--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/zh/earnings/dis last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:07:33.539Z --- # The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Q4 FY2026 财报预览 > **[stale-preview-note]** 注：本预览发布于2026-05-06财报之前。请以最新公告为准。 > 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-03T21:07:32.789Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。 --- ## 快速摘要 | 字段 | 值 | 来源 | |---|---|---| | 价格 | $103.08 (▼ -0.65%) | fmp:quote | | 市值 | $182.6B | fmp:profile | | 52周区间 | $89.61 – $124.69 | fmp:quote | | 财报 | 周三 6 5月 | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS 预期 | $1.49 (+3% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 营收预期 | $24.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 超预期连胜 | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | 评级 | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | 分析师中位数目标价 | $137 (+32.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | 芒格结论 | 低估 | derived | ## The Walt Disney Company — Q4 FY2026 预期 Q4 季度共识：营收 $24.8B^{[FMP est]}，EPS $1.49^{[FMP est]}。连续 8 个季度超出预期^{[FMP earnings]}。 ## 快速概览 **得分：** B+ · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 4/6 · **Moonshot：** 44 = MoonshotScore 44^{[MoonshotScore]} + Council 4/6^[Council]。Form 4: 0 笔交易^{[FMP Form 4]}。 ## 观察列表 (4个指标) ### 1. Svod Growth Drivers 订阅收入的增长是由定价、北美和国际增长以及捆绑销售推动的，双人、三人和最大捆绑包都表现良好。 > "然后，罗伯特，在订阅方面，收入增长是由几个因素驱动的。首先，当然是定价，其次是北美和国际增长，第三是捆绑销售，双人、三人和最大捆绑包都表现良好，并推动了参与度和收入实现。" > — Hugh F. Johnston, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Experiences Revenue 体验部门的财政年度开局稳健，季度收入首次超过100亿美元。 > "谈到我们的体验部门，我们的财政年度开局稳健，季度收入首次超过100亿美元。" > — Robert A. Iger, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Avatar Zootopia Success 《阿凡达：火与灰》、《疯狂动物城2》和《莉萝与史迪奇》成为我们最新上映的票房超过10亿美元的影片，《疯狂动物城2》也成为好莱坞有史以来票房最高的动画电影，票房收入超过17亿美元。 > "《阿凡达：火与灰》成为我们最新上映的票房超过10亿美元的影片，与《疯狂动物城2》和《莉萝与史迪奇》一起在2025年创造了30亿美元的票房。《疯狂动物城2》也成为好莱坞有史以来票房最高的动画电影，票房收入超过17亿美元，并稳固地确立了自己作为热门新系列的地位。" > — Robert A. Iger, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Film Studio Success 迪士尼的电影工作室在2025日历年创造了超过65亿美元的全球票房收入，成为过去十年中第九次全球票房第一。 > "从我们的娱乐部门开始，我们的电影工作室在2025日历年创造了超过65亿美元的全球票房收入，成为我们有史以来第三大的一年，也是过去十年中第九次成为全球票房第一。" > — Robert A. Iger, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore 支柱 | 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 | |---|---|---|---| | 营收增长 | 5.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: 健康增长 (+%10.0) | | 毛利率 | 4.0 | medium | Q1: 平均毛利率 (%35.8) | | 经营杠杆 | 1.0 | weak | 营业利润率平均 (%14.9) | | 现金流储备 | 3.0 | weak | FCF 为负 ($-2.3B，需要外部融资) | | 研发投入强度 | 3.0 | weak | 低研发投资 (%0.0，创新薄弱) | | 价格动能 | 7.0 | strong | RSI 54.5 平衡，50日均线之上 | | 新闻情绪 | 8.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (84%) | **公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7视角) | 名称 | 立场 | 背景 | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +32.9% | | Ken Griffin | bull | 资金流 · 50日均线之上 | | Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 54 | | Klarman | bull | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +32.9% | | Buffett | neutral | 质量 · ROE 评分 3/5 | | Munger | bull | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +32.9% | **公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## 芒格视角 - **结论:** 低估 - **财务健康:** Moderate - **安全边际:** Strong - **利息覆盖率:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## 技术水平 - **RSI(14):** 54.5 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50日均线:** $101 — hisse %2.1 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200日均线:** $110 — hisse %6.0 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **成交量 (10日):** -11% ## 历史表现 (4个季度) | 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.45 | $1.19 | BEAT | +3.0% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.61 | $1.45 | BEAT | -2.0% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.11 | $1.05 | BEAT | -1.7% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.63 | $1.57 | +3.8% EPS | -0.2% | Q1 (2026年2月2日): EPS $1.63 vs 预期 $1.57^[FMP]，超出 +%3.8。D+1 走势：-0.2%^{[FMP D+1]}。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。 ## 3种情景 ### 情景 A · 超预期 **Q4 EPS > $1.49 + 资本支出纪律** 阈值：EPS > $1.49^{[FMP est]}。目标：突破中位数目标价 $137^{[FMP target]}；高目标价 $151^[FMP] 为上限。 ### 情景 B · 符合预期 **EPS ≈ $1.49 + CapEx < $3.0B** 阈值：EPS ≈ $1.49^{[FMP est]}，Q4 资本支出 < $3.0B^[FMP]。目标：在当前价 $103^[FMP] 与中位数目标价 $137^[FMP] 区间内盘整。 ### 情景 C · 未达预期 **EPS < $1.45 或 CapEx ≥ $3.0B** 阈值：EPS < $1.45^{[FMP est×0.97]}。目标：当前价 $103 低于 200日均线 $110^[FMP]，若持续拒绝，则激活 $93^[derived] 支撑位。 ## 风险提示 ### {{segment}} 低于阈值 Q1 季度：EPS $1.63 vs 预期 $1.57^[FMP]，超出预期，股价 D+1 -0.2%^[FMP]。 ### 对 OpenAI 的依赖 Q1 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。 ### 内幕交易 Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。 | 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 | |---|---|---|---| **净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q1 FY26 ### 资本支出冲击 Q1 季度资本支出 $3.0B^{[FMP cashflow]}。 Q1 营业利润率 %14.9^{[FMP op margin]} — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。 ## 华尔街共识 - **中位数目标价:** $137 (+32.9% upside vs current $103) - **高 / 低:** $151 / $132 - **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 27 / 4 / 1 - **分析师数量:** 2 (上一季度), 112 历史总数 ## 额外财报电话会议洞察 ### 1. film_studio_success **主张:** Disney's film studios generated more than $6.5 billion in global box office in calendar year 2025, marking their ninth year as number one at the global box office over the past decade. **证据 (会议记录):** "Beginning with our entertainment segment, our film studios generated more than $6.5 billion in global box office in calendar year 2025, making this our third biggest year ever and our ninth year as number one at the global box office over the past decade." **数据:** $6.5 billion, 2025, ninth ### 2. avatar_zootopia_success **主张:** Avatar: Fire and Ash, Zootopia 2 and Lilo and Stitch became our latest release to cross the $1 billion threshold, joining Zootopia 2 also became Hollywood's highest-grossing animated film ever, earning more than $1.7 billion. **证据 (会议记录):** "Avatar: Fire and Ash became our latest release to cross the $1 billion threshold, joining Zootopia 2 and Lilo and Stitch to mark $3 billion titles in 2025. Zootopia 2 also became Hollywood's highest-grossing animated film ever, and one of the top 10 highest-grossing films of all time, earning more than $1.7 billion and firmly establishing itself as a popular new franchise." **数据:** $1 billion, 3, 2025, $1.7 billion, 10 ### 3. experiences_revenue **主张:** The experiences segment had a solid start to the fiscal year with quarterly revenue exceeding $10 billion for the first time. **证据 (会议记录):** "Turning to our experiences segment, we had a solid start to the fiscal year with quarterly revenue exceeding $10 billion for the first time." **数据:** $10 billion ### 4. park_expansion **主张:** Disney has expansion projects underway at every one of our theme parks, and is preparing to welcome guests to the new world of Frozen at the completely reimagined Disney Adventure World at Disneyland Paris. **证据 (会议记录):** "We have expansion projects underway at every one of our theme parks, and next month, we're excited to welcome guests to the new world of Frozen at the completely reimagined Disney Adventure World at Disneyland Paris." **数据:** — ### 5. disney_cruise_line_expansion **主张:** Disney Cruise Line recently launched the Disney Destiny, and is preparing for the launch of the Disney Adventure next month, which will be our first ship home-ported in Asia. **证据 (会议记录):** "At Disney Cruise Line, we recently launched the Disney Destiny, which has received outstanding reviews from guests. We're also preparing for the launch of the Disney Adventure next month, which will be our first ship home-ported in Asia, bringing immersive Disney storytelling to more people globally than ever before." **数据:** — ### 6. svod_growth_drivers **主张:** Subscription revenue growth was driven by pricing, North America and international growth, and bundling, the duo, the trio, and the max bundles all doing well. **证据 (会议记录):** "And then, Robert, on the subscription side, revenue growth was driven by a couple of factors. First, of course, was pricing, second, both North America and international growth, and third was bundling, the duo, the trio, and the max bundles all doing well and driving both engagement and revenue realization." **数据:** 13% --- *数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-03)，Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*