--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/zh/earnings/cost last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:39:30.860Z --- # Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Q4 FY2026 财报预览 > 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-03T20:39:30.013Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。 --- ## 快速摘要 | 字段 | 值 | 来源 | |---|---|---| | 价格 | $1011.70 (▼ -0.28%) | fmp:quote | | 市值 | $448.8B | fmp:profile | | 52周区间 | $844.06 – $1067.08 | fmp:quote | | 财报 | 周三 29 7月 | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS 预期 | $4.95 (+16% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 营收预期 | $68.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 超预期连胜 | 4/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | 评级 | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | 分析师中位数目标价 | $1100 (+8.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | 芒格结论 | 合理估值 | derived | ## Costco Wholesale Corporation — Q4 FY2026 预期 Q4 季度共识：营收 $68.7B^{[FMP est]}，EPS $4.95^{[FMP est]}。连续 4 个季度超出预期^{[FMP earnings]}。 ## 快速概览 **得分：** B · **立场：** HOLD · **Council：** 3/6 · **Moonshot：** 44 = MoonshotScore 44^{[MoonshotScore]} + Council 3/6^[Council]。Form 4: 0 笔交易^{[FMP Form 4]}。 ## 观察列表 (5个指标) ### 1. Membership Growth COST本季度末共有8210万付费会员，同比增长4.8%，持卡人数为1.472亿，同比增长4.7%。 > "本季度末，我们的付费会员总数为8210万，同比增长4.8%，持卡人数为1.472亿，同比增长4.7%。" > — Gary Millerchip, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Digital Sales Growth COST的数字化销售额中，个性化产品推荐轮播在本季度推动了超过4.7亿美元的电子商务销售额。 > "第二季度，我们的个性化产品推荐轮播带来了超过4.7亿美元的电子商务销售额，我们新近现代化的产品展示页面正在推动我们网站的增量销售，并增加了我们当日达网站的流量。" > — Gary Millerchip, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Membership Renewal Rates COST在美国和加拿大的续订率为92.1%，较上季度下降10个基点；全球续订率为89.7%，与上季度持平。 > "就续订率而言，第二季度末，我们在美国和加拿大的续订率为92.1%，较上季度下降10个基点；全球续订率为89.7%，与上季度持平。" > — Gary Millerchip, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Kirkland Signature Value COST指出，与同等或更高质量的全国品牌替代品相比，Kirkland Signature (KS) 商品通常提供15%至20%的价值。 > "Kirkland Signature仍然是为我们的会员提供巨大价值的首要重点，KS商品通常比同等或更高质量的全国品牌替代品提供15%到20%的价值。" > — Gary Millerchip, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. New Warehouse Openings COST预计26财年将新增28家门店，并计划在未来几年每年新增30多家门店。 > "我们目前预计26财年将新增28家门店，并计划在未来几年每年新增30多家门店。" > — Ron Vachris, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore 支柱 | 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 | |---|---|---|---| | 营收增长 | 5.0 | medium | Q2 vs Q3: 健康增长 (+%10.1) | | 毛利率 | 1.0 | weak | Q2: 低毛利率 (%12.8，资本密集型或大宗商品) | | 经营杠杆 | 0.0 | weak | 营业利润率疲弱 (%3.7，承压) | | 现金流储备 | 9.0 | strong | FCF 强劲 ($1.7B FCF，覆盖资本支出) | | 研发投入强度 | 3.0 | weak | 低研发投资 (%0.0，创新薄弱) | | 价格动能 | 7.0 | strong | RSI 55.5 动能积极，50日均线之上 | | 新闻情绪 | 6.0 | medium | 多数为买入 (61%) | **公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7视角) | 名称 | 立场 | 背景 | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +8.7% | | Ken Griffin | bull | 资金流 · 50日均线之上 | | Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 56 | | Klarman | neutral | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +8.7% | | Buffett | bull | 质量 · ROE 评分 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +8.7% | **公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## 芒格视角 - **结论:** 合理估值 - **财务健康:** Moderate - **安全边际:** Weak - **利息覆盖率:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## 技术水平 - **RSI(14):** 55.5 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50日均线:** $997 — hisse %1.5 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200日均线:** $951 — hisse %6.4 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **成交量 (10日):** -4% ## 历史表现 (4个季度) | 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 FY25 | $4.28 | $4.24 | BEAT | +3.1% | | Q4 FY25 | $5.87 | $5.80 | BEAT | -2.9% | | Q1 FY26 | $4.34 | $4.27 | BEAT | -0.0% | | Q2 FY26 | $4.58 | $4.55 | +0.7% EPS | +1.6% | Q2 (2026年3月5日): EPS $4.58 vs 预期 $4.55^[FMP]，超出 +%0.7。D+1 走势：+1.6%^{[FMP D+1]}。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。 ## 3种情景 ### 情景 A · 超预期 **Q4 EPS > $4.95 + 资本支出纪律** 阈值：EPS > $4.95^{[FMP est]}。目标：突破中位数目标价 $1100^{[FMP target]}；高目标价 $1175^[FMP] 为上限。 ### 情景 B · 符合预期 **EPS ≈ $4.95 + CapEx < $1.3B** 阈值：EPS ≈ $4.95^{[FMP est]}，Q4 资本支出 < $1.3B^[FMP]。目标：在当前价 $1012^[FMP] 与中位数目标价 $1100^[FMP] 区间内盘整。 ### 情景 C · 未达预期 **EPS < $4.80 或 CapEx ≥ $1.3B** 阈值：EPS < $4.80^{[FMP est×0.97]}。目标：当前价 $1012 低于 200日均线 $951^[FMP]，若持续拒绝，则激活 $808^[derived] 支撑位。 ## 风险提示 ### {{segment}} 低于阈值 Q2 季度：EPS $4.58 vs 预期 $4.55^[FMP]，超出预期，股价 D+1 +1.6%^[FMP]。 ### 对 OpenAI 的依赖 Q2 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。 ### 内幕交易 Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。 | 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 | |---|---|---|---| **净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q2 FY26 ### 资本支出冲击 Q2 季度资本支出 $1.3B^{[FMP cashflow]}。 Gary Millerchip Q2 transcript: "Capital expenditure in Q2 was $1.29 billion."^{[Gary Millerchip transcript]}. Q2 营业利润率 %3.7^{[FMP op margin]} — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。 ## 华尔街共识 - **中位数目标价:** $1100 (+8.7% upside vs current $1012) - **高 / 低:** $1175 / $769 - **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 22 / 12 / 2 - **分析师数量:** 12 (上一季度), 131 历史总数 ## 额外财报电话会议洞察 ### 1. new_warehouse_openings **主张:** COST expects 28 net new openings in fiscal year '26 and is targeting 30-plus new openings per year in the coming years. **证据 (会议记录):** "We currently expect to have 28 net new openings in fiscal year '26 and are targeting 30-plus new openings per year in the coming years." **数据:** 28, 30 ### 2. digital_sales_growth **主张:** COST's digitally-enabled sales saw personalized product recommendation carousels drive over $470 million of e-commerce sales in the quarter. **证据 (会议记录):** "In Q2, our personalized product recommendation carousels drove over $470 million of e-commerce sales, and our newly modernized product display pages are driving incremental sales on our dot-com site as well as increased traffic to our same-day sites." **数据:** 470 ### 3. membership_renewal_rates **主张:** COST's U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.1%, down 10 basis points from last quarter; and the worldwide rate came in at 89.7%, unchanged from last quarter. **证据 (会议记录):** "In terms of renewal rates, at Q2 end, our U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.1%, down 10 basis points from last quarter; and the worldwide rate came in at 89.7%, unchanged from last quarter." **数据:** 92.1, 10, 89.7 ### 4. membership_growth **主张:** COST ended the quarter with 82.1 million total paid members, up 4.8% versus last year and 147.2 million cardholders, up 4.7% year-over-year. **证据 (会议记录):** "We ended the quarter with 82.1 million total paid members, up 4.8% versus last year and 147.2 million cardholders, up 4.7% year-over-year." **数据:** 82.1, 4.8, 147.2, 4.7 ### 5. kirkland_signature_value **主张:** COST notes that Kirkland Signature (KS) items typically offer 15% to 20% value compared to the national brand alternative with equal or better quality. **证据 (会议记录):** "Kirkland Signature remains a top focus to deliver great value for our members with KS items typically offering 15% to 20% value compared to the national brand alternative with equal or better quality." **数据:** 15%, 20% --- *数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-03)，Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*