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# Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Q4 FY2026 财报预览

> 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-03T23:21:22.145Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。

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## 快速摘要

| 字段 | 值 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| 价格 | $268.42 (▲ 1.27%) | fmp:quote |
| 市值 | $2.89T | fmp:profile |
| 52周区间 | $183.85 – $273.88 | fmp:quote |
| 财报 | 周四 30 7月 | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS 预期 | $1.82 (+8% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 营收预期 | $194.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 超预期连胜 | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| 评级 | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| 分析师中位数目标价 | $315 (+17.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| 芒格结论 | 合理估值 | derived |

## Amazon.com, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 预期

Q4 季度共识：营收 <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$194.6B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>，EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$1.82</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>。连续 1 个季度超出预期<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>。

## 快速概览

**得分：** B+ · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 3/6 · **Moonshot：** 44

= MoonshotScore <strong>44</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="MoonshotScore">[MoonshotScore]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="Council">[Council]</sup>。Form 4: 0 笔交易<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>。

## 观察列表 (6个指标)

### 1. Aws Growth Acceleration

AWS 增长加速至 28%，为 15 个季度以来的最快增速。

> "从 AWS 开始，增长持续加速，同比增长 28%，为 15 个季度以来的最快增速，环比增长 20 亿美元，为 AWS 营收有史以来最大的 Q4 至 Q1 增长。"
> — Andrew Jassy, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Amazon Ads Growth

Amazon Ads 本季度创造了 172 亿美元的收入，同比增长 22%。

> "我们继续努力成为各种规模的品牌发展业务的最佳场所，并且我们对整个渠道产品持续强劲的增长感到满意，本季度创造了 172 亿美元的收入，同比增长 22%。"
> — Andrew Jassy, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Aws Ai Revenue Run Rate

在人工智能浪潮的最初 3 年里，AWS 的 AI 收入运行率超过 150 亿美元。

> "在人工智能浪潮的最初 3 年里，AWS 的 AI 收入运行率超过 150 亿美元，几乎是原来的 260 倍。"
> — Andrew Jassy, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Stores Unit Growth

销量同比增长 15%，是自 COVID 封锁结束以来我们所见过的最高水平。

> "销量同比增长 15%，是自 COVID 封锁结束以来我们所见过的最高水平。"
> — Andrew Jassy, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Aws Annual Revenue Run Rate

AWS 目前的年化收入为 1500 亿美元。

> "AWS 目前的年化收入为 1500 亿美元。"
> — Andrew Jassy, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 6. Trainium Commitments

目前我们 Trainium 的收入承诺已超过 2250 亿美元。

> "目前我们 Trainium 的收入承诺已超过 2250 亿美元。"
> — Andrew Jassy, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore 支柱

| 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 营收增长 | 4.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: 健康增长 (+%8.2) |
| 毛利率 | 5.0 | medium | Q1: 高毛利率 (%51.8) |
| 经营杠杆 | 1.0 | weak | 营业利润率平均 (%13.1) |
| 现金流储备 | 3.0 | weak | FCF 为负 ($-18.2B，需要外部融资) |
| 研发投入强度 | 5.0 | medium | 高研发强度 (%15.5，积极) |
| 价格动能 | 4.0 | medium | RSI 78.1 超买，50日均线 之上 |
| 新闻情绪 | 9.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (93%) |

**公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7视角)

| 名称 | 立场 | 背景 |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +17.4% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | 资金流 · 50日均线 之上 |
| Jim Simons | bear | 量化 · RSI 78 |
| Klarman | neutral | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +17.4% |
| Buffett | bull | 质量 · ROE 评分 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +17.4% |

**公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## 芒格视角

- **结论:** 合理估值
- **财务健康:** Moderate
- **安全边际:** Moderate
- **利息覆盖率:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## 技术水平

- **RSI(14):** 78.1 — overbought (RSI 78.1) — geri çekilme baskısı
- **50日均线:** $225 — hisse %19.4 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200日均线:** $227 — hisse %18.1 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **成交量 (10日):** -3%

## 历史表现 (4个季度)

| 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $1.68 | $1.31 | BEAT | -8.3% |
| Q3 FY25 | $1.95 | $1.57 | BEAT | +9.6% |
| Q4 FY25 | $1.95 | $1.97 | MISS | -5.6% |
| Q1 FY26 | $2.78 | $1.63 | +70.6% EPS | +0.8% |

Q1 (2026年4月29日): EPS $2.78 vs 预期 $1.63<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出 +%70.6。D+1 走势：+0.8%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。

## 3种情景

### 情景 A · 超预期
**Q4 EPS > $1.82 + 资本支出纪律**

阈值：EPS > $1.82<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>。

目标：突破中位数目标价 $315<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>；高目标价 $333<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> 为上限。

### 情景 B · 符合预期
**EPS ≈ $1.82 + CapEx < $44.2B**

阈值：EPS ≈ $1.82<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>，Q4 资本支出 < $44.2B<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>。

目标：在当前价 $268<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> 与中位数目标价 $315<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup> 区间内盘整。

### 情景 C · 未达预期
**EPS < $1.77 或 CapEx ≥ $44.2B**

阈值：EPS < $1.77<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>。

目标：当前价 $268 低于 200日均线 $227<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>，若持续拒绝，则激活 $193<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> 支撑位。

## 风险提示

### {{segment}} 低于阈值
Q1 季度：EPS $2.78 vs 预期 $1.63<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出预期，股价 D+1 +0.8%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>。 Brian Olsavsky Q1 transcript: "Starting with AWS, growth continued to accelerate, up 28% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters, up $2 billion quarter-over-quarter, the largest Q4 to Q1 AWS revenue increase ever."<sup class="cite" data-source="transcript:q-prev" data-field="transcript.azureQuoteEn" title="Brian Olsavsky">[Brian Olsavsky]</sup>.

### 对 OpenAI 的依赖
Q1 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。

### 内幕交易
Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。

| 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 |
|---|---|---|---|


**净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q1 FY26

### 资本支出冲击
Q1 季度资本支出 $44.2B<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>。 Brian Olsavsky Q1 transcript: "Our cash CapEx was $43.2 billion in Q1. This primarily relates to AWS and generative AI as we invest to support strong customer demand."<sup class="cite" data-source="transcript:q-prev" data-field="transcript.capexQuoteEn" title="Brian Olsavsky transcript">[Brian Olsavsky transcript]</sup>. Q1 营业利润率 %13.1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。

## 华尔街共识

- **中位数目标价:** $315 (+17.4% upside vs current $268)
- **高 / 低:** $333 / $175
- **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 62 / 5 / 0
- **分析师数量:** 40 (上一季度), 335 历史总数

## 额外财报电话会议洞察

### 1. aws_growth_acceleration

**主张:** AWS growth accelerated to 28%, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Starting with AWS, growth continued to accelerate, up 28% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters, up $2 billion quarter-over-quarter, the largest Q4 to Q1 AWS revenue increase ever."

**数据:** 28%, 15, $2 billion

### 2. aws_annual_revenue_run_rate

**主张:** AWS is now a $150 billion annualized revenue run rate business.

**证据 (会议记录):** "AWS is now a $150 billion annualized revenue run rate business."

**数据:** $150 billion

### 3. aws_ai_revenue_run_rate

**主张:** In the first 3 years of this AI wave, AWS' AI revenue run rate is over $15 billion.

**证据 (会议记录):** "In the first 3 years of this AI wave, AWS' AI revenue run rate is over $15 billion, nearly 260x larger."

**数据:** 3, $15 billion, 260

### 4. trainium_commitments

**主张:** And we now have over $225 billion in revenue commitments for Trainium.

**证据 (会议记录):** "And we now have over $225 billion in revenue commitments for Trainium."

**数据:** $225 billion

### 5. stores_unit_growth

**主张:** Units grew 15% year-over-year, the highest we've seen since the tail end of COVID lockdowns.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Units grew 15% year-over-year, the highest we've seen since the tail end of COVID lockdowns."

**数据:** 15%

### 6. amazon_ads_growth

**主张:** Amazon Ads generating $17.2 billion of revenue in the quarter and up 22% year-over-year.

**证据 (会议记录):** "We continue working to be the best place for brands of all sizes to grow their businesses, and we're pleased with the continued strong growth across our full funnel offerings, generating $17.2 billion of revenue in the quarter and up 22% year-over-year."

**数据:** $17.2 billion, 22%


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*数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-03)，Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*