--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/xom last_updated: 2026-05-03T23:32:47.026Z --- # Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T23:32:45.987Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $152.81 (▼ -0.98%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $635.2B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $101.19 – $176.41 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Fri 7 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $3.41 (+108% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $106.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 5/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $165 (+8.0% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 33/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Exxon Mobil Corporation — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $106.8B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $3.41^{[FMP est]}. 5 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 33 = MoonshotScore 33^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Permian Production Growth We remain on track to grow full year Permian production to 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels in 2026, with that growth grounded in value, not volume. > "We remain on track to grow full year Permian production to 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels in 2026, with that growth grounded in value, not volume." > — Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Refining Margins And Production Our Gulf Coast refineries, which is the largest footprint we have, it ran in the first quarter at record utilization rates and from February to March, we increased refining production by 200,000 barrels a day. > "If you look at our Gulf Coast refineries, which is the largest footprint we have, it ran in the first quarter at record utilization rates. And so, we've been very focused on reliability and making sure that the facilities that we have are running at peak production. And from February to March, we increased refining production by 200,000 barrels a day." > — Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Golden Pass Lng Golden Pass LNG's Train 1 achieved first LNG in March and will deliver an increase of about 5% relative to 2025 U.S. exports. > "Train 1 of the facility achieved first LNG in March and will deliver an increase of about 5% relative to 2025 U.S. exports." > — Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Beaumont Refinery Expansion The Beaumont refinery expansion, completed in 2023, fully recovered its initial investment ahead of expectation and is contributing to stronger margins and cash flow. > "The Beaumont refinery expansion, completed in 2023, fully recovered its initial investment ahead of expectation and is contributing to stronger margins and cash flow." > — Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 2.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+4.6%) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (37.7%) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (6.4%) | | Cash Runway | 5.0 | medium | FCF under pressure ($2.2B FCF vs $6.5B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 49.3 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 4.0 | medium | mixed (44% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +8.0% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 49 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +8.0% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +8.0% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 49.3 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $155 — hisse %1.3 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $128 — hisse %19.5 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -1% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.64 | $1.57 | BEAT | -2.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.88 | $1.82 | BEAT | -0.5% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.71 | $1.70 | BEAT | -2.1% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.16 | $0.98 | +17.9% EPS | no data | Q1 (May 1, 2026): EPS $1.16 vs $0.98 est^[FMP], +17.9% beat. D+1 movement: no data^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $3.41 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $3.41^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $165^{[FMP target]}; high target $185^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $3.41 + CapEx < $6.5B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $3.41^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $6.5B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $153^[FMP] and median $165^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $3.31 or CapEx ≥ $6.5B** Threshold: EPS < $3.31^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $153 below SMA200 $128^[FMP], if rejection continues, $109^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.16 vs $0.98 beat^[FMP], stock no data D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $6.5B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 6.4%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $165 (+8.0% upside vs current $153) - **High / Low:** $185 / $123 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 11 / 13 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 11 (last quarter), 109 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. golden_pass_lng **Claim:** Golden Pass LNG's Train 1 achieved first LNG in March and will deliver an increase of about 5% relative to 2025 U.S. exports. **Evidence (transcript):** "Train 1 of the facility achieved first LNG in March and will deliver an increase of about 5% relative to 2025 U.S. exports." **Numbers:** 5%, 2025 ### 2. guyana_production **Claim:** Guyana continues to set the standard for execution, development pace and value creation with record production and continued strong reliability. **Evidence (transcript):** "Guyana continues to set the standard for execution, development pace and value creation." **Numbers:** — ### 3. permian_production_growth **Claim:** We remain on track to grow full year Permian production to 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels in 2026, with that growth grounded in value, not volume. **Evidence (transcript):** "We remain on track to grow full year Permian production to 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels in 2026, with that growth grounded in value, not volume." **Numbers:** 1.8, 2026 ### 4. beaumont_refinery_expansion **Claim:** The Beaumont refinery expansion, completed in 2023, fully recovered its initial investment ahead of expectation and is contributing to stronger margins and cash flow. **Evidence (transcript):** "The Beaumont refinery expansion, completed in 2023, fully recovered its initial investment ahead of expectation and is contributing to stronger margins and cash flow." **Numbers:** 2023 ### 5. low_carbon_solutions_co2_capture **Claim:** In Low Carbon Solutions, we began transporting and storing captured CO2 from the New Generation Gas Gathering project, our second start-up in less than a year. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Low Carbon Solutions, we began transporting and storing captured CO2 from the New Generation Gas Gathering project, our second start-up in less than a year." **Numbers:** — ### 6. refining_margins_and_production **Claim:** Our Gulf Coast refineries, which is the largest footprint we have, it ran in the first quarter at record utilization rates and from February to March, we increased refining production by 200,000 barrels a day. **Evidence (transcript):** "If you look at our Gulf Coast refineries, which is the largest footprint we have, it ran in the first quarter at record utilization rates. And so, we've been very focused on reliability and making sure that the facilities that we have are running at peak production. And from February to March, we increased refining production by 200,000 barrels a day." **Numbers:** 200,000 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*