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# AppLovin Corporation (APP) Q4 FY2026 财报预览

> **[stale-preview-note]** 注：本预览发布于2026-05-06财报之前。请以最新公告为准。

> 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q4 FY2025 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-03T21:22:43.155Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。

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## 快速摘要

| 字段 | 值 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| 价格 | $460.00 (▲ 3.06%) | fmp:quote |
| 市值 | $154.7B | fmp:profile |
| 52周区间 | $290.96 – $745.61 | fmp:quote |
| 财报 | 周三 6 5月 | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS 预期 | $3.40 (+104% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 营收预期 | $1.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 超预期连胜 | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| 评级 | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| 分析师中位数目标价 | $675 (+46.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 77/100 | derived |
| Council | 5/6 bullish | derived |
| 芒格结论 | 低估 | derived |

## AppLovin Corporation — Q4 FY2026 预期

Q4 季度共识：营收 <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$1.8B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>，EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$3.40</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>。连续 8 个季度超出预期<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>。

## 快速概览

**得分：** B · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 5/6 · **Moonshot：** 77

= MoonshotScore <strong>77</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="MoonshotScore">[MoonshotScore]</sup> + Council <strong>5/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="Council">[Council]</sup>。Form 4: 0 笔交易<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>。

## 观察列表 (5个指标)

### 1. Q1 2026 Revenue Guidance

AppLovin 预计 2026 年第一季度的收入在 17.45 亿美元至 17.75 亿美元之间，环比增长 5% 至 7%。

> "我们预计收入在 17.45 亿美元至 17.75 亿美元之间，环比增长 5% 至 7%。"
> — Matt Stumpf, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 2. Q1 2026 EBITDA Margin Guidance

AppLovin 预计 2026 年第一季度的调整后 EBITDA 利润率约为 84%。

> "调整后的 EBITDA 预计在 14.65 亿美元至 14.95 亿美元之间，调整后的 EBITDA 利润率约为 84%，随着我们继续扩张，保持一流的盈利能力。"
> — Matt Stumpf, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 3. Share Repurchase Program

AppLovin 全年回购并保留了约 640 万股股票，总计 25.8 亿美元。

> "全年，我们回购并保留了约 640 万股股票，总计 25.8 亿美元，全部由自由现金流提供资金。"
> — Matt Stumpf, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 4. Generative Ai Tools

AppLovin 正在开发生成式 AI 工具，以自动执行广告商的广告创建流程，目前正在与 100 多家客户开展试点计划。

> "我们已经在与 100 多家客户进行的试点项目中，为广告单元的一部分提供了基于生成式 AI 的工具。"
> — Adam Foroughi, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 5. Axon Marketing Investment

AppLovin 计划增加对 AXON 广告平台的营销投资，但并不急于确保这些工具能够赶上机遇。

> "我们看到大约 30 天的 LTV 与 CAC 大致相等。 如果我们看到这种情况大规模出现，我们将扩大规模，但我们并不着急，因为我们希望这些工具能够赶上机遇。"
> — Adam Foroughi, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025


## MoonshotScore 支柱

| 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 营收增长 | 6.0 | medium | Q4 vs Q1: 健康增长 (+%11.7) |
| 毛利率 | 9.0 | strong | Q4: 极高毛利率 (%88.9，软件/云服务级别) |
| 经营杠杆 | 8.0 | strong | 营业利润率非常强劲 (%76.9，规模杠杆) |
| 现金流储备 | 10.0 | strong | FCF 非常强劲 ($1.3B，是资本支出的 45.4 倍以上) |
| 研发投入强度 | 5.0 | medium | 平均研发投入 (%5.0) |
| 价格动能 | 7.0 | strong | RSI 54.1 平衡，50日均线 之上 |
| 新闻情绪 | 9.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (87%) |

**公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7视角)

| 名称 | 立场 | 背景 |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +46.7% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | 资金流 · 50日均线 之上 |
| Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 54 |
| Klarman | bull | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +46.7% |
| Buffett | bull | 质量 · ROE 评分 5/5 |
| Munger | bull | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +46.7% |

**公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## 芒格视角

- **结论:** 低估
- **财务健康:** Moderate
- **安全边际:** Strong
- **利息覆盖率:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## 技术水平

- **RSI(14):** 54.1 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf
- **50日均线:** $439 — hisse %4.7 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200日均线:** $526 — hisse %12.5 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **成交量 (10日):** -23%

## 历史表现 (4个季度)

| 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | $1.67 | $1.44 | BEAT | +11.9% |
| Q2 FY25 | $2.26 | $1.96 | BEAT | +12.0% |
| Q3 FY25 | $2.45 | $2.38 | BEAT | +0.7% |
| Q4 FY25 | $3.24 | $2.95 | +9.8% EPS | -19.7% |

Q4 (2026年2月11日): EPS $3.24 vs 预期 $2.95<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出 +%9.8。D+1 走势：-19.7%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。

## 3种情景

### 情景 A · 超预期
**Q4 EPS > $3.40 + 资本支出纪律**

阈值：EPS > $3.40<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>。

目标：突破中位数目标价 $675<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>；高目标价 $835<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> 为上限。

### 情景 B · 符合预期
**EPS ≈ $3.40 + CapEx < $28.3M**

阈值：EPS ≈ $3.40<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>，Q4 资本支出 < $28.3M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>。

目标：在当前价 $460<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> 与中位数目标价 $675<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup> 区间内盘整。

### 情景 C · 未达预期
**EPS < $3.30 或 CapEx ≥ $28.3M**

阈值：EPS < $3.30<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>。

目标：当前价 $460 低于 200日均线 $526<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>，若持续拒绝，则激活 $447<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> 支撑位。

## 风险提示

### {{segment}} 低于阈值
Q4 季度：EPS $3.24 vs 预期 $2.95<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出预期，股价 D+1 -19.7%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>。

### 对 OpenAI 的依赖
Q4 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。

### 内幕交易
Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。

| 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 |
|---|---|---|---|


**净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q4 FY25

### 资本支出冲击
Q4 季度资本支出 $28.3M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>。 Q4 营业利润率 %76.9<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。

## 华尔街共识

- **中位数目标价:** $675 (+46.7% upside vs current $460)
- **高 / 低:** $835 / $340
- **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 26 / 4 / 0
- **分析师数量:** 15 (上一季度), 84 历史总数

## 额外财报电话会议洞察

### 1. q1_2026_revenue_guidance

**主张:** AppLovin expects revenue between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion for the first quarter of 2026, representing 5% to 7% sequential growth.

**证据 (会议记录):** "We expect revenue between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion, representing 5% to 7% sequential growth."

**数据:** $1.745 billion, $1.775 billion, 5%, 7%

### 2. q1_2026_EBITDA_margin_guidance

**主张:** AppLovin expects an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 84% for the first quarter of 2026.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1.465 billion and $1.495 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 84%, maintaining best-in-class profitability as we continue to scale."

**数据:** 84%

### 3. share_repurchase_program

**主张:** For the full year, AppLovin repurchased and withheld approximately 6.4 million shares for a total of $2.58 billion.

**证据 (会议记录):** "For the full year, we repurchased and withheld approximately 6.4 million shares for a total of $2.58 billion, funded entirely by free cash flow."

**数据:** 6.4 million, $2.58 billion

### 4. axon_marketing_investment

**主张:** AppLovin plans to increase marketing investments for the AXON advertising platform but is not rushing to ensure the tools catch up to the opportunity.

**证据 (会议记录):** "We're seeing 30-day LTV to CAC roughly. If we see that at scale, we're going to scale, but we're not in a rush because we want the tools to catch up to the opportunity."

**数据:** 30-day

### 5. generative_ai_tools

**主张:** AppLovin is developing generative AI tools to automate the ad creation process for advertisers and is currently running a pilot program with over 100 customers.

**证据 (会议记录):** "We already have in a pilot with over 100 customers, generative AI-based tools for one part of the ad unit."

**数据:** 100

### 6. max_auction_growth

**主张:** AppLovin notes that the MAX market is growing rapidly, proving it is not a zero-sum market, with other players also growing quickly.

**证据 (会议记录):** "When you've got all these market players growing quickly, that MAX market is growing in a way that people I don't think understood or would have expected, and we're not seeing any slowdowns there."

**数据:** —


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*数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-03)，Q4 FY2025 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*