--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/xyl last_updated: 2026-05-09T12:20:34.201Z --- # Xylem Inc. (XYL) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T12:20:33.756Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $113.74 (▼ -1.64%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $27.0B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $113.46 – $154.27 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 30 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.35 (+7% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $2.3B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 6/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $158 (+38.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 33/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Xylem Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $2.3B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.35^{[FMP est]}. 6 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 33 = MoonshotScore 33^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Fy26 Revenue Guidance Xylem updated its full year reported revenue to be $9.2 billion to $9.3 billion, which delivers revenue growth of 2% to 3%. > "Full year reported revenue is now expected to be $9.2 billion to $9.3 billion, up from the prior guide of $9.1 billion to $9.2 billion, which delivers revenue growth of 2% to 3%." > — William Grogan, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Fy26 Ebitda Margin Guidance Xylem expects full year EBITDA margin to remain at 22.9% to 23.3%. This represents 70 basis points to 110 basis points of expansion versus the prior year, driven by productivity and price. > "EBITDA margin is expected to remain at 22.9% to 23.3%. This represents 70 basis points to 110 basis points of expansion versus the prior year, driven by productivity and price." > — William Grogan, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Applied Water Data Center Growth Data center orders in Q1 exceeded the full year amount for all of 2025. > "Data center orders in Q1 exceeded the full year amount for all of 2025." > — William Grogan, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Share Repurchase The company executed on $581 million in quarter 1 as part of a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization. > "In February, we announced a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization, executing on $581 million in quarter 1." > — Matthew Pine, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Wss Largest Order WSS booked its largest order ever with an $850 million outsourced water contract delivered over 20 years. > "To that end, WSS booked our largest order ever this month, an outsourced water contract for $850 million delivered over 20 years." > — Matthew Pine, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-7.6%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (37.8%) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (11.5%) | | Cash Runway | 5.0 | medium | FCF under pressure ($0.0B FCF vs $0.1B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (2.5%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 37.6 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (61%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +38.9% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 38 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +38.9% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 3/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +38.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 37.6 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $122 — hisse %6.7 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $136 — hisse %16.6 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -9% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.26 | $1.15 | BEAT | -1.7% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.37 | $1.23 | BEAT | +1.6% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.42 | $1.41 | BEAT | -1.7% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.12 | $1.09 | +2.8% EPS | -2.1% | Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $1.12 vs $1.09 est^[FMP], +2.8% beat. D+1 movement: -2.1%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.35 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.35^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $158^{[FMP target]}; high target $161^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.35 + CapEx < $90.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.35^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $90.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $114^[FMP] and median $158^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.31 or CapEx ≥ $90.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.31^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $114 below SMA200 $136^[FMP], if rejection continues, $116^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.12 vs $1.09 beat^[FMP], stock -2.1% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $90.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 11.5%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $158 (+38.9% upside vs current $114) - **High / Low:** $161 / $133 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 14 / 9 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 13 (last quarter), 40 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. wss_largest_order **Claim:** WSS booked its largest order ever with an $850 million outsourced water contract delivered over 20 years. **Evidence (transcript):** "To that end, WSS booked our largest order ever this month, an outsourced water contract for $850 million delivered over 20 years." **Numbers:** $850 million, 20 ### 2. share_repurchase **Claim:** The company executed on $581 million in quarter 1 as part of a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization. **Evidence (transcript):** "In February, we announced a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization, executing on $581 million in quarter 1." **Numbers:** $1.5 billion, $581 million, 1 ### 3. water_quality_acquisition **Claim:** Xylem signed an agreement to acquire a German firm that designs and manufactures highly-engineered water quality instruments; the company is a leader in submersible sensors for environmental monitoring. **Evidence (transcript):** "In March, we signed an agreement to acquire a German firm that designs and manufactures highly-engineered water quality instruments. The company is a leader in submersible sensors for environmental monitoring." **Numbers:** — ### 4. fy26_revenue_guidance **Claim:** Xylem updated its full year reported revenue to be $9.2 billion to $9.3 billion, which delivers revenue growth of 2% to 3%. **Evidence (transcript):** "Full year reported revenue is now expected to be $9.2 billion to $9.3 billion, up from the prior guide of $9.1 billion to $9.2 billion, which delivers revenue growth of 2% to 3%." **Numbers:** $9.2 billion, $9.3 billion, 2%, 3%, $9.1 billion, $9.2 billion ### 5. fy26_ebitda_margin_guidance **Claim:** Xylem expects full year EBITDA margin to remain at 22.9% to 23.3%. This represents 70 basis points to 110 basis points of expansion versus the prior year, driven by productivity and price. **Evidence (transcript):** "EBITDA margin is expected to remain at 22.9% to 23.3%. This represents 70 basis points to 110 basis points of expansion versus the prior year, driven by productivity and price." **Numbers:** 22.9%, 23.3%, 70, 110 ### 6. applied_water_data_center_growth **Claim:** Data center orders in Q1 exceeded the full year amount for all of 2025. **Evidence (transcript):** "Data center orders in Q1 exceeded the full year amount for all of 2025." **Numbers:** 1, 2025 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*