--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/wm last_updated: 2026-05-09T17:50:23.316Z --- # Waste Management, Inc. (WM) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T17:50:22.750Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $215.37 (▼ -2.75%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $86.5B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $194.11 – $248.13 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Mon 27 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.01 (+5% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $6.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $258 (+19.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 41/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Waste Management, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $6.7B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.01^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 41 = MoonshotScore 41^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Recycling Ebitda Growth In the Recycling segment, even though pricing for single-stream commodities declined 27%. Operating EBITDA grew by 18% as we realized automation benefits that lower labor costs and higher quality material and processed 9% more volume. > "In the Recycling segment, even though pricing for single-stream commodities declined 27%. Operating EBITDA grew by 18% as we realized automation benefits that lower labor costs and higher quality material and processed 9% more volume." > — James Fish, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Collection Disposal Growth WM's Collection and Disposal business delivered strong performance, achieving 6.4% operating EBITDA growth, supported by focus on customer lifetime value, operational excellence, and network advantages. > "We First, we grew our Collection and Disposal business, achieving 6.4% operating EBITDA growth, supported by our focus on customer lifetime value, operational excellence and network advantages." > — James Fish, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Free Cash Flow Generation WM's strong operating performance translated into significant free cash flow generation with Q1 free cash flow of $920 million, nearly doubling from the prior year. > "Our strong operating performance translated into significant free cash flow generation with Q1 free cash flow of $920 million, nearly doubling from the prior year." > — James Fish, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Renewable Energy Ebitda Growth In Renewable Energy, operating EBITDA more than doubled in the quarter, driven by the completion of seven new renewable natural gas facilities since the first quarter of 2025. > "In Renewable Energy, operating EBITDA more than doubled in the quarter, driven by the completion of seven new renewable natural gas facilities since the first quarter of 2025." > — James Fish, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Shareholder Returns WM returned about $730 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. > "This enabled us to return about $730 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases." > — James Fish, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-3.2%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (40.7%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (17.9%) | | Cash Runway | 9.0 | strong | FCF strong ($0.9B FCF, covers CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 33.2 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | majority buy (68%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +19.8% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 33 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +19.8% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +19.8% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 33.2 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $231 — hisse %6.9 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $223 — hisse %3.4 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** +29% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.92 | $1.89 | BEAT | +3.4% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.98 | $2.01 | MISS | -4.5% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.93 | $1.95 | MISS | -3.7% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.81 | $1.75 | +3.4% EPS | +1.3% | Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $1.81 vs $1.75 est^[FMP], +3.4% beat. D+1 movement: +1.3%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.01 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.01^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $258^{[FMP target]}; high target $264^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.01 + CapEx < $650.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.01^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $650.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $215^[FMP] and median $258^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.95 or CapEx ≥ $650.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.95^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $215 below SMA200 $223^[FMP], if rejection continues, $190^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.81 vs $1.75 beat^[FMP], stock +1.3% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $650.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 17.9%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $258 (+19.8% upside vs current $215) - **High / Low:** $264 / $238 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 19 / 9 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 0 (last quarter), 38 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. collection_disposal_growth **Claim:** WM's Collection and Disposal business delivered strong performance, achieving 6.4% operating EBITDA growth, supported by focus on customer lifetime value, operational excellence, and network advantages. **Evidence (transcript):** "We First, we grew our Collection and Disposal business, achieving 6.4% operating EBITDA growth, supported by our focus on customer lifetime value, operational excellence and network advantages." **Numbers:** 6.4% ### 2. sustainability_investments_returns **Claim:** WM's Sustainability investments continue to generate meaningful returns, underscoring the value of the capital we've deployed over time. **Evidence (transcript):** "Second, our Sustainability investments continue to generate meaningful returns, underscoring the value of the capital we've deployed over time." **Numbers:** — ### 3. renewable_energy_ebitda_growth **Claim:** In Renewable Energy, operating EBITDA more than doubled in the quarter, driven by the completion of seven new renewable natural gas facilities since the first quarter of 2025. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Renewable Energy, operating EBITDA more than doubled in the quarter, driven by the completion of seven new renewable natural gas facilities since the first quarter of 2025." **Numbers:** seven ### 4. recycling_ebitda_growth **Claim:** In the Recycling segment, even though pricing for single-stream commodities declined 27%. Operating EBITDA grew by 18% as we realized automation benefits that lower labor costs and higher quality material and processed 9% more volume. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the Recycling segment, even though pricing for single-stream commodities declined 27%. Operating EBITDA grew by 18% as we realized automation benefits that lower labor costs and higher quality material and processed 9% more volume." **Numbers:** 27%, 18%, 9% ### 5. free_cash_flow_generation **Claim:** WM's strong operating performance translated into significant free cash flow generation with Q1 free cash flow of $920 million, nearly doubling from the prior year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our strong operating performance translated into significant free cash flow generation with Q1 free cash flow of $920 million, nearly doubling from the prior year." **Numbers:** $920 million ### 6. shareholder_returns **Claim:** WM returned about $730 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. **Evidence (transcript):** "This enabled us to return about $730 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases." **Numbers:** $730 million --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*