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last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:49:14.972Z
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# Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Q4 FY2026 财报预览

> **[stale-preview-note]** 注：本预览发布于2026-05-14财报之前。请以最新公告为准。

> 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-03T20:49:14.125Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。

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## 快速摘要

| 字段 | 值 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| 价格 | $389.08 (▼ -1.37%) | fmp:quote |
| 市值 | $308.8B | fmp:profile |
| 52周区间 | $151.51 – $420.50 | fmp:quote |
| 财报 | 周四 14 5月 | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS 预期 | $2.66 (+11% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 营收预期 | $7.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 超预期连胜 | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| 评级 | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| 分析师中位数目标价 | $433 (+11.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 57/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| 芒格结论 | 合理估值 | derived |

## Applied Materials, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 预期

Q4 季度共识：营收 <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$7.7B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>，EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$2.66</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>。连续 8 个季度超出预期<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>。

## 快速概览

**得分：** B+ · **立场：** HOLD · **Council：** 3/6 · **Moonshot：** 57

= MoonshotScore <strong>57</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="MoonshotScore">[MoonshotScore]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="Council">[Council]</sup>。Form 4: 0 笔交易<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>。

## 观察列表 (5个指标)

### 1. Cfe Ebeam Revenue Growth

应用材料预计，今年冷场发射eBeam技术收入将翻一番，超过10亿美元。

> "其中一个例子是我们独特的冷场发射eBeam技术，我们预计该技术今年的收入将翻一番，超过10亿美元，并支持工艺诊断和控制，这是我们在2026年增长最快的业务之一。"
> — Gary Dickerson, President and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Q2 Revenue Guidance

应用材料预计公司收入为76.5亿美元，上下浮动5亿美元，环比增长约9%。

> "我们预计公司收入为76.5亿美元，上下浮动5亿美元，环比增长约9%。"
> — Brice Hill, Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Ags Record Revenue

应用全球服务（AGS）实现了创纪录的15.6亿美元收入，超出预期，同比增长15%。

> "应用全球服务实现了创纪录的15.6亿美元收入，超出我们的预期，同比增长15%。"
> — Brice Hill, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Semi Equipment Growth

应用材料预计其半导体设备业务在2026年日历年将增长超过20%。

> "对于应用材料来说，我们预计今年半导体设备业务将增长超过20%。"
> — Gary Dickerson, President and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Nand Equipment Demand

应用材料预测2026年NAND设备需求将温和增长，并预计NAND将继续占晶圆厂设备支出的不到10%。

> "在NAND方面，我们预测2026年设备需求将温和增长，并预计NAND将继续占晶圆厂设备支出的不到10%。"
> — Gary Dickerson, President and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore 支柱

| 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 营收增长 | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: 负增长 (-%1.2，收缩) |
| 毛利率 | 5.0 | medium | Q1: 平均毛利率 (%49.0) |
| 经营杠杆 | 3.0 | weak | 营业利润率健康 (%29.9) |
| 现金流储备 | 10.0 | strong | FCF 强劲 ($1.0B FCF，覆盖资本支出) |
| 研发投入强度 | 7.0 | strong | 平衡的研发投资 (%12.9) |
| 价格动能 | 7.0 | strong | RSI 52.8 平衡，50日均线 之上 |
| 新闻情绪 | 8.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (76%) |

**公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7视角)

| 名称 | 立场 | 背景 |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +11.2% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | 资金流 · 50日均线 之上 |
| Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 53 |
| Klarman | neutral | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +11.2% |
| Buffett | bull | 质量 · ROE 评分 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +11.2% |

**公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## 芒格视角

- **结论:** 合理估值
- **财务健康:** Moderate
- **安全边际:** Moderate
- **利息覆盖率:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## 技术水平

- **RSI(14):** 52.8 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf
- **50日均线:** $369 — hisse %5.3 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200日均线:** $269 — hisse %44.5 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **成交量 (10日):** -21%

## 历史表现 (4个季度)

| 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $2.39 | $2.31 | BEAT | -5.3% |
| Q3 FY25 | $2.48 | $2.36 | BEAT | -14.1% |
| Q4 FY25 | $2.17 | $2.11 | BEAT | +0.8% |
| Q1 FY26 | $2.38 | $2.21 | +7.7% EPS | +8.1% |

Q1 (2026年2月12日): EPS $2.38 vs 预期 $2.21<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出 +%7.7。D+1 走势：+8.1%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。

## 3种情景

### 情景 A · 超预期
**Q4 EPS > $2.66 + 资本支出纪律**

阈值：EPS > $2.66<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>。

目标：突破中位数目标价 $433<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>；高目标价 $500<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> 为上限。

### 情景 B · 符合预期
**EPS ≈ $2.66 + CapEx < $646.0M**

阈值：EPS ≈ $2.66<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>，Q4 资本支出 < $646.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>。

目标：在当前价 $389<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> 与中位数目标价 $433<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup> 区间内盘整。

### 情景 C · 未达预期
**EPS < $2.58 或 CapEx ≥ $646.0M**

阈值：EPS < $2.58<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>。

目标：当前价 $389 低于 200日均线 $269<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>，若持续拒绝，则激活 $229<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> 支撑位。

## 风险提示

### {{segment}} 低于阈值
Q1 季度：EPS $2.38 vs 预期 $2.21<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出预期，股价 D+1 +8.1%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>。

### 对 OpenAI 的依赖
Q1 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。

### 内幕交易
Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。

| 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 |
|---|---|---|---|


**净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q1 FY26

### 资本支出冲击
Q1 季度资本支出 $646.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>。 Q1 营业利润率 %29.9<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。

## 华尔街共识

- **中位数目标价:** $433 (+11.2% upside vs current $389)
- **高 / 低:** $500 / $290
- **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 29 / 9 / 0
- **分析师数量:** 16 (上一季度), 142 历史总数

## 额外财报电话会议洞察

### 1. semi_equipment_growth

**主张:** Applied Materials expects to grow its semiconductor equipment business more than 20% this calendar year in 2026.

**证据 (会议记录):** "For Applied, we expect to grow our semiconductor equipment business more than 20% this calendar year."

**数据:** %20

### 2. cfe_ebeam_revenue_growth

**主张:** Applied Materials expects cold field emission eBeam technology revenues to double this calendar year to more than $1 billion.

**证据 (会议记录):** "One example of this is our unique cold field emission eBeam technology where we expect revenues to double this calendar year to more than $1 billion and support process diagnostics and control, being one of our fastest-growing businesses in 2026."

**数据:** $1 billion, 2026

### 3. nand_equipment_demand

**主张:** Applied Materials is forecasting modest growth in equipment demand in NAND in 2026 and expects NAND to remain less than 10% of wafer fab equipment spending.

**证据 (会议记录):** "In NAND, we are forecasting modest growth in equipment demand in 2026 and we expect NAND to remain less than 10% of wafer fab equipment spending."

**数据:** 2026, %10

### 4. icaps_equipment_demand

**主张:** Applied Materials expects wafer fab equipment for ICAPS customers who serve the IoT, communications, automotive, power and sensor markets to be approximately flat year-on-year, both globally and in China.

**证据 (会议记录):** "In ICAPS, customers who serve the IoT, communications, automotive, power and sensor markets, we expect wafer fab equipment to be approximately flat year-on-year, both globally and in China."

**数据:** —

### 5. ags_record_revenue

**主张:** Applied Global Services (AGS) delivered record revenue of $1.56 billion, which exceeded expectations and grew 15% year-over-year.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Applied Global Services delivered record revenue of $1.56 billion, which exceeded our expectations and grew 15% year-over-year."

**数据:** $1.56 billion, 15%

### 6. q2_revenue_guidance

**主张:** Applied Materials expects company revenue of $7.65 billion, plus or minus $500 million, which should be up around 9% sequentially.

**证据 (会议记录):** "We expect company revenue of $7.65 billion, plus or minus $500 million, which should be up around 9% sequentially."

**数据:** $7.65 billion, $500 million, 9%


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*数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-03)，Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*