numbers:** $2.3, 2027, $3.8, 31 ### 5. aviation_jet_turboprop_deliveries **Claim:** We got off to a strong start to the year with 37 jet deliveries and 35 commercial turboprop deliveries. **Evidence (transcript):** "We got off to a strong start to the year with 37 jet deliveries and 35 commercial turboprop deliveries." **Numbers:** 37, 35 ### 6. aviation_aftermarket_growth **Claim:** We also saw strong aftermarket performance, which resulted in 10% growth in aftermarket revenues. **Evidence (transcript):** "We also saw strong aftermarket performance, which resulted in 10% growth in aftermarket revenues." **Numbers:** 10% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*