--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/vrtx last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:46:03.000Z --- # Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-04 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:46:01.860Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $423.92 (▼ -0.81%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $107.8B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $362.50 – $507.92 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Mon 4 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $4.23 (+4% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $3.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $558 (+31.6% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 66/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $3.0B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $4.23^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 66 = MoonshotScore 66^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Effective Tax Rate Guidance Vertex anticipates its non-GAAP effective tax rate to be in the range of 19.5% to 20.5% for 2026. > "We anticipate our non-GAAP effective tax rate to be in the range of 19.5% to 20.5% for 2026 as we do not expect a repeat of the onetime tax benefits we experienced in 2025." > — Charles Wagner, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. 2026 Revenue Growth Vertex anticipates total company revenue growth of 8% to 9% in 2026. > "We expect full year 2026 total company revenue to be in the range of $12.95 billion to $13.1 billion, representing 8% to 9% growth versus the prior year." > — Charles Wagner, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Operating Expense Guidance Vertex anticipates combined non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $5.65 billion to $5.75 billion for 2026. > "Additionally, we expect combined non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $5.65 billion to $5.75 billion as we continue to invest in our late-stage clinical pipeline and commercial buildouts in support of new launches and revenue diversification, particularly for JOURNAVX in acute pain and for renal." > — Charles Wagner, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. Non CF Revenue Contribution Vertex expects a $500 million or greater revenue contribution from non-CF products in 2026. > "This outlook anticipates continued solid performance from our CF franchise and a $500 million or greater revenue contribution from non-CF products, including greater volumes of patient infusions for CASGEVY and a ramp of JOURNAVX prescriptions." > — Charles Wagner, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 5. Journavx Prescription Growth Vertex expects JOURNAVX prescriptions to more than triple in 2026 compared to 2025. > "In 2026, we expect to more than triple the number of JOURNAVX prescriptions compared to approximately 550,000 written in 2025." > — Duncan J. McKechnie, Chief Commercial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 8.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+16.5%) | | Gross Margin | 9.0 | strong | Q4: very high margin (85.6%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 4.0 | medium | op margin very strong (40.3%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.3B, 2.3× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | very high R&D (32.9%, margin pressure risk) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 38.7 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (81%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +31.6% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 39 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +31.6% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +31.6% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 38.7 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $454 — hisse %6.5 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $436 — hisse %2.8 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -13% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $4.06 | $4.25 | MISS | -10.0% | | Q2 FY25 | $4.52 | $4.29 | BEAT | -20.6% | | Q3 FY25 | $4.80 | $4.57 | BEAT | -1.0% | | Q4 FY25 | $5.03 | $5.11 | +-1.6% EPS | +5.7% | Q4 (February 12, 2026): EPS $5.03 vs $5.11 est^[FMP], +-1.6% beat. D+1 movement: +5.7%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $4.23 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $4.23^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $558^{[FMP target]}; high target $612^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $4.23 + CapEx < $149.4M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $4.23^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $149.4M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $424^[FMP] and median $558^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $4.10 or CapEx ≥ $149.4M** Threshold: EPS < $4.10^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $424 below SMA200 $436^[FMP], if rejection continues, $371^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $5.03 vs $5.11 beat^[FMP], stock +5.7% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $149.4M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin 40.3%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $558 (+31.6% upside vs current $424) - **High / Low:** $612 / $437 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 26 / 5 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 15 (last quarter), 87 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. 2026_revenue_growth **Claim:** Vertex anticipates total company revenue growth of 8% to 9% in 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect full year 2026 total company revenue to be in the range of $12.95 billion to $13.1 billion, representing 8% to 9% growth versus the prior year." **Numbers:** 8%, 9%, $12.95 billion, $13.1 billion ### 2. non_CF_revenue_contribution **Claim:** Vertex expects a $500 million or greater revenue contribution from non-CF products in 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "This outlook anticipates continued solid performance from our CF franchise and a $500 million or greater revenue contribution from non-CF products, including greater volumes of patient infusions for CASGEVY and a ramp of JOURNAVX prescriptions." **Numbers:** $500 million ### 3. journavx_prescription_growth **Claim:** Vertex expects JOURNAVX prescriptions to more than triple in 2026 compared to 2025. **Evidence (transcript):** "In 2026, we expect to more than triple the number of JOURNAVX prescriptions compared to approximately 550,000 written in 2025." **Numbers:** 550,000, 2025 ### 4. operating_expense_guidance **Claim:** Vertex anticipates combined non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $5.65 billion to $5.75 billion for 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "Additionally, we expect combined non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $5.65 billion to $5.75 billion as we continue to invest in our late-stage clinical pipeline and commercial buildouts in support of new launches and revenue diversification, particularly for JOURNAVX in acute pain and for renal." **Numbers:** $5.65 billion, $5.75 billion ### 5. effective_tax_rate_guidance **Claim:** Vertex anticipates its non-GAAP effective tax rate to be in the range of 19.5% to 20.5% for 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "We anticipate our non-GAAP effective tax rate to be in the range of 19.5% to 20.5% for 2026 as we do not expect a repeat of the onetime tax benefits we experienced in 2025." **Numbers:** 19.5%, 20.5%, 2026, 2025 ### 6. renal_franchise_potential **Claim:** Vertex anticipates that the renal franchise will ultimately rival the scale of our CF business. **Evidence (transcript):** "We anticipate that the renal franchise will ultimately rival the scale of our CF business, and we're seeking to bring the best elements of our success in CF to these kidney disease areas." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*