--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/vst last_updated: 2026-05-05T21:09:54.140Z --- # Vistra Corp. (VST) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T21:09:53.773Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $160.38 (▼ -0.29%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $54.3B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $133.73 – $219.82 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 7 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.32 (-242% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $5.2B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | C+ (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $225 (+40.0% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 33/100 | derived | | Council | 5/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Vistra Corp. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $5.2B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.32^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** C+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/6 · **Moonshot:** 33 = MoonshotScore 33^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 5/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Cash Generation Outlook Vistra projects to generate more than $10 billion of cash through year-end 2027. > "Based on our expectations for 2026 and our previously communicated range of midpoint opportunities for 2027 as well as the expected contribution in 2026 and 2027 from the Meta PPAs and the closing of the Cogentrix acquisition, we project to generate more than $10 billion of cash through year-end 2027." > — Kristopher Moldovan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. Load Growth Outlook Vistra expects calendar years 2026 and 2027 to continue to show growth, which would mark the first 4-year period of sustained growth since the 4-year period ending 2007. > "We expect calendar years 2026 and 2027 to continue to show growth, which would mark the first 4-year period of sustained growth since the 4-year period ending 2007." > — James Burke, President and Chief Executive Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Cogentrix Acquisition Accretion The Cogentrix acquisition is expected to deliver mid-single-digit adjusted free cash flow before growth per share accretion in 2027, with a high single-digit accretion on average over the '27 to '29 period. > "From a financial perspective, we view the purchase price as attractive at approximately $730 per kilowatt of capacity, net of expected tax benefits, and we expect the transaction to deliver mid-single-digit adjusted free cash flow before growth per share accretion in 2027, with a high single-digit accretion on average over the '27 to '29 period." > — James Burke, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. Share Repurchase Program Since initiating the program in November 2021, we have retired approximately 167 million shares at an average cost below $36 per share, delivering over $20 billion of value for our long-term shareholders. > "Since initiating the program in November 2021, we have retired approximately 167 million shares at an average cost below $36 per share, delivering over $20 billion of value for our long-term shareholders." > — Kristopher Moldovan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 5. Record Financial Performance Vistra achieved record financial performance in 2025, delivering approximately $5.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA and approximately $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth. > "For the full year, we achieved approximately $5.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA and approximately $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth, both meaningfully above the midpoint of our original guidance ranges." > — James Burke, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 6. Nuclear Ppa Impact Upon achieving full ramp of all the nuclear agreements, we see a pathway to nearly 25% adjusted free cash flow before growth accretion on an annual basis. > "Upon achieving full ramp of all the nuclear agreements, we see a pathway to nearly 25% adjusted free cash flow before growth accretion on an annual basis." > — James Burke, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q4 vs Q1: growth negative (-54.8%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 0.0 | weak | Q4: low margin (-55.6%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (-74.8%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.1B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 51.7 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 10.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (95%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +40.0% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 52 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +40.0% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +40.0% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 51.7 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $160 — hisse %0.4 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $178 — hisse %9.7 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -9% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $-0.93 | $0.54 | MISS | -3.7% | | Q2 FY25 | $0.81 | $0.88 | MISS | +2.4% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.75 | $2.08 | MISS | +3.5% | | Q4 FY25 | $0.54 | $2.31 | +-76.5% EPS | -1.7% | Q4 (February 26, 2026): EPS $0.54 vs $2.31 est^[FMP], +-76.5% beat. D+1 movement: -1.7%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.32 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.32^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $225^{[FMP target]}; high target $293^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.32 + CapEx < $1.5B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.32^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $1.5B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $160^[FMP] and median $225^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.28 or CapEx ≥ $1.5B** Threshold: EPS < $1.28^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $160 below SMA200 $178^[FMP], if rejection continues, $151^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $0.54 vs $2.31 beat^[FMP], stock -1.7% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $1.5B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin -74.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $225 (+40.0% upside vs current $160) - **High / Low:** $293 / $203 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 19 / 0 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 6 (last quarter), 41 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. record_financial_performance **Claim:** Vistra achieved record financial performance in 2025, delivering approximately $5.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA and approximately $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "For the full year, we achieved approximately $5.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA and approximately $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth, both meaningfully above the midpoint of our original guidance ranges." **Numbers:** $5.9, $3.6 ### 2. load_growth_outlook **Claim:** Vistra expects calendar years 2026 and 2027 to continue to show growth, which would mark the first 4-year period of sustained growth since the 4-year period ending 2007. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect calendar years 2026 and 2027 to continue to show growth, which would mark the first 4-year period of sustained growth since the 4-year period ending 2007." **Numbers:** 2026, 2027, 4, 2007 ### 3. cogentrix_acquisition_accretion **Claim:** The Cogentrix acquisition is expected to deliver mid-single-digit adjusted free cash flow before growth per share accretion in 2027, with a high single-digit accretion on average over the '27 to '29 period. **Evidence (transcript):** "From a financial perspective, we view the purchase price as attractive at approximately $730 per kilowatt of capacity, net of expected tax benefits, and we expect the transaction to deliver mid-single-digit adjusted free cash flow before growth per share accretion in 2027, with a high single-digit accretion on average over the '27 to '29 period." **Numbers:** $730, 2027, '27, '29 ### 4. nuclear_ppa_impact **Claim:** Upon achieving full ramp of all the nuclear agreements, we see a pathway to nearly 25% adjusted free cash flow before growth accretion on an annual basis. **Evidence (transcript):** "Upon achieving full ramp of all the nuclear agreements, we see a pathway to nearly 25% adjusted free cash flow before growth accretion on an annual basis." **Numbers:** 25% ### 5. cash_generation_outlook **Claim:** Vistra projects to generate more than $10 billion of cash through year-end 2027. **Evidence (transcript):** "Based on our expectations for 2026 and our previously communicated range of midpoint opportunities for 2027 as well as the expected contribution in 2026 and 2027 from the Meta PPAs and the closing of the Cogentrix acquisition, we project to generate more than $10 billion of cash through year-end 2027." **Numbers:** 2026, 2027, $10 ### 6. share_repurchase_program **Claim:** Since initiating the program in November 2021, we have retired approximately 167 million shares at an average cost below $36 per share, delivering over $20 billion of value for our long-term shareholders. **Evidence (transcript):** "Since initiating the program in November 2021, we have retired approximately 167 million shares at an average cost below $36 per share, delivering over $20 billion of value for our long-term shareholders." **Numbers:** 2021, 167, $36, $20 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*