--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/ual last_updated: 2026-05-09T11:58:11.422Z --- # United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T11:58:10.853Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $99.58 (▼ -0.12%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $32.3B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $71.55 – $119.21 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 15 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.80 (-53% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $17.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $136 (+36.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 51/100 | derived | | Council | 5/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## United Airlines Holdings, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $17.6B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.80^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/6 · **Moonshot:** 51 = MoonshotScore 51^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 5/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Full Year Eps Guidance United expects to deliver full year 2026 EPS in the $7 to $11 range. > "We expect to deliver full year 2026 EPS in the $7 to $11 range." > — Michael Leskinen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Debt Reduction United paid down more than $3.1 billion in debt in Q1 and continues to march towards its goal of being investment grade. > "In the quarter, we took actions to make further progress towards this goal and paid down more than $3.1 billion in debt, unencumbering more assets by accelerating our repayment of $2 billion of our notes that were secured by our slots, gates and routes while also prepaying $400 million of near-term maturity or higher cost aircraft debt." > — Michael Leskinen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Premium Demand Strength United saw a 13.6% increase in premium revenues and an 8.9% increase in premium RASMs in Q1. > "Premium demand remains strong with Q1 premium revenues up 13.6% on 4.4% increase in capacity. Premium RASMs were up 8.9% year-over-year, leading main cabin by 4 points." > — Andrew Nocella, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Capacity Adjustment United is targeting capacity to be flat to up 2% for 3Q and 4Q on a year-over-year basis due to higher fuel prices. > "For United, that means we're targeting capacity to be flat to up 2% for 3Q and 4Q on a year-over-year basis." > — Scott Kirby, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Fuel Cost Recapture Q2 United expects to recover between 40% and 50% of the current increase in fuel cost in 2Q. > "And in 2Q, we expect to recover between 40% and 50% of the current increase." > — Andrew Nocella, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Fuel Cost Recovery United aims to recover 100% of the increase in jet fuel costs and achieve double-digit pretax margins in 2027. > "For United, here's how we're thinking about our goals to get to 100% pass-through and achieve double-digit margins in 2027." > — Scott Kirby, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-4.1%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (63.3%) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (6.8%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF strong ($3.1B FCF, covers CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 57.7 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (92%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +36.1% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 58 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +36.1% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +36.1% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 57.7 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $94 — hisse %6.0 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $101 — hisse %1.3 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -34% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $3.87 | $3.81 | BEAT | +3.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.78 | $2.65 | BEAT | -5.6% | | Q4 FY25 | $3.10 | $2.93 | BEAT | +2.2% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.19 | $1.08 | +10.2% EPS | -5.6% | Q1 (April 22, 2026): EPS $1.19 vs $1.08 est^[FMP], +10.2% beat. D+1 movement: -5.6%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.80 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.80^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $136^{[FMP target]}; high target $150^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.80 + CapEx < $1.7B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.80^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $1.7B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $100^[FMP] and median $136^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.75 or CapEx ≥ $1.7B** Threshold: EPS < $1.75^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $100 below SMA200 $101^[FMP], if rejection continues, $86^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.19 vs $1.08 beat^[FMP], stock -5.6% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $1.7B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 6.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $136 (+36.1% upside vs current $100) - **High / Low:** $150 / $112 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 24 / 2 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 5 (last quarter), 81 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. fuel_cost_recovery **Claim:** United aims to recover 100% of the increase in jet fuel costs and achieve double-digit pretax margins in 2027. **Evidence (transcript):** "For United, here's how we're thinking about our goals to get to 100% pass-through and achieve double-digit margins in 2027." **Numbers:** 100%, 2027 ### 2. capacity_adjustment **Claim:** United is targeting capacity to be flat to up 2% for 3Q and 4Q on a year-over-year basis due to higher fuel prices. **Evidence (transcript):** "For United, that means we're targeting capacity to be flat to up 2% for 3Q and 4Q on a year-over-year basis." **Numbers:** 2%, 3Q, 4Q ### 3. premium_demand_strength **Claim:** United saw a 13.6% increase in premium revenues and an 8.9% increase in premium RASMs in Q1. **Evidence (transcript):** "Premium demand remains strong with Q1 premium revenues up 13.6% on 4.4% increase in capacity. Premium RASMs were up 8.9% year-over-year, leading main cabin by 4 points." **Numbers:** 13.6%, 4.4%, 8.9%, 4 ### 4. fuel_cost_recapture_q2 **Claim:** United expects to recover between 40% and 50% of the current increase in fuel cost in 2Q. **Evidence (transcript):** "And in 2Q, we expect to recover between 40% and 50% of the current increase." **Numbers:** 40%, 50%, 2Q ### 5. full_year_eps_guidance **Claim:** United expects to deliver full year 2026 EPS in the $7 to $11 range. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect to deliver full year 2026 EPS in the $7 to $11 range." **Numbers:** 2026, $7, $11 ### 6. debt_reduction **Claim:** United paid down more than $3.1 billion in debt in Q1 and continues to march towards its goal of being investment grade. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the quarter, we took actions to make further progress towards this goal and paid down more than $3.1 billion in debt, unencumbering more assets by accelerating our repayment of $2 billion of our notes that were secured by our slots, gates and routes while also prepaying $400 million of near-term maturity or higher cost aircraft debt." **Numbers:** $3.1 billion, $2 billion, $400 million --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*