---
title: "ASML keeps buying back stock after a sharp pullback: what the ASML buyback update shows"
canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/journal/2026-11-09/asml-keeps-buying-back-stock-after-a-sharp-pullback-what-the-asml-buyback-upd-56ab9b69300d
last_updated: 2026-11-10T04:06:21.513Z
section: "AI Signals"
author: "Stock Expert AI Research"
publisher: Stock Expert AI
tickers: ASML
content_type: journal-article
---

# ASML keeps buying back stock after a sharp pullback: what the ASML buyback update shows

_ASML's Nov. 9, 2026 buyback report shows repurchases continuing through a falling week. The stock rose 6.21% that day, and the latest quarter was its strongest free-cash-flow quarter of the past five._

![Data cover: ASML keeps buying back stock after a sharp pullback: what the ASML buyback update shows](/public-objects/streetnews/2026-11-09/AI_SIGNALS-cover-907cd25c.jpg)
Stock Expert AI data cover: figures from Financial Modeling Prep; background is an illustrative public-domain photo, credited on the image.

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) said on Nov. 9, 2026 that it kept repurchasing its own shares through the prior week, when the stock was falling, and the stock rose 6.21% on Nov. 9 to $1,513.25. The buyback matters because the company has the cash to pay for it: free cash flow in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026 was EUR 11.38B.

*Figures are current as of Nov. 9, 2026. Financial results cover the third quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026 and the four quarters before it. Statements are in euros (EUR); share prices, price targets and the earnings-report EPS and revenue line are in US dollars.*

## Key facts

- **Nov. 9, 2026:** ASML published its regular buyback report under EU market-abuse rules. It covers daily purchases from Nov. 2 to Nov. 6, 2026. The release reports prices in euros, and the weighted average price fell over the week.
- **Nov. 9, 2026:** The stock closed at $1,513.25, up 6.21% on the day. The 52-week range is $946.11 to $1,999.96.
- **Oct. 14, 2026:** ASML reported third-quarter EPS of $14.89 against an analyst estimate of $12.47 (a beat of $2.42, or 19.4%). Revenue was $12.97B against an estimate of $13.14B (a miss of $174.9M, or 1.3%).
- **Quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026:** Revenue was EUR 11.66B, up 55.2% from a year earlier. Net income was EUR 4.96B, up 133.5%.
- **Quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026:** The company spent EUR 4.07B on buybacks and EUR 721.3M on dividends.
- **Next earnings date:** Jan. 27, 2027, with an EPS estimate of $16.61 and a revenue estimate of $16.34B.

| Metric | Q3 FY2026 (ended Sept. 30, 2026) | Q3 FY2025 (year-ago) |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | EUR 11.66B | EUR 7.52B |
| Operating income | EUR 5.17B | EUR 2.47B |
| Net income | EUR 4.96B | EUR 2.12B |
| Diluted EPS | EUR 12.93 | EUR 5.48 |

## What happened

A buyback is a company using its own cash to purchase its shares on the open market. That usually shrinks the share count, so each remaining share claims a larger slice of profit. ASML's program was announced earlier this year. Under European rules, the company must publish its trades regularly.

According to the Nov. 9 release, ASML bought shares on each trading day from Nov. 2 to Nov. 6. The weighted average price, meaning the average weighted by how many shares were bought, dropped through the week. The company bought its largest batch of the week on Nov. 5, the day of the lowest average price. The release does not say why ASML bought more on that day, and we will not guess. It simply shows the program continuing while the stock fell.

The stock bounced on Nov. 9, up 6.21%. A 247WallSt headline from that day shows ASML moving in the same direction as Applied Materials and Lam Research, which suggests a peer-wide move in chip-equipment shares. Motley Fool also covered the bounce, but its headline does not state a reason. We could not verify any explanation with our own data.

## Why it matters for investors

**The buyback is funded by a very strong cash quarter.** In the third quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026, operating cash flow was EUR 11.80B and capital spending was EUR 413.3M, leaving free cash flow (cash left after running and maintaining the business) of EUR 11.38B. The company's buybacks that quarter, EUR 4.07B, were larger than in any of the previous four quarters.

Cash flow at ASML is lumpy, though, so one quarter should not be read as a run rate. The quarterly figures swing widely, as the trend shows:

| Quarter | Free cash flow | Buybacks |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2025 | EUR 243.7M | EUR 172.2M |
| Q4 FY2025 | EUR 10.96B | EUR 1.70B |
| Q1 FY2026 | outflow of EUR 2.61B | EUR 1.00B |
| Q2 FY2026 | EUR 1.40B | EUR 1.08B |
| Q3 FY2026 | EUR 11.38B | EUR 4.07B |

ASML's cash swings between very large inflows and small or negative quarters, so the pace of repurchases may track cash timing as well as management's view of the share price.

**Profitability stepped up, not just sales.** Gross margin (the share of revenue left after the direct cost of making and servicing machines) rose each quarter, from 51.6% in the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025 to 57.4% in the latest quarter. Operating margin (profit from operations as a share of revenue) went from 32.8% to 44.4% over the same span. The biggest single-quarter jump came in the latest quarter, when operating margin was 37.1% in the previous one. Revenue rose to EUR 11.66B from EUR 9.33B in the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A rise in sales together with a higher share of each sale kept as profit is why net income grew faster than revenue. The EPS beat versus estimates came despite the slight revenue miss, which points to margins as the surprise.

**The balance sheet is conservative.** As of Sept. 30, 2026, ASML held EUR 12.74B in cash and short-term investments against EUR 1.96B of total debt, a net cash position (FMP shows net debt of EUR -6.07B, meaning cash exceeds debt on its measure). Shareholders' equity was EUR 22.06B. Its Piotroski score is 9 out of 9 and its Altman Z score is 9.75. Both are financial-strength gauges, and higher means healthier.

**Valuation versus peers.** On trailing 12-month earnings, ASML trades at a P/E (price divided by earnings per share) of 38.37. Its price-to-sales is 13.12, price to free cash flow is 24.50, and dividend yield is 0.6%. Peers on the same basis:

| Company | Market cap | P/E | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | $583.23B | 38.37 | 34.1% |
| Applied Materials (AMAT) | $294.07B | 31.75 | 30.1% |
| ASM International (ASMXF) | $36.99B | 32.97 | 26.8% |
| Camtek (CAMT) | $4.90B | 36.47 | 24.6% |
| SCREEN Holdings (DINRF) | $14.17B | 16.06 | 15.3% |

ASML has the highest net margin in this group and also the highest P/E. Investors are paying a premium for its profitability.

**Analyst view.** Of 45 analyst ratings, 1 is strong buy, 25 are buy, 16 are hold and 3 are sell, for a consensus of "Buy." Analysts' price targets average $2,330.75, with a median of $2,300.00, a high of $2,623.00 and a low of $2,100.00. All of those are above the Nov. 9 price of $1,513.25. Targets are opinions, not forecasts we endorse. The most recent rating action in the last 30 days was JP Morgan maintaining its Overweight on Oct. 15, 2026.

**Our MoonshotScore.** Stock Expert AI's MoonshotScore V2 for ASML is 86.2, labeled Exceptional. The pillars, scored against its sector, are: quality 93, growth 82, safety 76, momentum 73 and valuation 34. Quality and growth are the strengths, and valuation is the clear weak spot, which matches the premium P/E above.

## What could go wrong

- **Valuation:** The valuation pillar is low at 34. A stock priced for continued strong results has less room for disappointment. FMP's own discounted cash flow model, an estimate of what future cash flows are worth today, gives a value of $320.62 per share. That is far below the market price. Such models depend heavily on their assumptions, but the gap shows how much future growth the market is pricing in.
- **Volatility:** The 52-week range runs from $946.11 to $1,999.96, and the stock sold off hard before the Nov. 9 bounce. A 6.21% single-day gain can reverse as quickly.
- **Revenue miss:** Revenue came in below the analyst estimate for the quarter, even as EPS beat. Headlines this week also referred to execution risk as AI-driven demand pushes customers to expand capacity. We could not verify that framing with our data.
- **Lumpy cash:** Free cash flow was an outflow of EUR 2.61B in the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Buybacks funded from a single strong quarter may not repeat at the same size.

## What to watch next

- The weekly buyback reports, which show whether ASML keeps buying as the price recovers.
- The fourth-quarter report due Jan. 27, 2027. Analysts expect EPS of $16.61 and revenue of $16.34B.
- Whether gross margin holds near the latest 57.4% level or reverts.
- Free cash flow in the fourth quarter, to see whether the third-quarter surge was timing or a new pattern.
- Analyst estimates for later periods, which are thin. Only 3 analysts cover the periods ending March 30, 2029 (revenue estimate EUR 13.32B, EPS estimate EUR 19.54) and June 30, 2029 (revenue estimate EUR 13.50B, EPS estimate EUR 21.20), so treat those as rough.

## Frequently asked questions

## Q: Is ASML buying back its own stock right now?

Yes. According to ASML's Nov. 9, 2026 release, the company repurchased shares on every trading day from Nov. 2 to Nov. 6, 2026 under a program announced earlier in 2026. In the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026, it spent EUR 4.07B on buybacks.

## Q: Did ASML beat earnings expectations in the third quarter of 2026?

On profit, yes. ASML reported EPS of $14.89 on Oct. 14, 2026 against an estimate of $12.47. Revenue of $12.97B was slightly below the $13.14B estimate. For the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026, revenue was EUR 11.66B and net income was EUR 4.96B, both well above the year-earlier quarter.

## Q: Is ASML expensive compared with other chip equipment stocks?

On trailing 12-month earnings, ASML's P/E of 38.37 is higher than Applied Materials at 31.75, ASM International at 32.97 and Camtek at 36.47, and well above SCREEN Holdings at 16.06. ASML also has the highest net margin of the group at 34.1%. Our MoonshotScore valuation pillar is 34, which is weak relative to its sector. This is information, not a recommendation.

## What our data could not verify

We could not confirm the reasons for the Nov. 9 price move or the company's guidance changes mentioned in headlines. We did not use the share counts or euro prices from the buyback release because they are outside our verified data set. Peer figures use each company's own latest data and may cover different fiscal periods.

**Sources:** Our data: Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) financial statements, quotes, estimates and ratings as of Nov. 9, 2026; Stock Expert AI MoonshotScore V2. Third-party reports: ASML company release via GlobeNewswire (Nov. 9, 2026); headlines from Motley Fool, 247WallSt and Zacks, used for context only.


*This is educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.*

## Related Tickers
- [ASML](https://www.stockexpertai.com/stock/asml)

## Sources
- [Stock Expert AI ASML page: quote, financials and MoonshotScore](https://www.stockexpertai.com/stock/asml)
- [globenewswire.com: ASML reports transactions under its current share buyback program](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/11/09/3398321/0/en/asml-reports-transactions-under-its-current-share-buyback-program.html)
- [fool.com: Why ASML Bounced Back Today](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/09/why-asml-bounced-back-today/)
- [247wallst.com: Applied Materials Jumps 11% Ahead of Earnings; Lam Research Surges 9%, ASML Rises 6%](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/09/applied-materials-jumps-11-ahead-of-earnings-lam-research-surges-9-asml-rises-6/)
- [zacks.com: ASML Raises 2026 Guidance as AI Demand Accelerates Capacity Expansion](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3026543/asml-raises-2026-guidance-as-ai-demand-accelerates-capacity-expansion?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|zer_report_insights-3026543)
- [zacks.com: ASML Falls 20% in the Past Month as AI Growth Meets Execution Risk](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3026536/asml-falls-20-in-the-past-month-as-ai-growth-meets-execution-risk?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog_plus|zer_report_insights-3026536)

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_Written by Stock Expert AI's research desk with AI assistance. Figures come from FMP data and the official sources cited in the article. Educational research, not financial advice._