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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/tr/earnings/nflx
last_updated: 2026-07-19T06:13:39.638Z
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# Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Q1 FY2027 Bilanço Önizleme

> Bu içerik FMP canlı veri + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript ile otomatik üretildi. Üretim: 2026-07-19T06:13:38.532Z. Eğitim aracıdır, yatırım tavsiyesi değildir.

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## Hızlı Özet

| Alan | Değer | Kaynak |
|---|---|---|
| Fiyat | $68.95 (▼ -7.26%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $290.3B | fmp:profile |
| 52w aralık | $65.08 – $126.71 | fmp:quote |
| Bilanço | Sal 20 Ekim | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS beklenti | $0.83 (+%41 YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Gelir beklenti | $12.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat serisi | 3/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $96 (+%39.2 upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 56/100 | derived |
| Council | 4/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived |

## Netflix, Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Beklentileri

Q1 konsensüs: gelir <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$12.9B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$0.83</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 3 çeyrek üst üste beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Skor:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 56

= MoonshotScore <strong>56</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9 pillar formül">[9 pillar formül]</sup> + Council <strong>4/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6 lens kuralı">[6 lens kuralı]</sup>. Form 4: 0 işlem<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## İzleme Listesi (0 metrik)

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## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Kanıt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 5.0 | medium | Q2 vs Q3: sağlıklı büyüme (+%9.1) |
| Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q2: yüksek marj (%51.9) |
| Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op marj çok güçlü (%33.4, scale leverage) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF çok güçlü ($1.4B, CapEx'in 6.3× üstü) |
| R&D Intensity | 5.0 | medium | ortalama R&D (%7.7) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 30.7 momentum zayıf, 50g altı |
| News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | güçlü buy konsensüsü (73%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| İsim | Stance | Bağlam |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +%39.2 |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50g MA altında |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 31 |
| Klarman | bull | value · target upside +%39.2 |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE skor 5/5 |
| Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +%39.2 |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Undervalued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Strong
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Teknik Seviyeler

- **RSI(14):** 30.7 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az
- **50g MA:** $81 — hisse %14.4 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200g MA:** $94 — hisse %26.4 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Hacim (10g):** +%175

## Geçmiş Performans (4 Çeyrek)

| Çeyrek | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Sonuç | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY25 | $0.59 | $0.70 | MISS | -%10.1 |
| Q4 FY25 | $0.56 | $0.55 | BEAT | -%2.2 |
| Q1 FY26 | $1.23 | $0.76 | BEAT | -%9.7 |
| Q2 FY26 | $0.80 | $0.79 | +%1.3 EPS | -%7.3 |

Q2 (16 Temmuz 2026): EPS $0.80 vs $0.79 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +%1.3 beat. D+1 hareketi: -%7.3<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Beat'e rağmen düşüş — piyasa rehbere tepki verdi, rakam değil.

## 3 Senaryo

### Senaryo A · Beat
**Q1 EPS > $0.83 + CapEx disiplini**

Eşik: EPS > $0.83<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Hedef: Median target $96<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup> üstüne kırılma; high target $135<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> üst sınır.

### Senaryo B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $0.83 + CapEx < $218.6M**

Eşik: EPS ≈ $0.83<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q1 CapEx < $218.6M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Hedef: Mevcut $69<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> ile median $96<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup> bandında konsolidasyon.

### Senaryo C · Miss
**EPS < $0.81 veya CapEx ≥ $218.6M**

Eşik: EPS < $0.81<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Hedef: Mevcut $69 SMA200 $94<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup> altında, reddi sürerse $80<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> destek aktive olur.

## Risk Notları

### Ana segment altı eşik
Q2: EPS $0.80 vs $0.79 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, hisse -%7.3 D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog konsantrasyonu
Q2 earnings call'da RPO/backlog konsantrasyonu açıklanmadı.

### İçeriden işlem (insider)
Form 4 verisi tablo'da işaretli — bu hisse için sayfa varsayım üretmez.

| Yönetici | İşlem | Tutar | Tarih |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 işlem · 0 satış · 0 alım) · Q2 FY26

### CapEx şoku
Q2 CapEx $218.6M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q2 op margin %33.4<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — Q1'da bu seviye CapEx revize riskine duyarlı.

## Wall Street Konsensüs

- **Median target:** $96 (+%39.2 upside vs current $69)
- **High / Low:** $135 / $75
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 37 / 14 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 16 (last quarter), 303 all-time

## Ek Transcript Insight'ları

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*Veri kaynağı: FMP (canlı sorgu, 2026-07-19), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Gemini 2.0 Flash ile TR'ye çevrildi). Eğitim aracıdır, yatırım tavsiyesi değildir.*