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last_updated: 2026-05-03T23:34:19.115Z
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# Visa Inc. (V) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T23:34:18.136Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $328.03 (▼ -0.55%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $628.8B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $293.89 – $375.51 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Tue 28 Jul | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $3.20 (+7% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $11.3B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 7/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $385 (+17.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 69/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Visa Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$11.3B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$3.20</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 7 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 69

= MoonshotScore <strong>69</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (4 metrics)

### 1. Visa Direct Growth

Visa Direct transactions grew by 23%, demonstrating strong growth in money movement solutions.

> "Visa Direct transactions grew 23% year-over-year, consistent with Q1, driven by continued strength in domestic and cross-border."
> — Christopher Suh, Visa's Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 2. Value Added Services Growth

Value-added services (VAS) revenue grew by 27%, playing a significant role in Visa's growth.

> "Value-added services revenue grew 27% in the second quarter in constant dollars, and we are just getting started."
> — Ryan McInerney, Visa's Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 3. Commercial And Money Movement Growth

Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew by 24%, demonstrating Visa's success in this area.

> "Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew 24% year-over-year in constant dollars."
> — Christopher Suh, Visa's Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 4. Stablecoin Settlement Volume

Visa's stablecoin settlement volume is growing rapidly, reaching an annual run rate of $7 billion, up more than 50% since last quarter.

> "We currently have a $7 billion annual run rate of stablecoin settlement volume, and it's growing fast, up more than 50% since last quarter."
> — Ryan McInerney, Visa's Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 5.0 | medium | Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+10.4%) |
| Gross Margin | 8.0 | strong | Q2: very high margin (81.3%, software/cloud territory) |
| Operating Leverage | 6.0 | medium | op margin very strong (64.4%, scale leverage) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($2.6B, 6.9× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 63.9 positive momentum, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (92%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +17.4% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 64 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +17.4% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +17.4% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Moderate
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 63.9 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50d MA:** $311 — hisse %5.6 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $333 — hisse %1.4 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** -17%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY25 | $2.98 | $2.85 | BEAT | -0.1% |
| Q4 FY25 | $2.98 | $2.97 | BEAT | -1.6% |
| Q1 FY26 | $3.17 | $3.14 | BEAT | -3.0% |
| Q2 FY26 | $3.31 | $3.10 | +6.8% EPS | +8.3% |

Q2 (April 28, 2026): EPS $3.31 vs $3.10 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +6.8% beat. D+1 movement: +8.3%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $3.20 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $3.20<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $385<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $415<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $3.20 + CapEx < $383.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $3.20<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $383.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $328<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $385<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $3.10 or CapEx ≥ $383.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $3.10<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $328 below SMA200 $333<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $283<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q2: EPS $3.31 vs $3.10 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +8.3% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $383.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q2 op margin 64.4%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $385 (+17.4% upside vs current $328)
- **High / Low:** $415 / $160
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 35 / 3 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 7 (last quarter), 106 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. value_added_services_growth

**Claim:** Value-added services (VAS) revenue grew by 27%, playing a significant role in Visa's growth.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Value-added services revenue grew 27% in the second quarter in constant dollars, and we are just getting started."

**Numbers:** 27%

### 2. visa_direct_growth

**Claim:** Visa Direct transactions grew by 23%, demonstrating strong growth in money movement solutions.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Visa Direct transactions grew 23% year-over-year, consistent with Q1, driven by continued strength in domestic and cross-border."

**Numbers:** 23%

### 3. commercial_and_money_movement_growth

**Claim:** Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew by 24%, demonstrating Visa's success in this area.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew 24% year-over-year in constant dollars."

**Numbers:** 24%

### 4. stablecoin_settlement_volume

**Claim:** Visa's stablecoin settlement volume is growing rapidly, reaching an annual run rate of $7 billion, up more than 50% since last quarter.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We currently have a $7 billion annual run rate of stablecoin settlement volume, and it's growing fast, up more than 50% since last quarter."

**Numbers:** $7 billion, 50%

### 5. q3_revenue_growth_expectations

**Claim:** Visa expects Q3 net revenue growth in the low double digits, but it will be the lowest growth quarter of the year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We expect Q3 net revenue growth in the low double digits. Consistent with the directional comments provided at the start of the year, this low double-digit growth should be the lowest growth quarter of the year."

**Numbers:** —

### 6. agentic_commerce_growth

**Claim:** Visa expects an increase in transaction volumes and revenues with the adoption of AI and agentic commerce.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We expect more transactions, more value-added services and therefore, more revenue in the years ahead from agentic."

**Numbers:** —


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*