--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/vrsk last_updated: 2026-05-09T13:30:15.323Z --- # Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T13:30:14.922Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $171.87 (▼ -1.61%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $22.5B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $161.70 – $322.92 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 29 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.95 (+4% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $804.1M | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B- (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $227 (+32.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 50/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Verisk Analytics, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $804.1M^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.95^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 50 = MoonshotScore 50^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Subscription Revenue Growth Subscription revenues grew 7% on an OCC basis. > "In the first quarter 2026, subscription revenues, which comprised 84% of our total revenues in the quarter, grew 7% on an OCC basis, compounding on top of a 10.6% organic constant currency increase from the first quarter of the prior year." > — Elizabeth Mann, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Adjusted Ebitda Margin Expansion Total adjusted EBITDA margin were 55.9%, up 60 basis points from the prior year. > "OCC adjusted EBITDA growth was 5.9% in the quarter, while total adjusted EBITDA margin, which includes both organic and inorganic results, were 55.9%, up 60 basis points from the prior year." > — Elizabeth Mann, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. 2026 Revenue Guidance We are reaffirming our outlook for 2026. More specifically, we continue to expect consolidated revenue in the range of $3.19 billion to $3.24 billion. > "We are reaffirming our outlook for 2026. More specifically, we continue to expect consolidated revenue in the range of $3.19 billion to $3.24 billion." > — Elizabeth Mann, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Organic Revenue Growth Verisk delivered organic constant currency revenue growth of 4.7%. > "Verisk delivered organic constant currency revenue growth of 4.7% with growth across both underwriting and claims and sustained strong growth of 7% in subscription revenues." > — Lee Shavel, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Aerial Imagery Growth Client adoption has been strong with our enhanced aerial imagery offerings, growing revenue more than 30% over the last 2 years. > "Client adoption has been strong with our enhanced aerial imagery offerings, growing revenue more than 30% over the last 2 years." > — Lee Shavel, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 1.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+1.3%, below threshold) | | Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (69.8%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 5.0 | medium | op margin very strong (45.0%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.3B, 5.1× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 41.4 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (53%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +32.1% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 41 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +32.1% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +32.1% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 41.4 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $189 — hisse %8.9 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $222 — hisse %22.5 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -27% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.88 | $1.78 | BEAT | +1.2% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.72 | $1.70 | BEAT | +4.6% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.82 | $1.61 | BEAT | -0.1% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.82 | $1.76 | +3.4% EPS | -2.0% | Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $1.82 vs $1.76 est^[FMP], +3.4% beat. D+1 movement: -2.0%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.95 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.95^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $227^{[FMP target]}; high target $260^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.95 + CapEx < $64.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.95^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $64.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $172^[FMP] and median $227^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.89 or CapEx ≥ $64.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.89^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $172 below SMA200 $222^[FMP], if rejection continues, $188^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.82 vs $1.76 beat^[FMP], stock -2.0% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $64.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 45.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $227 (+32.1% upside vs current $172) - **High / Low:** $260 / $223 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 10 / 8 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 10 (last quarter), 36 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. organic_revenue_growth **Claim:** Verisk delivered organic constant currency revenue growth of 4.7%. **Evidence (transcript):** "Verisk delivered organic constant currency revenue growth of 4.7% with growth across both underwriting and claims and sustained strong growth of 7% in subscription revenues." **Numbers:** 4.7%, 7% ### 2. subscription_revenue_growth **Claim:** Subscription revenues grew 7% on an OCC basis. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the first quarter 2026, subscription revenues, which comprised 84% of our total revenues in the quarter, grew 7% on an OCC basis, compounding on top of a 10.6% organic constant currency increase from the first quarter of the prior year." **Numbers:** 2026, 84%, 7%, 10.6% ### 3. adjusted_ebitda_margin_expansion **Claim:** Total adjusted EBITDA margin were 55.9%, up 60 basis points from the prior year. **Evidence (transcript):** "OCC adjusted EBITDA growth was 5.9% in the quarter, while total adjusted EBITDA margin, which includes both organic and inorganic results, were 55.9%, up 60 basis points from the prior year." **Numbers:** 5.9%, 55.9%, 60 ### 4. 2026_revenue_guidance **Claim:** We are reaffirming our outlook for 2026. More specifically, we continue to expect consolidated revenue in the range of $3.19 billion to $3.24 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are reaffirming our outlook for 2026. More specifically, we continue to expect consolidated revenue in the range of $3.19 billion to $3.24 billion." **Numbers:** 2026, $3.19 billion, $3.24 billion ### 5. ai_driven_fraud_detection **Claim:** Our digital media forensics is an AI-powered solution that automates anomaly detection in photos and documents, a growing source of fraud risk for the industry. **Evidence (transcript):** "And within our anti-fraud business, our digital media forensics is an AI-powered solution that automates anomaly detection in photos and documents, a growing source of fraud risk for the industry." **Numbers:** — ### 6. aerial_imagery_growth **Claim:** Client adoption has been strong with our enhanced aerial imagery offerings, growing revenue more than 30% over the last 2 years. **Evidence (transcript):** "Client adoption has been strong with our enhanced aerial imagery offerings, growing revenue more than 30% over the last 2 years." **Numbers:** 30%, 2 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*