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# Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Q1 FY2027 财报预览

> **[stale-preview-note]** 注：本预览发布于2026-08-04财报之前。请以最新公告为准。

> 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-03T21:30:51.488Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。

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## 快速摘要

| 字段 | 值 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| 价格 | $169.63 (▲ 0.75%) | fmp:quote |
| 市值 | $131.4B | fmp:profile |
| 52周区间 | $150.62 – $233.58 | fmp:quote |
| 财报 | 周二 4 8月 | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS 预期 | $2.47 (+346% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 营收预期 | $7.2B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 超预期连胜 | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| 评级 | B- (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| 分析师中位数目标价 | $225 (+32.6% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 53/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| 芒格结论 | 低估 | derived |

## Booking Holdings Inc. — Q1 FY2027 预期

Q1 季度共识：营收 <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$7.2B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>，EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$2.47</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>。连续 1 个季度超出预期<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>。

## 快速概览

**得分：** B- · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 3/6 · **Moonshot：** 53

= MoonshotScore <strong>53</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="MoonshotScore">[MoonshotScore]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="Council">[Council]</sup>。Form 4: 0 笔交易<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>。

## 观察列表 (6个指标)

### 1. Q2 Room Night Growth Guidance

该公司预计第二季度客房夜数增长将在 2% 到 4% 之间。

> "我们目前预计第二季度客房夜数增长将在 2% 到 4% 之间，总预订量、收入和调整后的 EBITDA 将分别增长 4% 到 6% 之间。"
> — Ewout Steenbergen, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Room Night Growth Impact

中东冲突对客房夜数增长产生了大约 2 个百分点的负面影响。

> "我们估计，中东冲突使我们的客房夜数和总预订量增长下降了大约 2 个百分点，其中既包括该地区直接受影响的国家/地区，也包括旅行受到冲突影响的预订者。"
> — Glenn Fogel, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Connected Trip Growth

互联行程交易额增长了 10% 以上，占 Booking.com 总交易额的百分比略高于 10%。

> "在第一季度，互联行程交易额（即包括跨多个垂直领域的预订的行程）增长了 10% 以上，占 Booking.com 总交易额的百分比略高于 10%。"
> — Glenn Fogel, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Us Room Night Growth

在美国国内需求强劲的推动下，美国客房夜数增长连续第四个季度加速至十几岁的低位。

> "由于我们持续有条不紊地执行，我很高兴地报告，在美国国内需求强劲的推动下，美国客房夜数增长连续第四个季度加速至十几岁的低位。"
> — Glenn Fogel, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Share Repurchase

该公司在第一季度完成了创纪录的 36 亿美元的股票回购。

> "我们对这些举措和未来增长前景的信心反映在我们十多年来一直采用的资本配置策略中，包括我们在第一季度完成的创纪录的 36 亿美元的股票回购。"
> — Glenn Fogel, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 6. Asia Growth Opportunity

亚洲仍然是全球旅游业中最引人注目的结构性增长机会之一。

> "在亚洲，我们仍然看到全球旅游业中最引人注目的结构性增长机会之一。"
> — Glenn Fogel, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore 支柱

| 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 营收增长 | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: 负增长 (-%18.6，收缩) |
| 毛利率 | 10.0 | strong | Q1: 极高毛利率 (%100.0，软件/云服务级别) |
| 经营杠杆 | 2.0 | weak | 营业利润率健康 (%23.0) |
| 现金流储备 | 10.0 | strong | FCF 非常强劲 ($3.1B，是资本支出的 29.0 倍以上) |
| 研发投入强度 | 3.0 | weak | 低研发投资 (%0.0，创新薄弱) |
| 价格动能 | 4.0 | medium | RSI 42.3 动能疲弱，50日均线 之下 |
| 新闻情绪 | 8.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (82%) |

**公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7视角)

| 名称 | 立场 | 背景 |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +32.6% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | 资金流 · 50日均线 之下 |
| Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 42 |
| Klarman | bull | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +32.6% |
| Buffett | neutral | 质量 · ROE 评分 1/5 |
| Munger | bull | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +32.6% |

**公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## 芒格视角

- **结论:** 低估
- **财务健康:** Moderate
- **安全边际:** Strong
- **利息覆盖率:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight

**公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## 技术水平

- **RSI(14):** 42.3 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az
- **50日均线:** $174 — hisse %2.4 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200日均线:** $200 — hisse %15.4 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **成交量 (10日):** -27%

## 历史表现 (4个季度)

| 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $0.55 | $0.50 | BEAT | +0.4% |
| Q3 FY25 | $0.99 | $0.96 | BEAT | -0.9% |
| Q4 FY25 | $1.95 | $1.95 | MISS | -6.1% |
| Q1 FY26 | $1.14 | $1.08 | +5.6% EPS | +0.3% |

Q1 (2026年4月28日): EPS $1.14 vs 预期 $1.08<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出 +%5.6。D+1 走势：+0.3%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。

## 3种情景

### 情景 A · 超预期
**Q1 EPS > $2.47 + 资本支出纪律**

阈值：EPS > $2.47<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>。

目标：突破中位数目标价 $225<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>；高目标价 $309.84<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> 为上限。

### 情景 B · 符合预期
**EPS ≈ $2.47 + CapEx < $107.0M**

阈值：EPS ≈ $2.47<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>，Q1 资本支出 < $107.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>。

目标：在当前价 $170<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> 与中位数目标价 $225<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup> 区间内盘整。

### 情景 C · 未达预期
**EPS < $2.40 或 CapEx ≥ $107.0M**

阈值：EPS < $2.40<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>。

目标：当前价 $170<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> 低于 200日均线 $200<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>，若持续拒绝，则激活 $170 支撑位。

## 风险提示

### {{segment}} 低于阈值
Q1 季度：EPS $1.14 vs 预期 $1.08<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出预期，股价 D+1 +0.3%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>。

### 对 OpenAI 的依赖
Q1 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。

### 内幕交易
Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。

| 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 |
|---|---|---|---|


**净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q1 FY26

### 资本支出冲击
Q1 季度资本支出 $107.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>。 Q1 营业利润率 %23.0<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — Q1 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。

## 华尔街共识

- **中位数目标价:** $225 (+32.6% upside vs current $170)
- **高 / 低:** $309.84 / $175
- **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 31 / 7 / 0
- **分析师数量:** 25 (上一季度), 125 历史总数

## 额外财报电话会议洞察

### 1. room_night_growth_impact

**主张:** The conflict in the Middle East impacted room night growth by approximately 2 percentage points.

**证据 (会议记录):** "We estimate that the Middle East conflict impacted our room night and gross bookings growth by approximately 2 percentage points, accounting for directly impacted countries in the region as well as bookers whose travel was affected by the conflict."

**数据:** 2

### 2. share_repurchase

**主张:** The company completed a record $3.6 billion in share repurchases in the first quarter.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Our confidence in these initiatives and our future growth profile is reflected in a capital allocation strategy that we've employed for well over a decade, including the record $3.6 billion in share repurchases we completed in the first quarter."

**数据:** 3.6

### 3. us_room_night_growth

**主张:** U.S. room night growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter to the low teens, driven primarily by strong domestic demand.

**证据 (会议记录):** "As a result of our continued disciplined execution, I am pleased to report that our U.S. room night growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter to the low teens, driven primarily by strong domestic demand."

**数据:** —

### 4. asia_growth_opportunity

**主张:** Asia continues to see one of the most compelling structural growth opportunities in the global travel industry.

**证据 (会议记录):** "In Asia, we continue to see one of the most compelling structural growth opportunities in the global travel industry."

**数据:** —

### 5. connected_trip_growth

**主张:** Connected Trip transactions increased in the high teens range and represented a low double-digit percentage of Booking.com's total transactions.

**证据 (会议记录):** "In the first quarter, connected transactions, meaning trips that included bookings across more than one vertical grew in the high teens range and represented a low double-digit percentage of Booking.com's total transactions."

**数据:** —

### 6. q2_room_night_growth_guidance

**主张:** The company expects second quarter room night growth to be between 2% and 4%.

**证据 (会议记录):** "We currently expect second quarter room night growth to be between 2% and 4% and for gross bookings, revenue and adjusted EBITDA to each grow between 4% and 6%."

**数据:** 2, 4, 4, 6


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*数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-03)，Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*