--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/wmt last_updated: 2026-05-03T23:27:58.238Z --- # Walmart Inc. (WMT) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-21 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T23:27:57.160Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $131.60 (▼ -0.25%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $1.05T | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $91.89 – $134.69 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 21 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $0.65 (+7% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $174.5B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $138 (+4.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 51/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Walmart Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $174.5B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $0.65^{[FMP est]}. 2 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 51 = MoonshotScore 51^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Membership Growth Membership fee income was up over 15% across the enterprise, and Walmart Plus membership income grew double digits. > "Membership fee income was up over 15% across the enterprise. In the US, Sam's Club continued to see steady growth in member counts, renewal rates, and increased penetration of Plus members, resulting in 7.6% membership income growth while Walmart Plus membership income grew double digits." > — John David Rainey, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Fy26 Sales Growth Guidance Walmart is raising its full-year sales growth guidance for FY26 to a range of 3.75% to 4.75%. > "Today, we're raising our full-year sales growth guidance in constant currency by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.75% growth." > — John David Rainey, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Advertising Growth Walmart's advertising business globally increased nearly 50% including Visio, and Walmart Connect in the US, ex VIZIO, grew more than 30%. > "Install growth in active customers and frequency, With strong growth in e-commerce, our advertising business globally increased nearly 50% including Visio. Walmart Connect in the US, ex VIZIO, grew more than 30%." > — John David Rainey, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Walmart Us Ecommerce Growth Walmart US e-commerce sales grew 26%, stepping up from the low 20% growth range we delivered over the prior four quarters. > "Walmart US e-commerce sales grew 26%. Stepping up from the low 20% growth range we delivered over the prior four quarters." > — John David Rainey, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Ecommerce Growth Walmart's e-commerce sales increased 25% year over year, driven by strong customer demand. > "E-commerce was a big contributor. With sales up 25% year over year driven by continued strong demand from customers for convenient and fast delivery, with order volumes increasing across our segments." > — John David Rainey, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 8.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+15.1%) | | Gross Margin | 2.0 | weak | Q4: low margin (24.7%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (4.6%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 7.0 | strong | FCF positive but absorbed ($6.1B vs $8.0B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 60.9 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (91%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +4.9% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 61 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +4.9% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +4.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 60.9 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $126 — hisse %4.7 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $112 — hisse %17.1 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -37% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY26 | $0.61 | $0.57 | BEAT | +2.0% | | Q2 FY26 | $0.68 | $0.73 | MISS | -1.2% | | Q3 FY26 | $0.62 | $0.60 | BEAT | -1.7% | | Q4 FY26 | $0.74 | $0.73 | +1.8% EPS | -1.5% | Q2 (August 21, 2025): EPS $0.74 vs $0.73 est^[FMP], +1.8% beat. D+1 movement: -1.5%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $0.65 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $0.65^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $138^{[FMP target]}; high target $150^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $0.65 + CapEx < $8.0B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $0.65^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $8.0B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $132^[FMP] and median $138^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $0.63 or CapEx ≥ $8.0B** Threshold: EPS < $0.63^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $132 below SMA200 $112^[FMP], if rejection continues, $96^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $0.74 vs $0.73 beat^[FMP], stock -1.5% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $8.0B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 4.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $138 (+4.9% upside vs current $132) - **High / Low:** $150 / $120 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 39 / 3 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 22 (last quarter), 209 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. fy26_sales_growth_guidance **Claim:** Walmart is raising its full-year sales growth guidance for FY26 to a range of 3.75% to 4.75%. **Evidence (transcript):** "Today, we're raising our full-year sales growth guidance in constant currency by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.75% growth." **Numbers:** 75, 3.75%, 4.75% ### 2. ecommerce_growth **Claim:** Walmart's e-commerce sales increased 25% year over year, driven by strong customer demand. **Evidence (transcript):** "E-commerce was a big contributor. With sales up 25% year over year driven by continued strong demand from customers for convenient and fast delivery, with order volumes increasing across our segments." **Numbers:** 25% ### 3. walmart_us_ecommerce_growth **Claim:** Walmart US e-commerce sales grew 26%, stepping up from the low 20% growth range we delivered over the prior four quarters. **Evidence (transcript):** "Walmart US e-commerce sales grew 26%. Stepping up from the low 20% growth range we delivered over the prior four quarters." **Numbers:** 26%, 20% ### 4. advertising_growth **Claim:** Walmart's advertising business globally increased nearly 50% including Visio, and Walmart Connect in the US, ex VIZIO, grew more than 30%. **Evidence (transcript):** "Install growth in active customers and frequency, With strong growth in e-commerce, our advertising business globally increased nearly 50% including Visio. Walmart Connect in the US, ex VIZIO, grew more than 30%." **Numbers:** 50%, 30% ### 5. membership_growth **Claim:** Membership fee income was up over 15% across the enterprise, and Walmart Plus membership income grew double digits. **Evidence (transcript):** "Membership fee income was up over 15% across the enterprise. In the US, Sam's Club continued to see steady growth in member counts, renewal rates, and increased penetration of Plus members, resulting in 7.6% membership income growth while Walmart Plus membership income grew double digits." **Numbers:** 15%, 7.6% ### 6. ai_acceleration **Claim:** Walmart created a new role reporting to the CEO to lead AI acceleration and announced another role reporting to the CTO focused on AI platforms. **Evidence (transcript):** "It's been years since we made a structural change for a role reporting to the CEO, and we've done it in this case because we're clear on a path to accelerate. We also announced a new role reporting to Suresh Kumar, our chief technology officer, that will focus on AI platforms." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*