--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/zh/earnings/cop last_updated: 2026-08-10T06:18:16.137Z --- # ConocoPhillips (COP) Q2 FY2027 财报预览 > 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-08-10T06:18:14.815Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。 --- ## 快速摘要 | 字段 | 值 | 来源 | |---|---|---| | 价格 | $117.61 (▲ 0.73%) | fmp:quote | | 市值 | $143.3B | fmp:profile | | 52周区间 | $85.57 – $135.87 | fmp:quote | | 财报 | 周四 5 11月 | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS 预期 | $2.36 (+47% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 营收预期 | $17.2B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 超预期连胜 | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | 评级 | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | 分析师中位数目标价 | $146 (+23.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 69/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | 芒格结论 | 合理估值 | derived | ## ConocoPhillips — Q2 FY2027 预期 Q2 季度共识：营收 $17.2B^{[FMP est]}，EPS $2.36^{[FMP est]}。连续 2 个季度超出预期^{[FMP earnings]}。 ## 快速概览 **得分：** A- · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 3/6 · **Moonshot：** 69 = MoonshotScore 69^{[MoonshotScore]} + Council 3/6^[Council]。Form 4: 0 笔交易^{[FMP Form 4]}。 ## 观察列表 (5个指标) ### 1. Fy Q3 Guidance 康菲石油维持了全年指导，并预计第三季度产量将在每天229万至232万桶油当量之间，这得益于卡塔尔的产量提升和Lower 48地区的持续增长。 > "我们的全年指导项目保持不变，我们仍按计划执行。在分配方面，我们今年继续目标将45%的CFO返还给股东。第三季度的产量指导范围是每天229万至232万桶油当量。这一比第二季度有所改善，是由卡塔尔的产量提升和Lower 48地区的持续增长推动的。" > — Andrew O'Brien, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Capex Fcf Inflection Willow项目的资本支出高峰已过，公司预计随着Willow在2029年投入运营，资本支出将下降，从而实现70亿美元的自由现金流拐点。 > "Willow的资本支出高峰已过。所以您问题的第一部分是，我们已经过了Willow的高峰期。然后您问题的第二部分是，我们绝对预计我们的资本支出将从现在开始下降。特别是随着Willow在2029年初投入运营。所以简短的回答是肯定的。资本支出会下降。我们仍然坚定不移地致力于在2029年前实现70亿美元的自由现金流拐点。" > — Andrew O'Brien, CFO / Ryan Lance, CEO, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Qatar Alaska Outlook 尽管卡塔尔的拉斯拉凡设施在第二季度大部分时间关闭，但预计第三季度将恢复生产，而阿拉斯加的勘探计划正在为未来几十年利用Willow基础设施奠定基础。 > "正如您在第二季度所看到的，拉斯拉凡基本上处于关闭状态，尽管我们确实看到该业务的产量非常有限。这正如您所预期的，是本季度初发生的减产所致。自然地，需要支持该国的本地需求和消费。他们通过我们的列车确实实现了一部分。我们的指导确实假设本季度产量将有所提升。这次租赁销售以及我们已经并将继续执行的多年勘探计划，为我们未来几十年继续利用Willow及其正在建设的基础设施奠定了基础。" > — Kirk L. Johnson, Executive Vice President of Global Operations and technical functions, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Portfolio Optimization Lng Expansion 公司提前实现了50亿美元的资产处置目标，将其商业液化天然气承购组合扩大到每年1200万吨，并在伊拉克和叙利亚获得了新的低成本增长机会。 > "首先，我们提前实现了50亿美元的资产处置目标。7月份出售了17亿美元的非核心Lower 48资产。其次，我们最近签署了两份液化天然气承购协议，每份每年100万吨。这些新增使我们的总承购量达到每年1200万吨。第三，我们签署了在伊拉克和叙利亚的低成本供应增长机会的战略协议。" > — Andrew O'Brien, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Q2 Performance Shareholder Returns 康菲石油在第二季度表现出强劲的财务业绩，产量超出预期，二叠纪盆地产量创历史新高，并向股东分配了30亿美元。 > "康菲石油在第二季度取得了强劲的业绩。产量超出了我们指导范围的上限，我们在二叠纪盆地的领先地位创下了每日超过90万桶油当量的新纪录。我们产生了超过40亿美元的自由现金流，并将股东分配增加到30亿美元，使我们的股票回购比上一季度翻了一番。" > — Ryan Lance, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore 支柱 | 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 | |---|---|---|---| | 营收增长 | 10.0 | strong | Q2 vs Q3: 快速增长 (+%20.8) | | 毛利率 | 10.0 | strong | Q2: 极高毛利率 (%100.0，软件/云服务级别) | | 经营杠杆 | 3.0 | weak | 营业利润率非常强劲 (%33.6，规模杠杆) | | 现金流储备 | 8.0 | strong | FCF 为正但被吞噬 ($5.8B 对比 $6.0B CapEx) | | 研发投入强度 | 3.0 | weak | 低研发投资 (%0.0，创新薄弱) | | 价格动能 | 7.0 | strong | RSI 54.6 平衡，50日均线之上 | | 新闻情绪 | 7.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (72%) | **公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7视角) | 名称 | 立场 | 背景 | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +23.7% | | Ken Griffin | bull | 资金流 · 50日均线之上 | | Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 55 | | Klarman | neutral | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +23.7% | | Buffett | bull | 质量 · ROE 评分 4/5 | | Munger | neutral | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +23.7% | **公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## 芒格视角 - **结论:** 合理估值 - **财务健康:** Strong - **安全边际:** Moderate - **利息覆盖率:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## 技术水平 - **RSI(14):** 54.6 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50日均线:** $113 — hisse %3.7 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200日均线:** $108 — hisse %8.4 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **成交量 (10日):** +10% ## 历史表现 (4个季度) | 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 FY25 | $1.61 | $1.41 | BEAT | +1.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.02 | $1.07 | MISS | +2.5% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.89 | $1.72 | BEAT | -2.1% | | Q2 FY26 | $3.24 | $2.90 | +11.7% EPS | +0.7% | Q2 (2026年8月6日): EPS $3.24 vs 预期 $2.90^[FMP]，超出 +%11.7。D+1 走势：+0.7%^{[FMP D+1]}。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。 ## 3种情景 ### 情景 A · 超预期 **Q2 EPS > $2.36 + 资本支出纪律** 阈值：EPS > $2.36^{[FMP est]}。目标：突破中位数目标价 $146^{[FMP target]}；高目标价 $189^[FMP] 为上限。 ### 情景 B · 符合预期 **EPS ≈ $2.36 + CapEx < $6.0B** 阈值：EPS ≈ $2.36^{[FMP est]}，Q2 资本支出 < $6.0B^[FMP]。目标：在当前价 $118^[FMP] 与中位数目标价 $146^[FMP] 区间内盘整。 ### 情景 C · 未达预期 **EPS < $2.29 或 CapEx ≥ $6.0B** 阈值：EPS < $2.29^{[FMP est×0.97]}。目标：当前价 $118 低于 200日均线 $108^[FMP]，若持续拒绝，则激活 $92^[derived] 支撑位。 ## 风险提示 ### {{segment}} 低于阈值 Q2 季度：EPS $3.24 vs 预期 $2.90^[FMP]，超出预期，股价 D+1 +0.7%^[FMP]。 ### 对 OpenAI 的依赖 Q2 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。 ### 内幕交易 Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。 | 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 | |---|---|---|---| **净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q2 FY26 ### 资本支出冲击 Q2 季度资本支出 $6.0B^{[FMP cashflow]}。 Connie Haines Welsh Q2 transcript: "Peak CapEx of Willow is behind us. So we so the first part of your answer is we passed the peak of Willow. And then the second part of your answer we absolutely expect our CapEx to move lower from here. Particularly as Willow comes online early in 2029."^{[Connie Haines Welsh transcript]}. Q2 营业利润率 %33.6^{[FMP op margin]} — Q2 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。 ## 华尔街共识 - **中位数目标价:** $146 (+23.7% upside vs current $118) - **高 / 低:** $189 / $128 - **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 18 / 7 / 0 - **分析师数量:** 11 (上一季度), 109 历史总数 ## 额外财报电话会议洞察 ### 1. q2_performance_shareholder_returns **主张:** ConocoPhillips delivered strong financial performance in Q2 with production above guidance, record Permian output, and increased shareholder distributions to $3 billion. **证据 (会议记录):** "ConocoPhillips delivered strong second quarter results Production was above the high end of our guidance range with our peer leading Permian position achieving a new record of over 900 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. We generated over $4 billion of free cash flow, and we increased shareholder distributions to 3 billion doubling our share repurchases from the prior quarter." **数据:** 900 thousand, $4 billion, 3 billion ### 2. portfolio_optimization_lng_expansion **主张:** The company achieved its $5 billion disposition target ahead of schedule, expanded its commercial LNG offtake portfolio to 12 million tonnes per annum, and secured new low-cost growth opportunities in Iraq and Syria. **证据 (会议记录):** "First, we achieved our $5 billion disposition target ahead of schedule. With $1.7 billion of non core lower 48 asset sales in July. Second, we recently signed 2 LNG offtake agreements each for 1 million tonnes per annum. These additions bring our total offtake to 12 million tonnes per annum. And third, we signed strategic agreements for low cost supply growth opportunities in Iraq and Syria." **数据:** $5 billion, $1.7 billion, 2, 1 million, 12 million ### 3. fy_q3_guidance **主张:** ConocoPhillips maintained its full-year guidance and expects Q3 production to be in the range of 2.290 to 2.320 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by a ramp in Qatar and continued Lower 48 growth. **证据 (会议记录):** "Our full year guidance items are unchanged, We remain on track to deliver our plan. For distributions, we continue to target returning 45% of our CFO to shareholders this year. The third quarter production our guidance range is 2.290 to 2.320 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This improvement from the second quarter is driven by a production ramp in Qatar, and continued Lower 48 growth." **数据:** 45%, 2.290, 2.320 ### 4. capex_fcf_inflection **主张:** The peak CapEx for the Willow project is behind, and the company expects CapEx to move lower as Willow comes online in 2029, leading to a $7 billion free cash flow inflection. **证据 (会议记录):** "Peak CapEx of Willow is behind us. So we so the first part of your answer is we passed the peak of Willow. And then the second part of your answer we absolutely expect our CapEx to move lower from here. Particularly as Willow comes online early in 2029. So the short answer is yes. CapEx comes down. We remain firmly on track to deliver our $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029." **数据:** 2029, $7 billion ### 5. qatar_alaska_outlook **主张:** While Qatar's Ras Laffan facilities were largely shut in Q2, a ramp-up is expected in Q3, and the Alaska exploration program is laying the groundwork to leverage Willow infrastructure for decades. **证据 (会议记录):** "As you saw in the second quarter, Ras Laffan was largely shut in, although we did see some pretty limited volumes coming out of that business. And that was as you would expect, you know, it is a function of the ramp down that took place early in the quarter. Naturally, there is a need to support local demand and consumption there in country. And they were able to achieve some of that certainly through our train. our guidance does assume a ramp, across the quarter. This lease sale as well as our multiyear exploration program that we have been and will continue to execute lays the groundwork for us to continue to leverage Willow and that infrastructure we are building there for decades into the future." **数据:** 2027, 2029, 20 thirties --- *数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-08-10)，Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*