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# BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) Q4 FY2026 财报预览

> 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-03T21:15:08.416Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。

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## 快速摘要

| 字段 | 值 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| 价格 | $1061.68 (▼ -0.37%) | fmp:quote |
| 市值 | $164.9B | fmp:profile |
| 52周区间 | $906.57 – $1219.94 | fmp:quote |
| 财报 | 周二 21 7月 | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS 预期 | $12.53 (+4% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 营收预期 | $6.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 超预期连胜 | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| 评级 | C- (overall 1/5) | fmp:ratings |
| 分析师中位数目标价 | $1350 (+27.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 70/100 | derived |
| Council | 4/6 bullish | derived |
| 芒格结论 | 低估 | derived |

## BlackRock, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 预期

Q4 季度共识：营收 <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$6.7B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>，EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$12.53</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>。连续 8 个季度超出预期<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>。

## 快速概览

**得分：** C- · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 4/6 · **Moonshot：** 70

= MoonshotScore <strong>70</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="MoonshotScore">[MoonshotScore]</sup> + Council <strong>4/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="Council">[Council]</sup>。Form 4: 0 笔交易<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>。

## 观察列表 (4个指标)

### 1. Organic Base Fee Growth

BlackRock, Inc. 本季度实现了 8% 的有机基本费用增长，过去 12 个月实现了 10% 的增长。

> "本季度我们的有机基本费用增长率为 8%，过去 12 个月为 10%。"
> — Martin S. Small, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Wealth Channel Growth

BlackRock, Inc. 的财富平台管理着超过 1 万亿美元的资产，并与美国、欧洲和亚洲的私人银行建立了牢固的关系。

> "BlackRock, Inc. 的财富平台管理着超过 1 万亿美元的资产，并通过成千上万的金融顾问进行全球分销。它提供无缝集成的公共和私人市场解决方案、模型投资组合和实践管理功能。"
> — Laurence D. Fink, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Private Markets Momentum

BlackRock, Inc. 在私募市场继续看到强劲的势头，这得益于投资业绩和客户关系的支持，其中私募信贷和基础设施带动了总计 90 亿美元的净流入。

> "在私募市场中，我们继续看到强劲的势头，这得益于投资业绩、差异化的交易流和我们广泛的客户关系。我们看到私募信贷和基础设施带动了总计 90 亿美元的净流入，这主要是由于部署活动推动的。"
> — Martin S. Small, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Etf Net Inflows

BlackRock, Inc. 的 ETF 实现了创纪录的第一季度净流入，达 1320 亿美元，其中以指数债券 ETF 为首。

> "创纪录的第一季度 ETF 净流入为 1320 亿美元，其中以指数债券 ETF 为首，净流入为 410 亿美元。"
> — Martin S. Small, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore 支柱

| 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 营收增长 | 10.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: 快速增长 (+%24.8) |
| 毛利率 | 8.0 | strong | Q1: 极高毛利率 (%81.4，软件/云服务级别) |
| 经营杠杆 | 3.0 | weak | 营业利润率非常强劲 (%34.5，规模杠杆) |
| 现金流储备 | 10.0 | strong | FCF 非常强劲 ($2.2B，是资本支出的 16.8 倍以上) |
| 研发投入强度 | 3.0 | weak | 低研发投资 (%0.0，创新薄弱) |
| 价格动能 | 7.0 | strong | RSI 59.5 动能积极，50日均线 之上 |
| 新闻情绪 | 8.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (83%) |

**公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7视角)

| 名称 | 立场 | 背景 |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +27.2% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | 资金流 · 50日均线 之上 |
| Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 59 |
| Klarman | bull | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +27.2% |
| Buffett | neutral | 质量 · ROE 评分 1/5 |
| Munger | bull | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +27.2% |

**公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## 芒格视角

- **结论:** 低估
- **财务健康:** Weak
- **安全边际:** Strong
- **利息覆盖率:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight

**公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## 技术水平

- **RSI(14):** 59.5 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50日均线:** $1010 — hisse %5.1 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200日均线:** $1082 — hisse %1.9 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **成交量 (10日):** -9%

## 历史表现 (4个季度)

| 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $12.05 | $10.78 | BEAT | +3.4% |
| Q3 FY25 | $11.55 | $11.36 | BEAT | +0.7% |
| Q4 FY25 | $13.16 | $12.24 | BEAT | +0.6% |
| Q1 FY26 | $12.53 | $11.65 | +7.6% EPS | -0.6% |

Q1 (2026年4月14日): EPS $12.53 vs 预期 $11.65<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出 +%7.6。D+1 走势：-0.6%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。

## 3种情景

### 情景 A · 超预期
**Q4 EPS > $12.53 + 资本支出纪律**

阈值：EPS > $12.53<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>。

目标：突破中位数目标价 $1350<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>；高目标价 $1393<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> 为上限。

### 情景 B · 符合预期
**EPS ≈ $12.53 + CapEx < $130.0M**

阈值：EPS ≈ $12.53<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>，Q4 资本支出 < $130.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>。

目标：在当前价 $1062<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> 与中位数目标价 $1350<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup> 区间内盘整。

### 情景 C · 未达预期
**EPS < $12.15 或 CapEx ≥ $130.0M**

阈值：EPS < $12.15<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>。

目标：当前价 $1062 低于 200日均线 $1082<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>，若持续拒绝，则激活 $920<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> 支撑位。

## 风险提示

### {{segment}} 低于阈值
Q1 季度：EPS $12.53 vs 预期 $11.65<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出预期，股价 D+1 -0.6%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>。

### 对 OpenAI 的依赖
Q1 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。

### 内幕交易
Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。

| 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 |
|---|---|---|---|


**净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q1 FY26

### 资本支出冲击
Q1 季度资本支出 $130.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>。 Q1 营业利润率 %34.5<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。

## 华尔街共识

- **中位数目标价:** $1350 (+27.2% upside vs current $1062)
- **高 / 低:** $1393 / $1200
- **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 15 / 3 / 0
- **分析师数量:** 4 (上一季度), 73 历史总数

## 额外财报电话会议洞察

### 1. organic_base_fee_growth

**主张:** BlackRock, Inc. achieved 8% organic base fee growth in the quarter and 10% over the last twelve months.

**证据 (会议记录):** "We generated 8% organic base fee growth in the quarter and 10% over the last twelve months."

**数据:** 8%, 10%

### 2. etf_net_inflows

**主张:** BlackRock, Inc.’s ETFs saw record first-quarter net inflows of $132 billion, led by index bond ETFs.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Record first-quarter ETF net inflows of $132 billion were led by index bond ETFs with $41 billion of net inflows."

**数据:** $132 billion, $41 billion

### 3. private_markets_momentum

**主张:** BlackRock, Inc. continues to see strong momentum in private markets supported by investment performance and client relationships, seeing an aggregate $9 billion of net inflows led by private credit and infrastructure.

**证据 (会议记录):** "In private markets, we continue to see strong momentum supported by investment performance, differentiated deal flow, and the breadth of our client relationships. We saw an aggregate $9 billion of net inflows led by private credit and infrastructure and primarily driven by deployment activity."

**数据:** $9 billion

### 4. wealth_channel_growth

**主张:** BlackRock, Inc.’s wealth platform spans over $1 trillion in AUM, with strong relationships with private banks across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.

**证据 (会议记录):** "BlackRock, Inc.’s wealth platform spans over $1 trillion in AUM, with global distribution across tens of thousands of financial advisers. It delivers seamlessly integrated public and private market solutions, model portfolios, and practice management capabilities."

**数据:** $1 trillion

### 5. private_credit_aladdin

**主张:** BlackRock, Inc. is positioning Aladdin to be the language of private credit portfolios for transparency and risk analytics and believes that the combination of Preqin and eFront data represents the broadest universal available in the markets.

**证据 (会议记录):** "We are positioning BlackRock, Inc. and Aladdin to be the language of private credit portfolios for transparency and risk analytics. We believe that the combination of Preqin and eFront data represents the broadest universal available in the markets."

**数据:** —


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*数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-03)，Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*