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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/tyl
last_updated: 2026-05-09T15:27:54.002Z
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# Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T15:27:53.544Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $324.58 (▼ -1.96%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $13.7B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $283.72 – $621.34 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Wed 29 Jul | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $3.23 (+11% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $648.5M | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $450 (+38.6% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 53/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived |

## Tyler Technologies, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$648.5M</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$3.23</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 1 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 53

= MoonshotScore <strong>53</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (5 metrics)

### 1. Cross Sell Opportunity

Tyler Technologies aims to increase the average number of products per customer from 3 to 10-12, leveraging its strategic initiatives to achieve this goal.

> "Yes, Rob, I'd actually say we're looking for 3 products -- average of 3 to go to 10 to 12, not 7 to 8, but I'm not going to quibble."
> — H. Moore, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Ftr Acquisition Impact

The acquisition of For The Record (FTR) will increase Tyler Technologies' revenue guidance by approximately $30 million and contribute a modest amount to EPS.

> "FTR adds somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million of revenues to the full year and a modest amount to EPS."
> — Brian Miller, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Ai Tailwind

While AI is a tailwind for Tyler Technologies, it's not a big one at this point; however, the company is making the right investments and partnering with clients.

> "As it relates to AI, I think it's a tailwind. I wouldn't say it's a big tailwind at this point. We have a lot of AI initiatives going. We've got AI in a lot of our products. It's embedded in our workflows."
> — H. Moore, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Ai Product Ramp

Tyler Technologies expects a slower ramp to market for its AI products, as the public sector generally moves slower than the private sector.

> "But I would generally say it's going to be a slower ramp. Our sector generally moves a little slower than the private sector."
> — H. Moore, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Saas Transition Confidence

Tyler Technologies has high confidence in its SaaS transition, with increasing customer receptiveness to moving to the cloud.

> "I'd say my confidence level in our cloud transition, both in terms of customers flipping to the cloud and what we're doing from an operational perspective are really high."
> — H. Moore, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 1.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+2.9%, below threshold) |
| Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (48.3%) |
| Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (16.3%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.1B, 32.1× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 7.0 | strong | balanced R&D investment (9.1%) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 43.4 weak momentum, 50d below |
| News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (82%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +38.6% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 43 |
| Klarman | bull | value · target upside +38.6% |
| Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 3/5 |
| Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +38.6% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Undervalued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Strong
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 43.4 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az
- **50d MA:** $342 — hisse %5.1 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200d MA:** $445 — hisse %27.1 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** -42%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $2.91 | $2.77 | BEAT | +5.4% |
| Q3 FY25 | $2.97 | $2.86 | BEAT | +0.0% |
| Q4 FY25 | $2.64 | $2.71 | MISS | -15.4% |
| Q1 FY26 | $3.09 | $3.01 | +2.7% EPS | -4.2% |

Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $3.09 vs $3.01 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +2.7% beat. D+1 movement: -4.2%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $3.23 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $3.23<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $450<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $550<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $3.23 + CapEx < $3.2M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $3.23<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $3.2M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $325<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $450<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $3.13 or CapEx ≥ $3.2M**

Threshold: EPS < $3.13<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $325 below SMA200 $445<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $378<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $3.09 vs $3.01 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock -4.2% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $3.2M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q1 op margin 16.3%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $450 (+38.6% upside vs current $325)
- **High / Low:** $550 / $360
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 18 / 4 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 12 (last quarter), 49 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. saas_transition_confidence

**Claim:** Tyler Technologies has high confidence in its SaaS transition, with increasing customer receptiveness to moving to the cloud.

**Evidence (transcript):** "I'd say my confidence level in our cloud transition, both in terms of customers flipping to the cloud and what we're doing from an operational perspective are really high."

**Numbers:** —

### 2. ai_tailwind

**Claim:** While AI is a tailwind for Tyler Technologies, it's not a big one at this point; however, the company is making the right investments and partnering with clients.

**Evidence (transcript):** "As it relates to AI, I think it's a tailwind. I wouldn't say it's a big tailwind at this point. We have a lot of AI initiatives going. We've got AI in a lot of our products. It's embedded in our workflows."

**Numbers:** —

### 3. ftr_acquisition_impact

**Claim:** The acquisition of For The Record (FTR) will increase Tyler Technologies' revenue guidance by approximately $30 million and contribute a modest amount to EPS.

**Evidence (transcript):** "FTR adds somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million of revenues to the full year and a modest amount to EPS."

**Numbers:** $30 million

### 4. ai_product_ramp

**Claim:** Tyler Technologies expects a slower ramp to market for its AI products, as the public sector generally moves slower than the private sector.

**Evidence (transcript):** "But I would generally say it's going to be a slower ramp. Our sector generally moves a little slower than the private sector."

**Numbers:** —

### 5. cross_sell_opportunity

**Claim:** Tyler Technologies aims to increase the average number of products per customer from 3 to 10-12, leveraging its strategic initiatives to achieve this goal.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Yes, Rob, I'd actually say we're looking for 3 products -- average of 3 to go to 10 to 12, not 7 to 8, but I'm not going to quibble."

**Numbers:** 3, 10, 12


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*