Stablecoins & Fiat Rails
US federal stablecoin law plus card-network and bank adoption are converting stablecoins from a crypto-trading utility into regulated dollar payment rails, creating a recurring reserve-income business tied to short-term Treasury yields.
The story
Total stablecoin supply roughly grew from about $205B at the start of 2025 to over $323B by May 2026, with USDT (~60% share) and USDC (~25% share) dominating. The July 2025 GENIUS Act gave the US its first federal framework for payment stablecoins, mandating 100% liquid reserves, monthly disclosures, and a permitted-issuer regime — removing the regulatory overhang that kept banks and payment networks on the sidelines. With the rules now set, issuers, exchanges, card networks, and chartered banks are competing to build dollar-denominated settlement and on-ramp infrastructure.
The outlook to 2030
Through 2026-2030, Citi's base case sees stablecoin supply reaching $1.9 trillion (bull case $4.0 trillion), with potential to support roughly $100 trillion in annual transaction volume at fiat-like velocity. The business model centers on reserve income: issuers earn yield on Treasury-backed reserves while distributors capture a share, and card networks layer stablecoin settlement onto existing rails. As yields, supply mix, and regulatory compliance costs evolve, the durable winners are likely those with distribution scale, banking charters, or entrenched network positions rather than the tokens themselves.
What is moving the capital
The forces routing money into this theme right now.
GENIUS Act establishes US federal stablecoin framework
The GENIUS Act created the first US federal regime for payment stablecoins, requiring full reserve backing in cash or short-term Treasuries and a permitted-issuer structure, opening clear pathways for banks and networks to participate (White House; Mayer Brown).
Visa launches institutional USDC settlement in the US
Visa went live with USDC settlement over Solana on December 16, 2025 for institutional fund movement and reached an annualized stablecoin settlement run rate of about $4.6B across more than 130 card programs in over 50 countries (Visa newsroom).
Reserve-income economics tied to short-term Treasury yields
Coinbase earns 100% of reserve income on USDC held on its platform and 50% generated elsewhere; stablecoin revenue reached about $355M in Q3 2025 as average USDC balances hit record highs (Coinbase Q3 2025 shareholder letter).
Chartered banks and fintechs issue native stablecoins
SoFi launched SoFiUSD in December 2025 as the first stablecoin issued by a US national bank on a public blockchain, while the Robinhood-backed Global Dollar Network (USDG) surpassed 100 partners and a $1B market cap (BusinessWire; PR Newswire).
リーダー銘柄
Structural large-cap anchors — lower-variance exposure to the theme.
Coinbase is the leading regulated US crypto exchange and a core stablecoin partner, positioning it as the clearest large-cap play on the on-chain dollar economy; its strategic focus on USDC and Base positions it to capture significant value as stablecoin adoption expands.
Why the excitement: Coinbase saw 10x year-over-year growth in stablecoin transactions on Base in Q1 2026, signaling strong on-chain adoption.
The honest risk: Regulatory headwinds or increased competition in the stablecoin market could compress Coinbase's revenue from this segment.
Visa offers investors a lower-volatility way to own the payments-rail shift towards stablecoins, leveraging its existing network for settlement. With the GENIUS Act clarifying regulatory parameters, Visa is positioned to capture stablecoin transaction volume through on-ramps, off-ramps, and value-added services.
Why the excitement: Visa's Q2 FY2026 earnings call highlighted their focus on providing on-ramps and off-ramps with stablecoin-linked Visa cards, signaling a commitment to integrating blockchain infrastructure.
The honest risk: Regulatory headwinds or slower-than-expected adoption of stablecoins could limit Visa's ability to capitalize on this emerging market.
Mastercard is strategically integrating stablecoin rails into its existing payment network, positioning itself as a key player in the evolving landscape of digital currencies and traditional finance. The company's established infrastructure and partnerships offer a lower-variance approach to capturing growth in the expanding stablecoin ecosystem.
Why the excitement: Mastercard's Q1 2026 earnings call highlighted continued growth in crypto co-brands, signaling strong cardholder adoption and revenue generation from digital asset initiatives.
The honest risk: Regulatory uncertainties surrounding stablecoins and the broader digital asset market could impact Mastercard's growth trajectory in this space.
非対称プレイ
Smaller names with higher upside and deeper potential drawdowns.
Robinhood is positioning itself as a mainstream on-ramp for stablecoins, leveraging its existing user base and expanding crypto offerings; however, regulatory hurdles and competition remain key risks.
Why the excitement: Management's focus on maximizing earnings per share and free cash flow per share, coupled with strong Q1 FY2026 results including 15% revenue growth to $1.07 billion, suggests a commitment to profitable expansion in the crypto space.
The honest risk: Despite its growth initiatives, Robinhood faces the risk of increased operating expenses, as evidenced by the raised full-year 2026 outlook for adjusted OpEx and SBC by $100 million due to investments in Trump Accounts.
Asymmetry: Large upside on crypto re-acceleration; deep drawdown if volumes and crypto prices fall.
SoFi is positioning itself at the intersection of fintech and crypto, potentially capitalizing on the growth of stablecoin payments and reserve income; however, regulatory hurdles and competition remain key risks. The company's diversified financial services and technology platform could benefit from increased stablecoin adoption.
Why the excitement: SoFi's Q1 2026 earnings call highlighted a remarkable start to the year, with adjusted net revenue ahead of expectations at $1.1 billion, up 41% year-over-year, suggesting strong growth momentum.
The honest risk: Despite the potential upside, SoFi faces regulatory uncertainty surrounding stablecoins and the risk of slower-than-expected adoption, potentially impacting its investment in this area.
Asymmetry: High upside on product expansion; sharp drawdown on credit or growth setbacks.
Circle Internet Group is positioned to benefit from the growth of the stablecoin market, particularly with its USDC offering and expansion into new financial infrastructure; however, regulatory risks and competition remain.
Why the excitement: USDC circulation ended Q1 FY2026 at $77 billion, up 28% year-on-year, reflecting underlying growth in noncrypto utility and use cases.
The honest risk: Despite growth, Circle faces regulatory uncertainty and competition from other stablecoin issuers, including those potentially backed by larger financial institutions.
Asymmetry: Large upside on stablecoin supply growth; deep drawdown given valuation and regulatory sensitivity.
Inside the theme
The sub-layers and the leaders that anchor each one.
よくある質問
Why are stablecoins an investment theme now?
Stablecoins became one of the largest crypto use cases — instant, global dollar settlement — and clarifying regulation is pulling them into mainstream payments, opening the door for networks, fintechs and banks.
Exchanges or payment networks?
Exchanges like Coinbase offer the most direct, higher-beta exposure; card networks like Visa and Mastercard give lower-volatility exposure to the same settlement shift.
Is this just a crypto-price bet?
Partly — volumes track the crypto cycle — but the structural driver is stablecoins becoming a payments rail, which can grow even when token prices are flat.
How does the MoonshotScore evaluate this theme?
It weights revenue growth, margin strength and momentum — favoring profitable network operators over volume-sensitive, cycle-exposed names.
What is the main risk?
Regulation can tighten as easily as it opens, crypto-cycle downturns hit volumes hard, and competition among issuers can compress the economics quickly.
Research sources
- The White House — Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Signs GENIUS Act into Law
- Mayer Brown — GENIUS Act Signed into Law: US Enacts Federal Stablecoin Legislation
- CoinDesk — Stablecoin Market Could Reach $4 Trillion by 2030, Citi Says in Revised Forecast
- Citi GPS — Stablecoins 2030 (Global Perspectives & Solutions: Web3 to Wall Street)
- Visa — Visa Launches Stablecoin Settlement in the United States
- Circle Internet Group (Investor Relations) — Circle Announces Pricing of Upsized Initial Public Offering
- Fortune — Circle IPO leaves $1.72 billion on the table, seventh biggest underpricing in decades
- Coinbase Global / SEC EDGAR — Coinbase Q3 2025 Shareholder Letter (Form 8-K)
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